12.31.08 2008: The nation
turned increasingly divided and intolerant
Fomented by the propaganda developers one-quarter
picks blue and one-quarter pick red and half refuse to play the reindeer
games.
Too bad some folks will close their mind to the
point they will only listen to a handful from amongst the chorus. Some
clam up and can only hear the lower vibrations whilst the higher notes
call and respond from a full orchestra - swirling around their clouded
vision. Such is the tragedy of our time.
I’ve learned from everyone I’ve met over the years
here. I surmise the wisdom each has imparted as we’ve passed he hat has
aided my endeavors and kept those cold chills blowing in the world from
dampening the hearth keeping my world warm.
Best wishes to all in 2009.
12.31.08 End Year Performances
$834.50 Price of Gold on 1.1.08
$880.80 Price of Gold 12.31.08
Dow was down 33.8% in the same period. The S&P
performed even worse.
Gold protected against both inflation and
deflation, just as it should.
12.29.08 Back from Christmas holiday
Breaking News: The 1994 edition of the booklet
Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options
has been amended to reflect changes in the Options Clearing
Corporation's rules and those of certain options markets.
Source: Etrade
12.21.08 Time to Sell Your
Business?
12.20.08 New York Times covers their own, sinking together
12.19.08
The State of California Cannot sell bonds, any bonds.
The states’ credit rating is on the steep
and slippery slope. This week the Department of Finance and The
Legislative Analyst (E. Hill) report the state 44Billion in the hole
over a two year period.
Earlier the Sac Bee and Fresno B
(carrying the AP line) reported just infrastructure bonds were no longer
moving. However the Pooled Investment Board is no longer issuing ANY
state Bonds.
The complete inability for the press to
report anything regarding a factual account of the state’s or nations
financed, much less the investigative reporting of such, provides the
opaque and sickenly sweet icing on the empty calorie cake, rotting from
the inside out.
http://www.fresnobee.com/384/story/1083068.html
Note that the largest financial story of
the week has ZERO comments on the column, in one of the states largest
demographic areas - Fresno. Ho hum, maybe we can get
conversation started on which movies opening this weekend are worse
(worse than the headlines).
12.18.08 Someone else posted,
salient point:
I lifted the post entirely (no link available):
has'nt anyone learned
the lessons of 911 ? -
the RCA dome was imploded today. thousand pounds of dynamite and
thousands of man hours to set up.
when all they had to do was light a kerosene fireball outside and
set some small office furniture on fire inside.
poof ... building comes straight down
12.14.08
Why American’s Don’t Understand Finance
Part 334.2, section A SUB 2.33, Item 7
Paragraph 4:
Lack of Basic Math Skills.
Witness:
“The national price for unleaded gas has
dropped more than 125 percent from a year ago. Diesel prices have fallen
more than 80 percent.
From:
http://editorial.autos.msn.com/landingpagepickups.aspx?cp-documentid=763257&landing=pickups&topart=pickups&icid=711>1=22013
Wow, when the value of your one-dollar
coin goes down 100% it has no worth to anyone. When it goes down 125%,
you are willing to give me the dollar and an additional quarter for my
troubles?
12.14.08
The Private Corporation Federal Reserve states it feels no reason
To explain to congress or the lowly
citizenry – much less the taxpayer –
Where the billions/trillions of bailout
money went.
"Dec. 12
(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve refused a request by Bloomberg News
to disclose the recipients of more than $2 trillion of emergency loans
from U.S. taxpayers and the assets the central bank is accepting as
collateral."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=apx7XNLnZZlc&refer=home
BTW, in case you were really curious –it
went directly to the Chinese and some politically connected bankers,
politicians and friends in Illinois and New York.
Next…
12.14.08
In Search of an Equities Market Bottom: Indicators
Only 2% of stocks on the NYSE are above
their 50 day EMA.
Apparently the lowest this indicator has
ever been.
As determined by Chuck Carlson and
reported by Gabriel Wisdom
Hi indicator is that equities are
oversold when 40% of stocks are trading below their 50Day EMA and stocks are overbought when 70% are trading above the 50Day
EMA.
12.10.08 28-day Treasury notes now trading at negative
interest rates
A very dire situation, first time that has happened since 1929.
12.10.08 Just ANOTHER 650 Scientists
Who are blowing the whistle on the global warming scam:
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog
12.10.08 Poor California (really poor!)
Supposedly with a deficit of $11.2, $13.4, $30
Billion dollars. Whatever. The CAFR doesn't agree. What another bogus scam. All
out looting in broad daylight. For that matter, if the deficit actually existed,
why not follow the simple advice that I personally gave our last treasury
secretary:
1. Overturn proposition 13. That will free up Billions of dollars in short; a
sustainable tax base.
2. Allow the Glamis gold mine and others in Jackson, Rand Mountain and Red
Mountain to operate.
3. With the newly mined gold, mint the California gold specie again.
4. Issue a new 100-year State of California gold bond - actually backed 10% by
physical California gold-coin. The state would have the highest credit rating on
the planet of any government entity for the past 150 years.
Problem over.
12.10.08 Day Without a Gay
The Gay-out was a complete bust. Nobody noticed, much less cared. I guess it
worked if their goal was to make a laughing stock out of their cause.
Heck, if you don't need the work why not less someone who whines less take the
position?
12.10.08 Oh, poor Obama.
Not even in office yet and he is already caught up in a payola scandal. Only
fitting for the most corrupt individual to ever hold the office, and that's
saying something! How much do you think he paid (souled his sole) for the
last job (or the current one?). How will he pay for his wife's new exotic
metal ring now that he will no longer be getting a cut from the bribery offered
for his previous job?
More on the fools-gold plated affirmative action fraud parading as a statesman:
http://isteve.blogspot.com/2008/12/blagojevich-obama-link-runs-via-black.html
And poor 'ol little Jesse Jackson Jr. His daddy has to work overtime making an
ass of himself at the Republic Windows and Doors company so his son will have
the cashola for the payola. Will cost a little extra now, mr. prospective
crooked senator #5.
12.9.08 Blagojevich - the wretched soul - tried to take on
the wrong crown, the bankers.
At least he wasn't 'Kennedied'. But, he did try to cut off the spigot for
Bank of America. A big no-no. Now his life is ruined. Just yesterday he
stated the State of Illinois would no longer do business with Bank of America.
Ostensibly b.c. they would no longer to lend to the Republic Windows and Doors
company.
http://www.huffingtonpost...
Oh yeah, remember the other guy who tried to expose BAC for predatory lending
practices, in collusion with the Bushites.
His name was former SEC commissioner and NY Governor Elliott Spitzer!
As documented here:
http://www.washingtonpost...
Three weeks later he was ruined.
BAC is one of the 9 chosen ones. They are supported at YOUR expense.
Thanks to R. Paul for pointing this one out, he knows...
12.05.08 Haggard Wisdom, or
another Merle Pearle
From – Are the Good Times Really over -:
First line:
“I wish the dollar was still silver, it was backed,
and the country was still strong…”
Another gem, the last line of - America First -:
“Why don’t we liberate these united states, were
the ones who need it most. You think I’m blowing smoke, boys it ain’t no
joke, I make 20 trips a year coast to coast.”
Though – kinda hard to swallow anymore after
watching him back hillary. Just another show.
Quite a troubled thought, should the panic of 2008
lead to the roughest patch in US History.
The panic of 1907 gave us a nasty recession not
ended until the Federal Reserve formed to gain us entry into WWI.
The Panic of 1929 brought that depression which
really didn’t ameliorate until the mid 1940’s and didn’t end until the
1950s.
The Depression of the late 1850s proved especially
troubling. Hard to pin it on one or two event, more like an organic
decay. The rot ate so deep that the Civil War couldn’t flush it all away
and weren’t on decent footing until re-construction bore fruit in the
early 1870s.
Sobering thought – those 11, 22, or 14 year periods
of trouble in the past all contained a very vicious war, not at the end,
but in the middle or the depression.
12.5.08 Question for the
Canucks
Where does the 1.95 come from for every vote, and
where does it go?
12.4.08 On the Cost of Housing
Mine has been going down!
Over 12% this year! Got a nice fat check last year from the county and one
yesterday, as a point in fact, from my favorite bankrupt mortgage screwer -
Countrywide.
The lower tax rate will allow me to higher a rental agency to rent out and
manage this place when I leave. At least that's the plan.
Read someone else bagging on Vallejo and sent this
reply:
Are you aware of many cities amongst the oldest in
western North America with populations over 100k, a major university
(and two other college campuses), amusement park (which alone brings in
several hundred seasonal workers a year from foreign countries), and
major transit hub (recently stolen by the state) that don’t have any
‘bad dudes’?
Further, why would those employees leaving the
public service sector fear the budget re-negotiation unless they were
amongst the lowest performing members of the force? A public sector
RIFF historically clears out the worst performing actors. Not sure who,
exactly, are those individuals are that you indicate are quitting and
‘going’ elsewhere (presumably to other fire/police forces?). Local
fire/police are not hiring to any large degree. The majority of those
who left this year simply retired. Some of the more forward-thinking
ones left the state a couple years ago at the height of the housing
market to return home to childhood locales in the Midwest as both a
financial and family decision.
(Note: Vallejo-bashing actually supports my
personal interests as I am looking to buy additional property in the
city. The residential housing sector has the highest value-to-price
ratio compared to the 18 other counties I track in California and
Nevada.)
Interestingly enough, just this morning I received
the reimbursement check from my mortgage company. You see, the county
LOWERED our taxes by 55% since I purchased the single family residential
last October.
The city is actually making some very sound, if
difficult financial and political decisions. They, as a group, finally
let the cat out of the bag earlier this year when they admitted the city
could not meet financial obligations made by previous administrations.
The county, along with thousands of other cities, counties and states
across our bankrupt nation, simply haven’t grown the courage to admit
the situation and begin to work on solutions. That’s the reason Vallejo
receives the press- not that it’s different - only that it moved first.
I chime in only because your premise is otherwise
quite sound and the pejorative statements subtract from such. The
entire topic (mass scale bankruptcy) fascinates me to no end, has been
an area of inquiry of mine for years, and thus attracts my attention
here.
12.3.08 The Russian Purge of Lenin continues to fascinate
Though another one just as fascinating, and rarely mentioned, is the German
purge of the late 1840's. The burgeoning democratic revolution failed. Many of
the agitators left the country and headed for north and south America. The
Germans who settled in the states greatly advanced the nascent technological
revolution in the Ohio valley and growing western cities of Cincinnati and Saint
Louis and the mining, assaying and metallurgical efforts in California and
Nevada.
One notable difference in those purges of past totalitarian states and the
systemic authoritarianism of today: Back then the intellectuals were purged as
enemies of the great state leviathan. Today the intellectuals are tenured
tentacles of the propaganda state, espousing voluntary credit slavery to the
great beast.
12.3.08 Another great chart; quite concerning at that:
Gary Kaltbaum yesterday also pointed out the brewing
bubble
In the 30-yr long government bond.
T-bills now yielding at a 50 year low.
12.3.08 Gold behaving just as
it should in a deflation!
12.1.2008
12 days of Christmas cost
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27984361
Gold drops over 11%
but the laying geese dive over 33%. Interesting how labor and
performing arts are just now rising in price, chasing the price push of
the commodities which peaked months ago. Still, a rise in paycheck of
3%, against a backdrop of doubles and triples in the cost of necessities
and a drop in assets provides for a Christmas dinner without much fat
this year for the working people.
As usual, MSNBC
butchers the article. Even their attempt at providing a link to the
story originator, PNC, was hijacked by a forex scammer. Typical
MSNBC fare/failure.
Too bad since PNC did
a good job with the story this year:
http://www.pncchristmaspriceindex.com/CPI/index.html
Though as a point in
fact, not as good as my 2006 write-up, which I won't top here either:
12.17.06 The cost of
living in 2006: The 22-year 12 Day's of Christmas Index hits an all time
high.
You've heard of the big
mac index, how much it costs to buy a meal at any mcdonalds in the world
serves as an indicator of the
value (purchasing power)
of both the host country currency and the value of the currency used to
purchase the meal. The 12
days of Christmas index
is an inflation gauge that measures labor and goods necessary to
purchase the 12 categories compared to
the year previous. Let's
examine:
http://www.pncchristmaspriceindex.com/ and
http://www.pncchristmaspriceindex.com/educators.htm
Of course, PNC bank - as
party-line establishment as they come toes the federal line and
determines that the 12-day index is only
up year-over-year of 3.1
percent, almost exactly the published fairy-tale number (fittingly)
promulgated by feds as the CPI.
Lets really work the
numbers:
A partridge in a pear
tree.
Making a double top high
this year? Perhaps the h5N1 virus has spooked players in the partridge
future markets?
Two Turtle Doves
Still at a twenty-two
year low and flat-lined? Why hasn't the cost of doves caught up with
partridges? Perhaps the whole dove
industry is selling soft
this year because peace doves are certainly not evidently in demand
anywhere on this planet given the
looming and active civil
wars afflicting a moderate percentage of the world's recognized
political countries. At any rate, soiled
doves seem to be
multiplying around my neighborhood now that wal-mart ain't hiring like
they once did.
Three French Hens
Given the inelasticity of
the market, obviously a product of France's rigged market system.
Four Calling Birds
Since these birds
actually talk, and give some indication of their state of mind and
general maintenance costs required to maintain,
they have proven a real
market - albeit one increasingly expensive and at 22-year highs.
Five Gold Rings
Yeah right, those haven't
appreciated any in value over the last year either (snicker). Gold is
only near multi-year highs and the
supposed cost of a ring
is near the five year low. Guess they keep factoring in more chinese
slave labor into the equation. Given
the shape of things on
this side of the globe they could add in the wages of US workers next
year for a further decrease...
Six Geese a Laying.
Well, if their product -
the golden egg isn't widely sought - then the bird flu might keep the
ganders' kin near all time highs.
Seven Swans a Swimming.
Not much movement in this market. Maybe the closing of the last US Pink
Flamingo producing
company in Florida this
year has something to do with it...
8 Maids a Milking.
Man o' Man, I see those
Merry Maid cars everywhere, so I don't get why this input has remained
so hard over the last few years!?!?!
And given the imputed
labor rate of $41.21 hr. to 'milk' I'm not sure what union the Milking
Maids have, but they're doing a fair
pinch better than the
merry maids I've seen.!
9 Ladies Dancing
I suppose, naturally,
that all depends on weather you go the lap-dance route where you think
you are getting off on the cheap by
using all those
one-dollar bills but it all adds up on an hourly basis or wether you go
the outcall-route using Craigslist and hire the
'ladies' on a contract
basis.
10 Lords a Leaping
Not sure who's looking
for that type of action, but they keep paying more every year!
11 Pipers Piping
More expensive every
year, guess nobody plays the flute anymore. And the casinos sure don't
hire much live music anymore, not
that the Blue Men Group
is really into flutes or anything.
12 Drummers drumming
Hey, Little Drummer Boy
is one of my favorite Christmas tunes for sure! Pah Rum pah rum pum in
another bottle of rum,
everybody's invited!!!
So much for the twelve
daze of merry haze, now, lets take a look at what it costs to just light
the Christmas tree:
Cost of power generally
up 10% year over year (this on top of a very large increase in 2005).
Cost of copper near all
time highs (needed to distribute power from production plant to your
home).
Cost of tree: flat
Cost of permit to chop
tree: Up again/still.
Cost of presents under
the tree. Up; see above.
Sure, if you don't plan
on celebrating you could save a few quid. Pass the rum...
12.1.08
The Equity Markets are Cratering Again
I like how the
headlines spout out how the markets were down huge today because of
reason x or y. However, the financial 'press' failed to note the
'coincidence' that Hilary was nominated Secretary of State today.
the markets tanked for that reason. Looked at how the equities performed
(tanked) the first two days after Obama was nominated. Same thing.
12.1.08
Letter to the Editor - New York Times Company; Dec 1, 2008
To the Editor:
Citigroup's troubles should come as no surprise. In 1998, when people
like Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin were busy persuading Congress to
eliminate New Deal firewalls between financial services sectors, many
advocates warned that this would create unaccountable and potentially
unstable financial institutions that were too big to fail.
News of taxpayers' huge bailout of Citigroup ("U.S. Approves Plan to
Help Citigroup Weather Losses," front page, Nov. 24) prompted us to dust
off a series of comment letters we submitted to federal regulators
starting a decade ago.
In a detailed comment opposing Citigroup's merger with Traveler's Group,
filed in July 1998, the Neighborhood Economic Development Advocacy
Project and others warned the Federal Reserve that "the size and
complexity of the proposed Citigroup would strain the banking industry
and the economy," and that failure of one affiliate "could lead to a
bailout using either deposit insurance or funds appropriated by
Congress."
Hundreds of billions of dollars in bailout funds later, we would hope
that President-elect Barack Obama's economic advisers -- many of whom
are Rubin proteges -- take the lessons of recent history to heart.
What's needed is a strong new regulatory system that serves the public
interest, not one that serves corporate greed.
Sarah Ludwig
Josh Zinner New York, Nov. 25, 2008
The writers are co-directors of the Neighborhood Economic Development
Advocacy Project.
Well, those folks pretty well nailed it. Thing is, future events are
very carefully orchestrated and telescoped well in advance. Not that
hard to determine future macro-events when one is really paying
attention.
12.1.08 Great article on a Mexican Mining Ghost Town -
Mineral de Pozos
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article/comments/view?f=/c/a/2008/11/30/TRGQ146SJ1.DTL
The SF Gate typically publishes the most puerile content, such as it is. The
business and economic pieces are especially juvnile - designed by necessity for
a 3rd grade level understanding of economics - the base San Francisco
readership.
However, the rag has produced a number of good travel stories over the years.
These decent articles, of course, receive little to no mention via follow-up
comments. This particular article has four comment, sand only two further
develop the discussion.
. Naturally a 30 year story about roman polanski receives scores of comments and
those most illuminating articles define gays as the 'new negro' are good for
about a thousand comments; each one more banal and ridiculous than the one
preceding. This passes for public discourse today.
11.24.08 From Sorrow and
Pain Come Great Art.
Hemmingway developed many of his themes while
serving as an Italian medic-taxi driver in WWI.
Imagine the opus and masterpiece we shall all
witness 10-15 years from now arising from the next few years.
11.22.08 No way the Rest Of
the World will forgive US debt
Too much hatred of America, especially within our
country.
The people will demand that the very idea and
ideals of America fail and whither into disgrace. So, the latter.
There will be a few steps before we join the NOW of
course. In fact, we will be forced to BEG to enter the NOW. First we
will default on our T-bill, ditch the dollar, completely operate the NAU
with under the banner of the Amero (google hits now up over 1.5 million) or equivalent, etc. Only when the NAU
falters will the asian powers listen to our entreaties. Hope I’m wrong.
11.21.08 Future trouble in municipal water and waste water
operations.
Indeed, it will get really ugly. Those suburban
special irrigation districts we be rolled into the municipal systems by
fiat decree. The large city districts will be nationalized. The small
special districts will have their water rights stripped (nationalized)
and will be held out to dry. The waste districts will likely be left
unchanged but their waste produce will become a state commodity (reused
waste water is the potable drinking water for our cities over the next
century).
Further, the successful desalination projects will
nationalized for 'national security'.
At the American Water Works conference I attended
last month spent some time at the sessions where the industry briefed on
the status of desal plants/brine disposal. That and1 re-use of waste
water into drinking water were the big topics. FWIW.
11.19.08 Notice how GLD held
733 again today, closing just over 734?
The more times is holds there the stronger the
support becomes. Alternately, if the prices plunges through that
support, with heavy volume, the downside will be even further (maybe
lower than 710, the next minor support or even 650/670, the next major
support). When the price went below 733 a few trading days ago it was
on rather light volume, and thus it doesn’t trigger a sell. The move
must be more than 3% below the support on intraday basis to cancel the
support. Stops should be on a daily close basis.
Unfortunately, the general market weakened quite a
bit further today. The banking index is very technically bearish (see
here for more on that:
The real news today was not the posturing over the
big 3 automakers –they’re already bankrupt. Rather, the new crux of the
matter is will CitiCorp bring down the federal reserve. Citi is one of
the nine banks the Fed must preserve at all costs – and they are in a
freefall. Their last big move to open retail deposit windows in
California was a huge failure. They are now suffering cash flow
problems. If the Fed does save C, there should be a very nice and
tradable rally in the BKK (banking index) and market in general.
11.19.08 Selling Prized
Possessions
Went to the local B&M coin dealer.
He was in the paper today:
http://www.timesheraldonline.com/ci_11020757?source=most_viewed
People are now selling their gold/coins/jewelry
just for gas money. He hasn’t seen it this bad since he bought the shop
in 1987.
Buying has dried up. He was disappointed with how
little I bought off him today. Hey, I just went to the Santa Clara show
four days ago – give a guy a break!
Told him I’ve been putting more money into ammo,
plumbing supplies, water treatment gear, provisions, etc. He thought it
was a good idea, unfortunately.
Told him I just hoped I was wrong. I always wish
I was wrong more often.
And maybe I am. The house behind me had been for
sale. Not too long really, 3 or 4 months. The new neighbor bought it
after getting in a bidding war with someone else. He is immediately
dumping money into the place, fixing it up. The sales in my town are
going up. The average price is still declining b.c. the homes in the
hood are really sinking. However, home prices in the better
neighborhoods seem to have leveled off.
Folks use to make fun of my city b.c. it declared
intention of bankruptcy. I replied: “Your town (county/state/fed) are
bankrupt too but you haven’t yet figure it out/admitted it yet – whereas
we have. Just a little ahead of the curve –steep as it is.
Now the neighbors feel the curve:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/19/MNHA143FHK.DTL
indeed they ARE deliberately destroying
The country. i've been saying so for years. most
people used to just roll their eyes. not so much anymore.
Weight of evidence? Arose from a slumber of denial?
Do you think the motive has just recently become deliberate destruction
where before it may have been gross incompetence rather than organic
malfeasance?
"A global economy requires
a global currency."--Paul Volcker
http://www.singleglobalcurrency.org/
11.18.08 Current Democrat
Level of Discourse
http://www.littledemocrats.net/Obama.html
11.16.08 Someone asked what I thought of this article,
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-g-20s-secret-debt-solution-27996
So I told 'em:
Yes I already read this article and I've read
Larry's stuff before.
I do not think gold will go to tens of thousands of
dollars an ounce, that’s just something used to sell newsletters. Gold
will protect purchasing power when the dollar collapses, but it won't
buy 15-20 times as much goods as it currently buys when the currency
collapses.
Instead I see this as the most likely scenario:
The US politicians are well on their path of
destroying the nation through debasement of its currency and destruction
of our industry. Some more of their plan is simply being fleshed out
this weekend.
Very likely excerpts:
The US will default on the T-Bill in the next 36
months
The dollar will collapse
US politicians declare it necessary to destroy the country in order to
save it, force North American Union.
- The dollar will be destroyed to save it.
- The Amero, or similar, will trade as the NAU
currency.
- The Amero will have some 'link' to the price of
gold. The NAU will fix the price of gold to somewhere between 1,000
-1,500 per oz.
- GLD, comex, and monex will all default on the
gold contracts.
- Actual gold will trade on the black market for a
perhaps 100% premium above this price. (This scenario is already being
rolled out. The official price of gold is 720 and silver at 10. The
reality is its extremely difficult to find gold bars/bullion in quantity
below 775 and silver rounds below 12.
- Although gold will not be confiscated, it will be
illegal to trade gold for its true value. Those that trade it on the
black market will be prosecuted for terrorists acts.
- US presidential order will cease most gold and
silver mining in this country as ‘barbaric’, unnecessary and
‘unsustainable’. Government will seize the mines and nationalize the
industry, just as with the banking industry, the financial industry, the
credit industry, and soon the auto industry.
- As the NAU slips deeper into recession, the amero
will give way to electronic currency completely in order to starve the
‘terrorists’ (those that refuse the beast) of cash and food to survive.
Folks will clamor for the implantable RFID chip that allows them to
stand in line for government bread and cheese.
- Most americans will continue to vote demopuclican
and support –nay embrace – absolute criminals as they implement the
worst and most vicious police state ever to grace the planet. We are
well on our way.
Here’s a good summary of the folks currently
laundering your tax money to their friends in the banking industry:
http://thetradingdoctor.com/updatesandalerts_nonsubs/11-12-08_TheWorldIsComingToAnEnd.html
By the way, I went yesterday to the Santa Clara
coins show, one of the largest on the west coast. Although fewer and
fewer people have available money, they are still buying gold and silver
bullion when they can. Coin prices are fairly stable, though declining
for most series, having peaked in 2006.
All paper gold is a scam, it has always collapsed.
I have hundreds of documents showing just that. Only physical silver
and gold will survive. That is why the banking and credit industries,
supported by US government policy, has attacked the gold price ever
since the US began in Ernest to devalue the US Dollar.
As usual, hope I am wrong. Regrettably I haven’t
been wrong enough over the last eight years, as all documented here:
However, there are actually a number of people
waking up – there may be enough in the resistance movement to change the
NWO plans that the G20 are currently hatching up this weekend in Wash.
DC. Amazing how many people thought I was full of bunk since I
abandoned mainstream political economics in 1987 now start to see the
issues for themselves. Too bad it took the collapse of the US economic
infrastructure for it to sink in for too many individuals. The majority
are blind, but irrelevant anyway.
FWIW.
11.16.08 Santa Clara Show Report
Invested about 5 hours at the show yesterday,
Saturday, between 12:30 and 5:30. Show attendance seemed lower than
previous years, no doubt due to both economic realties and the gorgeous
weather outside. You couldn’t design a better November day.
I spent some quality time with 6 or 7 dealers.
Most were doing an ok show, one a good show, and one thought they might
lose money for the first time ever at this show.
Much of the chatter I overheard regarded
(decreased) expectations for the upcoming Baltimore show; state of the
overall market more so than the coin market; and the Bill Weber
collection of So Called Dollars.
Weber Collection:
Looks like some mighty fine items from this
collection shall be auctioned off December 2nd in Reno.
Here’s the pic of the auction catalog for the
collection:
The fascination with the oddball So Called Dollars,
slugs, tokens and other exonumia resonates with me. Coinage displays
the financial history and mettle of a culture in 3-Dimesnions. So does
those OTHER avenues which display financial trade, advertisement and
documentation of socio-economic events and development: exonumia and
ephemera.
I have been trending away from coinage and more
toward the esoteric, banal and just plain earthy exonumia.
Something Old, Something New:
Personally, I sold off a couple gold 2.5 dollar
coins and bought more financial ephemera.
Here’s the obverse of the 1839 2.5 dollar coin I
sold – pictured here only as the reverse since I now see it only in the
rear view mirror (and realize what type of future I can realistically
expect in the coin photography arena – har!).
.jpg)
Over the past few years my focus shifted from coins
to tokens, financial paper and documents. These ephemeral financial
pieces document our shared economic heritage and financial history.
Namely, I focus on recreating, via economic
archaeology, that web of financial transactions which binds us
together. My specific targets are the various mining and resort towns
in Nv and Ca. For example, I search for a postal cancel of a town long
forgotten, a real picture photograph of the town (including the post
office if possible), a piece of scrip or a “good-for” token from the
local bar, and financial documents (leases, deeds, receipts, bills of
goods, checks, and financial corresponsive) which ties together all the
mercantile and financial history of the camp.
As just one example, Byron Hot Springs in Contra
Costa County was at one time THE place to play for the rich and elite of
the greater San Francisco Bay. Now just ruins, here is one presentation
of her previous gravitas and place in economic society:
This token is supposedly just one of two known.
(Hotel AND sanitarium, you have to love that
combination).
Of course there are other ways to preserve and
present the same topic, from a different side of the token. Here is but
one man’s artistic license at doing so:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/lostamerica/sets/72157600260134466/
Since the resort has been well photo documented,
and I have a sample of the traded exonumia, the last step in my
financial forensic triumvirate exercise is to find a piece of financial
ephemera remaining from the operation…perhaps a deed of title transfer.
There is always a remaining thread to track down,
perhaps NEXT show!
11.12.08 Does the Average Joe have Tangible Assets?
I go to garage sales every Saturday between May and October.
at most sales I ask: do you have any coins, stamps, old photographs, etc.
my experience is about 50% say no, and they are telling the truth.
about 25% say yes, but what they have is usually crap. however 1/3 of that group
will have between $100-1,000 on hand in bullion/coins.
The other 25% does have tangible goods put away. About 2/3rd of them do not want
to sell; they might take my card but rarely call. About 1/3 have something, but
either lie to me and say no, or simply smile with their eyes.
Very very few people WANT to sell their tangible assets, they'll hold on as long
as possible.
11.11.08 Another Inventory of the Little People's Economy
Little People and their Litter: Main Street Economics, Installment Four
Summary of bank slips I picked up off the ground outside the local bank ATM.
245.96
124.55 (Inquiry) [Do it do it take it all out!]
6192.41
334.06 (Inquiry)
5258.79
592.62
4522.55
635.43
Average: $2,222
Of course, the biggest indicator was the fact that some guy tried to rob the
bank 20 minutes before I got there. He handed the teller with a note saying he
had a gun. Guess the tellers were cooperating but he high tailed and ran away -
escaping on foot.
Previous results:
Average Balance on March 15,
2008: $4,259
Average Balance from Oct 24
07 $815
Average Balance from May 07
$100.87
11.11.08 Big uproar about the 'sad' Tent City in Reno
(Government-sponsored depression)
Tent Cities on the Rise Reno Nevada CBS news
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-kq2w4N4eA
I noticed that Reno Tent city video article
mentions that the situation hasn’t been this bad in 23 years. That means
1985-6. I lived in Reno during those years and had various odd jobs
downtown. Those included door-to-door jobs. A few things I noticed:
The money I made I mostly blew on good times, booze
and drugs – but a portion I put into my education, tools and vehicles.
The education and tools paid off. Eventually, instead of partying every
day I was in m own house sleeping a split-shift so I could attend the
classes I needed while working overtime.
Most those other folks ONLY put their $ into booze
and drugs. I interacted with many of the guys on the streets. Their pay
would go to dime bags and a bottle.
Back then the church helped out those down on their
luck. Now the government is stepping in to fill the roles of the church
AND the private sector. This will ensure the recession turns into
depression – by design. See the financial sector as EXHIBIT A.
I competed with some of those baby boomers for
jobs. I remember those who last had a job in Oregon, pumping gas, and
were now trying for a Reno warehouse job. 23 years later, they are still
trying for the same job. What have they done to better themselves in
the past two decades?
Only difference between those folks and me is I put
more and more money (and effort) over time into education and tools (and
investments) and less and less into booze and drugs. Notice those in
the tent city watching TV? That’s what it will get you.
Personal choice, personal responsibility.
Funny, never heard those lines in the ‘interview’.
Though I did see plenty of crocodile tears from the
losers. Save it for the camera girls.
11.10.08 Why GLD Should Hold 733
Here is a good example of basic technical analysis. On the Yahoo 5-day chart you
can see why 733 is the number I used in my last post:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GLD#chart7:symbol=gld;range=5d;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Notice how 733-ish served as the base for Mondays rally, resistance level last
wednesday and thursday, and a support level last Tuesday and Today.
On the two year and five year chart you can see why the 650-670 level
will/should provide longer term price support (draw an invisible lines on the
bottom prices since 2005), and why I think there is a good probability (40%)
that GLD could go to that level medium term (three months)
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GLD#chart4:symbol=gld;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The 60% chance is that it goes up from 733, we'll see.
11.9.08 Live.com Rebate still at 25%
At the get-go, from the first round, we maxed out the returns. At the beginning
you could get $250 back per item but was limited to 3x transactions per account.
Then six per account. Currently you can get the rebate 12x per account.
A few things to keep in mind.
- There is a 2,500 cap per year
- If you sell the item before the rebate you may not (depends) get the rebate
back (there is a conflict between the ebay and MSN rules)
- If the seller returns any portion of your initial payment, you may not get the
rebate
11.9.08 Collections and Provenance
My stance is that once a fine collection is assembled, the current or assembling
steward (the 'owner') ought take a picture of such, and document for future
enjoyment.
there have been several very nice collections that I've seen broken up in the
last 15 years (including Sy Redd, Bill Harah, Fitzgerald, Liberty Belle, etc).
Even when the pieces are given a provenance for future owners (e.g. Redfield,
Binion, Fitzgerald etc.) the whole of the collection - the majesty and thematic artistry
directed by the original collector, is lost for good.
Does Texas have many un-patented gold placer claim properties available on the
open market?
11.8.08 AIG Fraud and Failure (Same 'ol Same 'ol)
Recently I shopped around for a new term life insurance policy.
thankfully AIG was not on that list due to previous
misconduct.
Northwestern did make my list. I had a term policy
for two years and cancelled. They simply lie at most every point
possible. Just this week I received notice that I am party to a class
action lawsuit against them regarding, you guessed it, sales and
marketing.
Ended up getting my term policy through Prudential.
Not even sure I'll stick with them. Term is so cheap, my last policy
through Prudential was 20% cheaper than with Northwestern, and that is
after I aged another two years.
What I am looking for now, and what most people do
not have even though they need, is disability insurance.
11.6.08 'Change'
Ho Hum. Dow down another 440 points. Worst presidential week stock action
ever and worst two-day action since the 87 crash. decades. El Prez. Barry Obama's first appointment is a petty
partisan operative.
Emmanuel served as a policy group-think enforcer
under Clinton. Like most other dutiful employees, he received a
turn of leisure and graft on the board of Freddie Mac.
And previous Clinton partners in crime Reich, Rubin
and Summers are eagerly rubbing their mittens together relishing yet
another shot to foist them into the public cookie jar.
So much for change.
11.6.08 An Email I would have written to Ray Luccia
If I thought he wasn't completely beholden to the powers that be:
From his podcast: Nov 6, 2008 at 50:56
Caller (Bob in Ct): “Where does the federal reserve
system get its money that it can then loan to other banks I guess they
do it as ‘overnight’ or ‘discount rates’.
R.L.- Luccia "They get it from the government
(taxpayers)."
They also get fees (from member banks
Do they pay anything to get this money
R.L. - "No"
Bob: "If they print it they inflate the currency
and they if they borrow..." (cut off mid-sentence by R.B.)
R.B.- Statement One: “You’re worried about stuff
you don’t need to worry about”
Statement Two: There are no shareholders in the
federal reserve. Nobody gets a benefit out of it as a share holder.”
My editorial:
Neither of you answered the Bobs’ question.
The answer that RB provide “general taxing
authority” is simply incorrect, very much so.
So my question to the brain trust, what exactly do
you have to lose by actually answering the guys question and stating
what the authority is for the federal reserve and how it works/
Are you worried someone will cancel your show?
Phil Grande gets away with it. Sure,
businesstalkradio dumped his show but bloomberg picked him up.
What's wrong with integrity?
11.5.08 Looks like the Market voted on Obama
Dow down almost 500 points.
Ca Prop 8 - requiring the state constitution specify that marriage is between a
man and a woman will never happen. The state supreme court will declare it, like
most of the will of the people, null and void and anathema to their particular
brand of authoritarian rule.
Obarry's first political appointment: ultimate insider hack job Rahm.
"Change"! Har!Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
11.4.08 Sure I vote
Haven't ever voted for anybody that actually won, but sometimes the proposition
votes go my way.
Today I had the distinct pleasure of voting for someone with integrity (yes,
there were actually three individuals on the ballot with integrity. its just
that none of them were demopublican). I cast my vote for the very
honorable Alan Keyes.
A real man, with actual administrative experience, values and vision.
Most americans took the lazy route, voting for the one party system. Regrettably
they'll get the government they deserve.
10.29.08 Possibly the shortest long term trend:
Since 1950 worst 25yr period provided invested in
the S&P 500 yielded an annualized 7.9% rate of return (included
reinvested dividends)
10.28.08 Looks like that key reversal in GLD last week
held.
Buy one-third position now, one third position if
GLD breaks above 753 and another third if gold breaks 775
Set stops (half) at 733 and 710,
Sell one third at 808 and on third at 840. Hold the
last third and sell if it breaks below 733.
Bought one-third position in GDX now @18. MUCH
looser stops.
These are short/medium term positions only.
FWIW.
10.27.08 "gurus"
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/
Guru’s who
got the panic of 2008 more or less right):
Joe
Batattaglia
Jim Rogers
(called for FNM bankruptcy)
Peter
Schiff
Joe Morales
Phil Grande
Mark Faber
Fred Hickey
(Baron’s round table)
Bill
Fleckenstein (though it was through the stopped clock method)
William
O’Neill
Jim Rorbach
James
Deporre
Warren
Buffet
Mark
Leibovitz (Phoenix)
Jonax Max
Ferris
Jonathan
Hoenig
Lowries
(Power index)
Losers
(Who got the panic of 2008 wrong)
All the
rest
10.27.08 Pennsylvania Treasure
http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A536573
When you can’t mine it, you have to find it.
10.22.08 Possible Key Reversal in GLD.
10.17.08 Rest in Peace Levi Stubbs
Saw the Four Tops about four years ago here in town. They still had three of the
four original Tops in the band. Sounded awesome. The Baritone passed away
just a few months after we saw them play, as I recall. Now their incredible lead
singer has passed on also. A great talent is lost, just about the end of an era.
10.15.08 The Cult of Corruption
A former Minerals Management Service employee blows the whistle.
The Government Inspector General backs his account
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/10/14/oil.whistleblower/index.html
The Interior Department refuses to comment.
Of course the DOI refuses to comment. What
can they say? "Well, we tried to drag down every bureau to the
decrepit level of Bureau of Indian Affairs, we just need a couple more
years during the Obama administration to meet our goal".
My guess is they overshoot the goal, by a wideshot.
10.12.08 The Government almost
always Stages some Faux ‘Economic Crisis’
When the political leadership is ready to change
allegiances.
This allows the next administration to implement
the next piece of the draconian plan to remove your control over your
money, finances and government.
2008: Witness the ‘Financial Panic’
2000: Clinton Gives up the Ghost – Stock Market
Crash of March 08
1992: “It’s the Economy Stupid”. Rigged 1991
recession serves its purpose
1987-8: Artificial stock market collapse (though
administration retains control)
1978-80: Volcker system shock and Iranian Popcorn
Show lift unemployment and inflation
1976: Political Oil Embargo scam plays through; IMF
stages Great Britain sterling crisis
1972: US completely moves to a fiat monetary system
after the French challenge the ability of the US to pay its debts in
gold. US repudiates sound money – suspended any gold or silver backing
of currency. The paper financial demise begins in earnest.
1968: U.S. Congress repeals requirement for gold
reserve to back the U.S. currency
1963-4: Kennedy signs EO 11110 ordering US Treasury
to print silver-backed US Notes instead of Federal Reserve Notes. In
kind, Kennedy assassinated and US defaults on silver coinage. (To repay
the favor, the government puts Kennedy on the first debased half
dollar).
an on and on it goes same as it ever was…
The intervening years show much less socio-economic
and fiscal snafus.
10.12.08 The Current Financial
Crisis isn’t a Crisis at All, it’s a Systemic Breakdown
The Housing Crisis isn’t a crisis at all, it’s a
planned meltdown directed by the Clinton Administration, The Clintons
contrived a race relations panel in the 1990’s to hatch scheme to
increase home ownership among minorities, mostly blacks. The reason
more blacks didn’t own homes in the first place is because public
education system has taught lie after lie for generations, especially
regarding finance. As a result, the lower income individual, such as
those that rely upon public education entirely, had no sound financial
education or background. Hence, they couldn’t master the economic and
financial concepts that would allow for home ownership under previous
underwriting standards.
The powers that be forced Fannie Mae to relax
underwriting standards for the poor, especially urban poor, to get the
minorities into homes they couldn’t afford under mortgages they couldn’t
understand. The architects of this policy were warned of, and knew full
well, the ultimate end game their disastrous policy would play out:
Housing Crash.
Steven A Holmes and the New York Times laid it out
in 1999:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9c0de7db153ef933a0575ac0a96f958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1
10.10.08 Gold and Silver had been Holding up Very Well
Even with the recent strong rise in the US Dollar, until today. So, why
the smack-down in metal prices today?
Well, look at Goldman Sachs performance of late, and rumors their health is
becoming 'stove-up'.
Goldman controls the gold short positions. Knocking 20% off the price of
gold and silver helps settle positions over the weekend.
10.10.08 Heritage Galleries Issues their Don't Panic
Communiqué
"Collectibles, especially coins, remain extremely liquid. Over the last three
months, as Wall Street has been reeling, our auction and private treaty sales
have risen steadily. Every day people who are in businesses where capital is no
longer readily available turn to us for liquidity.
Our $35 million September 24-27 Long Beach Expo auction of coins and currency
registered more bidders (over 14,000 of them!) than any auction in our history
*Our number of successful bidders is up by 11.5%.
*Our number of lots actually sold in each weekly auction is up 39.95%.
*Our average lot value is up 8.49%.
*Our total sales volume is up 43.34%
Rare coin prices, along with many other collectibles, actually rose during the
Great Depression, as well as during the recession and accompanying real estate
and stock market collapse of 1974. During the oil crisis of 1979, we saw coin
prices rise dramatically, rewarding owners at a time when their stocks and many
other assets were plummeting."
10.10.08
Someone Left Me with a nice Bon Mot
“Just
remember, the only people that think gold and silver is a form of
payment is Goldbugs, you will have to find a goldbug grocer to get your
grocery's.”
Yes,
eventually EVERYONE becomes a goldbug. Its just that THEY become bugs
out of necessity, not foresight.
10.9.08 Suggestions from someone who really IS losing the
Family Farm:
Couple
things you might research:
1. Do you
know anyone with dough who wants ownership – but not necessarily
possession - of the property? If so, then look into an All-Inclusive
Deed of Trust and a wraparound mortgage.
2. Farmland
Conservancy Program.
Some states
have this, some don’t. Essentially, the family sells part of the land
as an easement to the State – the state grants occupation and use of
land for some time, often until death of original owner.
In some
cases when a family cannot access Farmland Conservancy money’s the
Nature Conservancy and can access the money and pay it to the family as
cash. However, the Conservancy owns the farm and the family typically
can farm the land up until some date and they must then vacate.
3. If you
have no heirs, how about putting the land in a Charitable Remainder
Trust? If not actively farming, then lease out the land ( or water
rights + fallow land as carbon credits)?
Just some
thoughts…
10.08.08 Someone Tipped Me Off
Today is the feast day of St Andronicus - patron saint of silversmiths and
argentiers
10.7.08
Everything Runs on a Cycle,
Some are
better understood than others,
Many moons
ago i lived in a communal situation at college (54 students in four
co-joined open-floor houses -14 people per house).
An alpha
female would set the cycle. all the other women in the house would
follow her rhythm. this works up until there are five, six at a most,
women in the house.
Above that
number and a second alpha female will emerge and set the cycle for own
pack. the second pack is typically smaller. one thing that i noted was
that the second group seemed a more cohesive bunch than the first group.
Even more interesting, the women reported that apparently the alpha
female could change within the group, though I cant remember (nor sure
they ever told me) how they would figure that out if everyone was on the
same cycle.
There is
also a small percentage of women who will not follow an alpha's cycle.
interesting stuff, herd behavior at the base. occasionally we would all
discuss such group behavior en masse, so the above aren't just my
observations alone.
The guys
rather enjoyed the predictability. When that week onset, we generally
wouldn’t hang around and instead would socialize in the other three
houses. I imagine that this particular quirk of human biology helped
establish the first hunting parties (now down to just guys weekend out
or ‘poker nights’)
I have
never really read or heard much about this phenomena - don't think its
very well studied nor have others indicated much familiarity with the
topic. Compare search engine results for menstruation study with
‘cholesterol study’ or ‘smoking study’. Fascinating. Some hold the
position that womens health issues are under studied/funded, I tend to
agree. fwiw.
Years ago
they studied cycles in the nunneries. The nunnery studies may be double
blind, but the wrong pool. No Sex and no testosterone in the
environment effects the menstrual cycles. Additionally, the age bands
and their declining estrogen/progesterone levels - especially in the
alpha, cannot be discounted.
10.7.08
Went to a Stamp Show Yesterday
wow, was
that place moribund. actually drove there for the pinball fest next
door. best in the nation in just their 2nd year. their attendance was
up perhaps %100 Year-Over-Year. Kids, families, etc. Interesting
to see the pinball resurgence. A real and sensory game, not a video
illusion.
stamps on
the other hand, not sure what would bring that back? 18montsh-2years ago
I thought the hobby had a chance at resurgence. if not now, in another
20 years will folks really clamor for more govt paper? Perhaps the same
with baseball cards. Who cares about the overpaid cheats and criminals?
The innocence is gone and now so it goes with the denial. perpaps the
little giants (citizenry) is awaking from the slumber, and hungry for
the real deal.
10.05.08
You Ever Seen one of the Early american Card Decks?
The good
citizenry didn't believe in royalty so the decks had no jacks, queens
kings. Instead generals, pols and diplomats, etc.
saw one
displayed at this house maintained by the Colonial Daughters, the
Octagon House in San Francisco. Fascinating place. They had an early 7
dollar continental note. Also had a card game I had never seen or heard
of before (forget the name right now). I asked the ladies (both well in
years), they replied they had never known anyone who new how to play the
game. The layout looked similar to a Faro table, for those of you also
familiar with that game of yesteryear.
They asked
me to come back and give a talk on US monetary history.
10.4.08 From Poverty to Riches and Back Again in Two
Generations:
John Lee
Hooker owned a home in Vallejo, Ca , that he subsequently gave to his
daughter. She is about to lose the home to foreclosure. The
house is just a few neighborhoods away from mine. Frankly, the
construction isn’t so hot in his neighborhood. Our house was constructed
MUCH better. For that matter he should have bought a Victorian downtown.
I saw John
Lee play at a small show, maybe 100 of us there, a couple years before
he passed away. The guy still had the passion. Wonder how the other kids
are doing? Maybe he should have taught them basic finance in
addition to the 12 bar blues format.
http://www.timesheraldonline.com/news/ci_10637991
10.3.08 yep, as predicted - they blew the bailout down our
throats
and down our children's throats, and our grandchildren's throats...
Don't believe the hype. Only reason they passed this monstrosity is b.c. they US
Senate and most congressmen are owned by foreign financial interests. These
foreign interests are now demanding we pay back the loans. This was just a
starter package. A 'teaser rate' if you will. You know, deep down, what
happens next.
10.1.08 October is Here! The next three months...
...will be unlike any you've ever experienced so far.
Bailout:
Damned if they (90% they will), damned if they don't (10% chance of that)
The original three page abortion proposed by Paulson has now grown to over 150
pages. wOW, how did they write so fast? (har har, these provisions of the
Financial Patriot Act {and the provisions of the next bill and the one after
that} were written monhs ago).
If they do, We are de facto socialist country - in debt to foreign
masters (now its just you in debt, after the bill its your children and
grandchildren).
If they don't, The foreign masters will make a house call, on our soil.
The Triangle Attack:
In symbol, number, and design - the next hit will cut deeper than initially
appears.
Uncertain Election Results:
The past two elections were simply dry runs for the
Of course, and as usual - hope I am wrong.
9.31.08 Price of Gold vs. Price of Stamps
http://www.runtogold.com/Run_To_Gold/Run_To_Gold_Blog/Entries/2008/6/27_Cost_of_USPS_Postal_Stamps.html
Note that the credit squeeze of the 1950's was followed by the inflation (guns
AND butter) of the 1960's.
Will the cycle repeat/spin?
9.30.08 The Bailout Shall Return
Just a matter of time, likely days. The further bailout shall be named
Osama.
The current name of the bailout (thanks to Lew Rockwell):
[On Concurring in Senate Amendment With An Amendment]
BILL TITLE: To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to provide
earnings assistance and tax relief to members of the uniformed services,
volunteer firefighters, and Peace Corps volunteers, and for other purposes
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2008/roll674.xml
9.29.08 The Company Turns on its Own
Former CIA #3 gets ratted and rodded.
WASHINGTON (Reuters)
"The CIA's former executive director, Kyle "Dusty" Foggo, admitted
steering contracts to friend Brent Wilkes, who already is serving a
12-year sentence for bribing former Republican Congressman Randall
"Duke" Cunningham, the department said.
It said Wilkes, a one-time Republican fundraiser, had made Foggo a
standing offer of a high-paying job, and the two hid their relationship
from the CIA and used shell companies to conceal Wilkes's interest in
the CIA contracts."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080929/ts_nm/us_cia_contracts
In gangs, like the CIA, the capos lose their jobs AFTER they lose market turf
(drug routes and banking accounts).
CIA is getting outcompeted all over the globe. I saw them lose drug turf
in the 80's and 90s. Now they're losing their money laundering accounts.
Makes sense, US banks, manufacturing, media, entertainment and currency are all
losing market share. Their govt. criminals are also more efficient than our
govt. criminals.
9.29.08 The Bank Runs Continue
In the US, Iceland, Europe, and now begin in Asia.
Bank failures are not great, but NOT letting them fail provides an even worse
alternative.
9.29.08 The Bailout
It ain't about the money, its the principle. Are we a socialist or capitalist
country. What's a lousy 700Billion on the installment plan anyway, we just
passed 600B for the DOD and another 25 B for the car manufacturers in the past
week.
Ok, maybe it is about the money - like who gets to skiim off the top first...
9.27.08 Bank Runs Fail due to Stupid Depositors
This quote made me laugh out loud: "
"We came to
pull (money) out, too. We have a business, and we have a lot
of money in there, but we're safe. She (the bank teller) told me
it's guaranteed, and I believe her. She's a Muslim, I know her
and like her, and it's Ramadan, and you're not allowed to lie on the
holiday."
http://www.timesheraldonline.com/news/ci_10576372
9.26.08 Physical Gold
Shortage: US Mint Runs Out of Gold Buffalos
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8bc3d72-8b40-11dd-b634-0000779fd18c.html
9.25.08 Chinese Fake New Story About Mission in Space
Oh no, the chinese propaganda outlets lie too?!?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/3082804/China-fakes-reports-from-space.html
9.24.08 Of Course the Bailout will Pass and Succeed
The intention is to destroy what is left of our capital markets. In that
regard the traitors will succeed. The destroyers on the capitol hill warn that
should we not bail out the criminals on wall street, then a recession will
ensue.
All the chest beating and histrionics before the bill is signed simply provides
some sound bites that hapless pols can use in their nest election cycle to show
'how they were against the bailout from the beginning" (before the screws got
turned).
A recession is NOT a bad thing, it provides a necessary and beneficial
opportunity for the market to wean out excesses and weak hands so that another
boom may follow. However, Greenspan had orders to make sure that there was no
recession. by putting off these normal corrections, the excesses build to
a point where extreme fluctuations follow, eventually leading to an inevitable
crash.
9.23.08 The US Mail moves Slowest at the US Government
Headquarters
Congress irradiates its mail, slowing up an already slow and cumbersome process.
They want to make sure that only US-manufactured anthrax gets through the
screen.
9.23.08 The Financial Patriot Act (700+Billion bailout
bill)
Just like the patriot act, this bill was prepared months ago but was presented
to congress at the point of a gun with a full court press by the white house.
The mainstream press sits idly by, complicit to the crimes.
"White House Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto... insisted that
the plan was not slapped together and had been drawn up as a
contingency over previous months and weeks by administration
officials. He acknowledged lawmakers were getting only days to
peruse it, but he said this should be enough. "
http://www.rollcall.com/news/28599-1.html?type=printer_friendly
Same old playbook.
Let's examine some of the proposed lowlights...
Demands on the Taxpayer:
- A minimum of $700Billion (will grow to over 1Trillion), enough to saddle every
person in this country with $37,000 at the moment of their birth (in a addition
to all the other debt and entitlements currently estimated at a mere 48
Trillion). And no, this does not count interest.
- Millions of $ in Bonuses to CEO's who oversaw the largest financial failures
in written history.
- Paid welfare to the largest donors to the political campaigns of the current
Senate Finance and Banking Committee member.
Naturally, The plan demands NOTHING from these firms in return. The Treasury
Secretary will control over 1Trillion and will be accountable to no one for how
he spends it.
First things first, Paulson will fork over Billions of Dollars, taken from your
pocket, and give it to Goldman Sachs. Yes, for those keeping track Paulson the
current Treasury Secretary was a former Goldman Sachs CEO. His main job is
to line th epockets of his previous, current an future boss - GS.
The US senator plan on driving our once proud republic into a socialist
oligarchy in one week.
Yep, I listed to almost two full hours of the tripe this morning. Paulson's
wretched opening statement, all 21 senators rushing to say how "obviously,
something must be done immediately (meaning they will vote for it this week)
aka: but first, time to get some more pork into the pipeline and secure my next
job at Treasury/Goldmans Sachs/Morgan/Bear
One more time, the backgrounder:
The government creates the problem so that they can propose the solution, and
the problems perpetuate whilst ht etax rate crawls skyward.
Government programs rarely work.
Johnson's "great society' did not solve poverty in the US. It did, however, draw
out 15 trillion from working and solvent us households and bloated bureaucracy
to the point we see today.
Once government intervention enters the market place, the end result: failure,
becomes a certainty. The only speculation point is the time it takes to get
there.
The senators today, to a man (if there were any around) all stated "well of
course there needs to be more regulations, just not today".
Government intervention and the resultant regulations worsened the state of
markets into we devolved into the sad basket case we are today. The government
created a housing mortgage monopoly in FNM and FRE. They both, inevitably,
failed.
The government created the Community Reinvestment Act, which essentially forced
debt on urban workers without a sound financial education, much less the down
payment on a house they couldn't afford the payments on. Research how
Obama and his ACORN cronies pushed the debt into every nook and cranny they
could, creating a great contribution to the current mess.
Look at how badly the government screwed up this week (and the week before that,
and the week before that...).
The SEC and the Fed conspired to remove the uptick rule, in existence for almost
70 years - installed to prevent market excesses during the great depression. Why
did they do that? (A: to wring more money out of the horse they were riding unti
it finally gave up the ghost).
Yes, the same SEC that force fed a fire sale of Bear Stearns to their comrades.
They got the assets, your children get the debts.
But hey, the former SEC chief sure got what he deserved. Can you imagine paying
money to a woman for sex. OMG, what a complete shocker, The criminals running
our banking system into the ground get million dollar bonuses of your money
(they already lost all the shareholders money and need a new host to suck dry).
You probably didn't even see the 180 degree reversal that the Fed had regarding
eliminating short sales against the financials. These same financial companies
had been naked short more gold stock shares than ever existed, fore years. they
just kept rolling over contracts into future months. But once they got a taste
of their own medicine (folks shorting the financial sector) they changed the
game in the middle to prevent short selling against their fair skinned babies.
Yet, they realized their gross stupidity and reversed the policy within a week.
The Wall Street Bailout Bill - a Financial patriot Act on Steroids. With the
Patriot Act, you just signed away your freedom. With this new act you are
signing away your first born. All with a hope that you will draw your pension
before your firstborns, justifiably, murders you in green blood.
One thing is for sure, the people get the government they deserve.
9.22.08 The Fed Waved Their Wand and Decreed that Goldman
Sachs and Merrill Lynch
were not longer mere investment banks. Nope, just like that - overnight - on a
weekend they became commercial banks. and are now able to accept 'deposits'
(more likely emergency funds of taxpayer cash) to shore up their flagging
fortunes.
And to think it takes me 10 business days to clear a check...
9.22.08 How Come the Senate Never Shored up Fannie and
Freddie When they Had a Chance?
Probably b.c. they were on the payola.
"Throughout his political career, Obama has gotten more than
$125,000 in campaign contributions from employees and political
action committees of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, second only to
Dodd, the Senate Banking Committee chairman, who received more than
$165,000."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSKSoiNbnQY0
9.20.08 Marshall vs martial law.
A play on
the Marshall plan. Back when we had the strength and temerity to force
our currency on the poor colored countries. The Marshall law will work
in the reverse. The poor countries will enforce their standard of living
on the formerly united states.
Remember,
the corner office is nice – but only as nice as the view outside…
9.20.08 Outlawing elements, oh most certainly not dear
serf.
We only
intend to ‘draft prudent legislation’, ‘formulate sound fiscal policy’,
and ‘promulgate fair regulations’ so that the economy doesn’t crash and
you don’t lose your job. But mostly, we love you and want what is good
for you. After all, if you don’t own Au bullion (as most plebes don’t)
then what do you have to fear/hide? Only the gold-selling terrorists
will be ‘regulated’.
Of course,
the ag/au elemental regulations are just a trial run for the big one –
carbon.
When the
Metals (as bullion) are Again Illegal
Yes, the
Powers That Be (PTB) will again make gold (bullion) illegal to sell (but
probably not illegal to hold or use as to allow for industrial
applications).
That black
market will make the metal even more valuable. In fact, the current
disconnect between the paper price and the true physical metal price
(not to mention availability) already forecasts that future reality.
When the bullion is made illegal (more specifically, price-fixed to the
new currency) there again will be an official rate and a trading price.
Those not honoring the 'official price' will be charged as 'criminal
terrorist unofficial money launderers'.
My current
supposition is that plat will not be monetized again but silver MAY be
(though probably not in the way we expect). We’ll go forward (not back)
to a bi-metal system. The PTB then play the Au/Ag and commodity/paper
arbitrage for the foreseeable future (the 'official criminal money
launderers). Look at how Ag/Au prices have traded out of sync just this
week!
The
government will make gold bullion illegal to own, but ‘agree’ to buy
everyone's at higher prices.
That’s a
good start, for sure. The powers that be will continue to short paper
gold down to 650. meanwhile physical Au, if you can find it, trades for
$1,200.
Then the
gov offers a GREAT buyout at 10% over spot, offers to buy physical gold
at $715 and floods the press with bon mots about how everyone made 10%
and how happy you should be to receive that level of return in these
'uncertain economic times'.
everyone
who refused to sell goes to prison, or worse.
9.17.08 Govner Arnie of California grew a pair today.
Really.
Stated he will veto the state budget passed yesterday by the legislature. The
budget of one of the worlds largest states. If only the legislature would
decrease as fast as the budget.
My favorite quote of the day, by the semi-honorable and semi-honest (at least
today) Nevada Senator (D) Harry Reid (speaker of the house):
'..there will be no legislation from congress this year on the financial
situation since nobody in congress knows what to do..."
well, that never stopped them before!
9.17.08
THE PANIC OF 2008
Today,
9.17.08, the Bond Market crashed as the 13-week T-Bill yield crashed,
the largest decline in over a half-century.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCMdnmwJqCaM&refer=worldwide
Here’s the
visual:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EIRX#chart1:symbol=^irx;range=3m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Regrettably, as the US and Russian governments panic due to significant
declines in their equity markets, they make the same mistakes.
International fascists and the nationalist communists are executing
(poorly) the same playbook by trying to hyper inflate the crashing
state-sponsored enterprises. Regrettably, the deflating bubble
burst seams on all fronts and the populace stateside begins to panic.
The large and dumb money crashed the T-bill while the semi-smart flee to
the shining shield of precious metals.
Gold rises the largest amount in recent (250-year)
financial history.
Still, I don't get it. All this talk about
difficulty of settling derivative books with each other.
Why don't Russia and the US trade state banks and get is over with? a
fair lose-lose trade for everybody!
Oh well, wonder what’s on TV tonight…
9.17.08 Personally, moved no money nor made any trades this
week
completely comfortable with our positions and distribution.
feels good, like having a wee bit of physical stashed away somewhere...
9.17.08 A Week of Incomparable Financial and Physical
Storms:
An island of gold amidst a sea of paper panic...
9.14.08 The Crisis is always
announced on a Friday, and Solved on a Monday
Fascinating how they only need 48 hours to solve
all the worlds problems.
Except this time...
9.14.08 Nixon’s price
controls:
August 15th, 1971. Sunday Night.
9.14.08 Back in the good old
days (free markets)
$10,000 gold certificates were issued directly by
the US Treasury in 1882, as bearer instruments. They traded
infrequently and mostly to settle accounts between banks. These
certificates did require that the Treasury maintain the issued amount of
gold bullion as a redemption pool. At the time, the price of gold
was fixed at $20.67 per ounce. So one note was backed by 483
ounces of gold.
At tonight's price of gold (777), that 483.8 ounces
x 777/oz = $375,907. Today the banks only considered amounts 100x
that size as simple rounding errors in their negotiations with each
other. Naturally, the negotiations were not in good faith
either.
However, Zimbabwe does have a note useful in these
negations, a $100,000.000 note. Yes, that is much more like it,
thank you for the sound sense of finance Mr. Mugabe.
Today the us is much more like the Zimbabwe of
today instead of the united states of yesteryear.
Ho Hum...
9.13.08
Falling Financial Giants
Why did the
dollar lose over a full percentage point on Friday?
You could
say technical’s. Look at the 20 year USD chart and see 80 as a very
critical support/resistance line.
However,
you could also say fundamental reasons rule
It all
comes down to the bond market. The bond market in the US is almost 10x
the size of the metals and equity markets combined. All Fed
actions undertaken are to expressly support the bond market. Once that
fails the real troubles begin.
Look at how
the 30-yr mortgage rate dropped 50-60 basis points this week when the US
Treas. Sec. announced the nationalization (read: failure) of FNM/FRE.
The Fed
CANNOT support a strong dollar here, no mater how many times
Bernanke/Paulson and the other mouthpieces state it as policy.
Should they truly support the USD the bond yield rise, and China/Japan
stop buying the 10-year USTreatsury Note. Since the US has run on
debt since 1973 (default on Bretton Woods agreement) they powers NEED
international financing. Otherwise there is no more foreign infusion
which enables serial bubbles and the debt bubble collapses completely.
Of course, to some degree that has already started.
The short
term view is that the lowered 30-yr mortgage is bullish for us housing
as expressed by some here in this thread. However, why would the
Japanese/Chinese continue to by collateralized debt obligations, and
feed the middleman AND trust the failing CDO market (ala Bear Sterns and
Lehman AND their underwriters such as AIG?) when they can lower their
risk and continue to buy the 10-yr UST which is complicity supported by
the FED. Answer is, they won’t – they’ll continue to by the 10-yr
until they don’t. And then it gets real interesting…
In the
interim, we’ll have to satisfy ourselves watching financial giants fall
on the their neighbors petard. In the last week, Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac. The government nationalized the firms, socialized the debt (to the
taxpayers) and will eventually privatize the profit (amongst the good
ol’ boys club among the big three banks).
Beleaguered Bellweathers
First you
read about Bear Stearns sold off at the point of a shotgun. This
weekend the chief criminals are discussing the most expeditious way to
carve up Lehman Brothers (what remains) for themselves. Bear Stearns was
the country’s fifth largest commercial investment bank and Lehman
Brothers is the fourth largest. So, now two of the five largest
banks in the US have failed this year.
Additionally, two large institutional banks are in trouble. Will be
surprised if Merill Lynch and Washington Mutual make it through the
elections.
And even
more troubling, AIG, the worlds largest insurer lost almost a Full Third
of its market cap Friday. Not good.
Have you
every wondered who – exactly - was behind, who wrote the insurance
policy – for all those credit default swaps that emerged from the
collateralized debt obligation market? Yep, AIG was a big one.
Lehman is taking them down.
That’s the
thing about to big to fail. These financial giants all have interlocking
root systems.
When one
goes down…
[i.e. The above ground economy (derivative fiat) is shrinking and the
underground economy (trade) is growing].
9.13.08 Fairly Big Week for Elko County and her Mining
Industry
An Example of How to Ruin Your Name in the Mining Business
(read the comments too)
http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2008/09/12/news/mining_news/mine98.txt
Nevada Mining Exploration to Increase in 2008
http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080912/NEWS18/80912036&OAS_sitepage=news.rgj.com%2Fbreakingnews
Politicians and Do-Gooders Are Easily Confused when discussing Mining and Water
http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2008/09/12/news/mining_news/mine99.txt
http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2008/09/12/news/mining_news/mine98.txt
And Barrack to return to the town for a third time. Probably looking for a
nice county cabin to lay low for a while after he embarrasses himself in the
national sweepstakes.
9.12.08 Amazing to watch the Dollar Plummet off Resistance
at 80
9.11.08 Did we win the war yet?
snicker-
9.10.08 how about the worker bees today who bitch and moan
that the retirement age will be pushed back 5-10 years. how come they don't
complain their life expectancy grew by 15-20 years?
met this guy couple weeks back. he was showing off his new tungsten/carbide
knees. the joints move all kinds of directions.
just 10 years ago the guy would have been in a wheelchair...
there's someone out there STILL calling for a crash in the DOW.
so what if he's right tomorrow if the last eight years of yesterdays were mired
in despair and dread?
9.10.08 now, another release of a really wicked-great flu
bug
THAT will lower the housing stock. but so what, if you die you don't have to
make rent. if you live, you simply more the family out of the 4/2 on a quarter
acre out to the vacant 4/2 house on a farm with an irrigation system already
installed. where's the downside?
maybe your insurance (gold) gets cheaper...
9.10.08 So, who else read this week about that hack woman
pol
who wants to hand out 30k to every family as a 'living wage'? that's still
cheaper than what it costs to house the same family in prison. in fact, the
prison guard union in California is so P.O.d that the state isn't building new
prisons that they have initiated a recall effort against governor Arnie.
The banks are doing everything possible to stop taking on new foreclosures in
their portfolio. They've really ramped up the short selling and risk management
staff. Regarding rents, for every one family booted out of their home there are
three mexican/salvadoran/chinese/paki/indian/phillipino families who have saved
cash from the last 10 years labor while sharing a three bedroom apartment with
two other families. They have happily been taking that savings and putting into
homes that are 50-60% cheaper than they were 36 months ago. That won't stop till
the illegal and legal immigration stops. Which candidate will do that?
re: folks losing jobs. so the unemployment rate is officially six. it has to
double from here and then double again to match the unemployment rate in the
1930's. The government jobs program (especially the mandatory voluntary public
service and draft programs) should take up the slack all the way up.
Until, china/Russia get together and say enough is enough and stop funding the
debt?
Yet- why haven't they done that yet?
What, fundamentally, will change that equation?
and when the chinese stop bankrolling the us consumption, will all the
chinese-americans move home? or, will more chinese come over here and simply
take over the payments?
everyone will be provided for.
but you will have to carefully report your daily carbon credit usage to the
proper authorities (less u cant buy any bread)
9.10.08 Metal sales locally are on volume. So is
buying
My local dealer purchased a 180k coin collection and 330k in gold coin this
week. apparently a decently large week. 'twas all bought up this week too! and
it ain't happening at the published spot prices either!
9.10.08 Lots of gold bugs bitching up a storm.
how, exactly, are y'all down so much cash?
did everyone buy the last 20% of the 2005 run on margin?
all the metals and most all the stocks are still up 200-300% in seven years!?!
same for coins.
The math doesn't match the hysteria.
Hope you didn't buy your real estate in the last 20% of 2005 too...
9.10.08 Had wondered how long it would take
before somebody else began typing here about selling their metal/stocks and
scaling into real estate.
around here, prices are still declining - but the slope is stabilizing.
the rents are up strongly. place i bought last october would just break even
then. would definitely cashflow now.
not sure what the plan is to lower rents when more and more people are losing
their homes and still have just enough to pay for a roof over their heads.
also, its getting more and more difficult to build mutiplex units out here. if
the builder aren't in hock or cash-strapped, its the cities holding things up.
right now in a little nevada town I track - one project, a small hotel, is
on-hold b.c. the city doubled the sewerage hookup fee from 30 to 60K. You would
think that the city's would be clamoring for the dough right now.
But, their finances are so bad they are laying off the fee collectors...
9.10.08 Some folks want to nationalize the oil industry
These are the people who currently "oversee" the industry on behalf of the lowly
taxpayers: Department of Interior employees.
Let' see what the government watch dog says about our fine trustees:
WASHINGTON (Sept. 10) - U.S. government officials handling billions
of dollars in oil royalties improperly engaged in sex with employees
of energy companies they were dealing with and received numerous
gifts from them, federal investigators said Wednesday.
The
investigations reveal a "culture of substance abuse and promiscuity"
by a small group of individuals "wholly lacking in acceptance of or
adherence to government ethical standards," wrote Inspector General
Earl E. Devaney. Devaney's office spent more than two years and $5.3
million on the investigations.
The
reports describe a fraternity house atmosphere inside the Denver
Minerals Management Service office responsible for marketing the oil
and gas that energy companies barter to the government instead of
making cash royalty payments for drilling on federal lands.
http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/bbdp/interior-dept-staffers-accused-of-trysts/169274
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080911/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/interior_oil_scandal
9.10.08 The Monitor Ranch Just Sold
one of Nevada's larger deeded sites.
http://agrilandsrealestate.com/MonitorRanch.htm
She has two geothermal properties. One, Diana's punchbowl is one of the state's
greatest geothermal features. Too bad I didn't have a spare 4million. The old
owners sold to keep their construction business upright and tight.
9.9.08 You know what the drop in silver price means for me?
instead of tucking in a silver dollar into my nieces/nephews birthday card, i
give them two silver half dollars.
9.9.08 old comrade Ted Butler
my parents have one of his glossy mailers sitting on their kitchen counter.
offering two silver american eagles for the price of one.
i suggested they go for it. his silver is worth more than his advice.
9.7.08 Rest in Peace, Ralph Kovels
His antique newspaper column and books set the standard for thirty years.
9.4.08 1938 Classic Head $2.5
Values have risen nicely in this series
http://www.pcgs.com/prices/PriceChanges.aspx?c=757
Only 47K minted and u gata figure most of those were melted in the panics of the
1850s and 1860s (one thing I’ve always wondered, never seen in detailed writing,
is how much southern gold – especially C and D mints, were sent by the
confederacy to England in trade?)
9.4.08 California budget mess
The state still doesn't have a budget. The record for going without a budget is
Sept. 5th. We'll beat that this year (rah rah go team!)
Nov 15th is the next constitutional deadline. Nobody knows what that means b.c.
the state has never gone that far w/o a budget before. Looking likely this year!
Decent chance the state will 'shut down' when 11.15 rolls around. maybe good
timing with the 'october surprise' and all that.
october surprise brings november demise, in more ways than one...
9.4.08 but hey, san francisco bay just got a new biz radio
station
am 1220. bloomberg. what tripe they spew all day.
but hey, their timing couldn't be more perfect considering the type of stories
they have in their headlines over the next 4 months/4 years...
9.5.08 Yukon-Nevada sucks the gas pipe
Lays off hundreds. They couldn't run the Jerritt Canyon Mine (and you thought
Queenstake made a mess of it!
Newmont covers laid-off miner's bounced checks. N. Nevada Co. coffers in
decline.
(Time to blame management)
http://rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080903/NEWS18/80903033&OAS_sitepage=news.rgj.com%2Fbreakingnews
9.3.08 You've got to figure that Minn. is losing big$ over
this bust
of a convention. Maybe their legislature will try to annex/merge with N.
Dakota.
Have a friend who did some work on the gas field in N. Dakota last month. biz is
booming, housing is tight, etc.
I once went to N. Dakota for my vacation. Went to see the geographical center of
North America. Not much to see, but I saw it. And then went home.
Nice people up there. farmers always offered to let us camp in their fields.
The badlands are incredibly beautiful
Lebanon Ks is the geographical center of the lower 48.
Other faves: southern most point in the US; most eastern point in the US.
9.3.08 Found a house i Kinda Like
Called my mortgage borker (just did biz with him last October).
his phone is disconnected.
and now that starbuxxx ain't hiring anymore...
9.3.08 Nevada republican party
Essentially in a state of collapse. the ron paul organization is better run in
that state, by a mile. believe it or don't.
9.3.08 Poor old Gold Bugs
Gold is UP 20% Year over Year!
and yer all pouting and whining....
and buying government bonds??
There's financial 'advisor' fools on the radio bragging that their performance
is ONLY down 14% this year, whereas the general stock markets are down
18%.
yep, gold goes down in a deflation.
Because everything else is going down faster and further.
Out here - west coast style - people have been pulling their homes off the
market. why even bother. prices continue to decline and nobody can qualify for a
loan. and after labor day three of the available five buyers stop even looking.
Just scanned rents last week: very firm, up nicely (10%+) over last year. only
thing going up around here!
9.1.08 Is Collusion Between Buyers at an Auction Ethical?
Should two or more prospective buyers at an auction collude to keep prices down,
is that ethical behavior independent of the legality?
We know that its illegal activity as established per successful prosecution
under the Sherman Act.
But Ethical?
Two possible ways to answer this question:
A1. No. Societal ethics drive legislation. Hence, the society we operate within
is dictated by norms, mores and morals – all of which dictate legislation
against price fixing and collusion.
(I intentionally do not address contention – often factual – that most
legislation is not driven my ethics but instead is driven by special interest
groups.)
A2. Yes. Although illegal, price fixing and collusion is indeed quite common at
auctions, not just in the numismatic community. Have you ever gone to a regular
auction format for homes sold for tax liens or foreclosures? How about auctions
for storage rental unit property where rent was not paid and collateral is being
auctioned off?
At both of those regular types of auctions, a community of prospective buyers
builds around the process. Those prospective buyers, typically and eventually,
build a consensus and resultant working model which regularly distributes
property at the lowest cost to the prospective buyers as a group, and thus
individually.
For example, the tax lien buyers may work out a schedule where ‘Joe’ gets the
winning bid this month and ‘Sally’ gets the winning bid next month. Same with
rental auctions.
In BOTH cases, when a new prospective buyer arises at auction, the existing
network will lock out the newbie by raising their bids artificially, ensuring
the newbie does not win the bid and therefore discouraging future participation.
The group will then work out a mechanism to reimburse the high bidder amongst
them.
Since this type of activity is common and replicated across bourse floors and
item types – this demonstrates that our societal and individual actions, mores,
and ETHICS supports the activity.
Therefore, according to this rubric, the activity is ethical.
9.1.08 How to Excavate a Privvy
Think of a privvy as just another type of, err, dump. Use the same excavation
techniques. i.e. don't just start slamming the shovel in there b.c. u might
break glass or other objects (though the glass probably won't start until 2 feet
below ground surface. Bottles will probably be your best target. Use a small
punjab or rock bar or some lightweight poker. like those cascading walking poles
baby boomer use on their power walks. Stick this in the ground to determine soft
spots. Can't say enough about looking for soft spots. Use the standard grid
system to hunt and focus on soft earth. Once dug, soil requires hundreds or
thousands of years to regain previous structure.
Use a mesh screen if you can to filter through loose earth. Screen over a tarp
so you can just dump the soil back into the pit by lifting one side of the tarp.
Remember, broken glass and porcelain rise in a dump/privvy whereas whole pieces
sink.
You might look into renting electromagnetic equipment. EM 61 is a great method
to survey large areas for geo-tech abnormalities including voids (not just
metal). Use of geophysics can help you pinpoint underground structures, and
voids such as privvys and dumps.
At the US army forts I've been on each battery had its own dump. Remember, those
guys couldn't leave for weeks at a time and there was always someone there. The
dump is often as far as a 19-yr old man can throw out a leg bone. On an island
they likely dumped over the side into open water. Maybe you have a chance to
explore the shore at low-low tide? (bring the tide charts).
Might not be on the map, but look for underground exits that also may have been
used as a storehouse. Root cellars and ammunition buildings may have been
separate structures built away from the main fortification. Ash indicates an
outdoor kitchen (to early an era for burn dump). Look closely for the ash layer.
Too thick an ash layer (and one with shells) indicates indian midden layer.
You probably already are familiar with local vegetation enough to be able to
determine what may have been a disturbed area. You are pre-brick so look for
stacked rocks that may have provided privvy wall structure. Privvys were often
built just a few feet from each other.
Five point harness, carabineer, top rope, and piton/other protection open up a
lot more exploration. Consider a headlamp and dust masks.
If you are in unconsolidated material, be careful of cave-in. Make sure you are
comfortable with the right way to develop excavations and know the signs of weak
soil structure or an unstable feature. Water entering the pit from the side or
below is not good.
Death by cave in ain't fun.
And, think of how the embarrassing obituary would read!
8.31.08 Guy Rocha spotlighting a talk on Comstock Miners.
http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080831/NEIGHBORHOODS/808310337/1247
I had the opportunity to attend his presentation in the long past; great stuff!
8.31.08 Preview of Brian Wilson's new Album is out Today
http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/00/99999999/BRIANWILSON/80814001
The first, second to last, and last songs give a good sample of the albums
flavor and sound.
Not many artists can right three and four part harmony, consistently.
Certainly not his strongest work from one of America's greatest song crafters,
but it dwarfs most other offerings out there these days.
8.29.08 Palin
Listened to the usual boobs on talk radio here locally. None of them realizes
that nobody in the country cares about what folks in N. California feel about
the vice presidential picks. It comes down to what white males, and older
females, in Pa., Mi., and Oh. think. That is all. And in that respect,
McCain's first choice beats Obama's by a mile. Of course, may they both
end up with what they deserve for running our country down the toilet.
8.26.08 City employees use govt time/equipment
to blog about the city going bankrupt.
http://www.timesheraldonline.com/news/ci_10306145
hmmm... whatever happened to those good ol stories about the government
employees surfing kiddie porn during the work day?
ahh, the good ol daze...
8.26.08 Just Watched a mini-drama unfold
Housekeeper assaults her husband of 25 years for cheating with another woman.
Turns out the husband of the housecleaner actually didn't cheat with another
woman, he cheated with the 24-yr old thief who dresses like a woman, who looked
much more like a woman at 1:15 in the am after 8 cervezas than in the next
morning.
then the 24yr old cross dresser threatens to drop a dime on the husband (who
must protect his cultural machismo) unless he ponies up 6-0-0.
the husband steals from the hair stylist, thus setting up/framing the
crossdresser.
alls well that ends well.
i luv that episode!
Too bad it isn't yet up on Utube. Unfortunately. had to pay one of those
subscription sites $19.95. Luckily, Hillar can't keep track of her finances very
well and hasn't noticed that her credit card has been hacked (nasty trojan
virus) so i'm still using her card. hope she doesn't mind (not that she'll ever
pay it off with her own funds anyway)
No worries, the billing statement is very discreet. something like "AMEX
Expensive Coins, Botox, and Catalytic Converters"
8.26.08 Theoretical: Person A
is selling a coin for about $950
some guy B asks mr. A to throw in some junk to put it over $1,000. any
case law construes that as tax evasion?
(over 1k purchase not taxable in ca)
ok, now this scenario.
some guy in Nv wants to purchase from Mr. A in Calif. (Nv has a sales
tax on coin). he asks mr A, to ship it to another state where he
maintains a second residence.
legit?
ok, now the second residence does not qualify this year (per tax
return), but will qualify per an amended retrun submitted next year (for
this fiscal year)
same answer?
what if it isn't a second residence, just a rental - same answer?
ok, now I am the one asking someone to push the price over 1,000.
same answer?
what if there is no additional consideration (more silver) and I am just
willing to pay 50 more to save 75 on tax?
same answer?
here's the best one:
ok, now they aren't buying the coin at all, rather they are paying me
$50 face value (one american eagle gold coin) legal tender for services
rendered. i sell next door for $835 FRN.
legit?
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. (yes!)
extra credit, i buy a service for $50 American Eagle. they then
immediately sell for $835 FRM (spot, more or less). now they have short
term taxable gains of $785, right?
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
right!
now, why would they do that???
8.24.08
Hey, No longer do I set up my thesis
on the
difference between these past Olympics and the 2004 games (and why the
next one won’t precede a boom) than Yahoo lays out the some of the
reasons why (sort of).
http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/news?slug=ro-beijinglegacy082408&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
8.24.08
Olympic Booms?
How might
the overbuilt speculation, furthermore, in these condo developments
(many still half empty bode for Dubai or Bejing? How will Bejing
continue the development vector now that the infrastructure exists; is
not the current challenge how to utilize that infrastructure?
Look at the
debt saddling Greece, where is that boom? Did not Atlanta and
Nagano experience the booms Before the Games? And what boomlet LA
experienced after 84 crashed down back to reality in the 90-91
recession/housing bust.
Last week I
was on the Olympic Peninsula, listening primarily to Canadian
Broadcasting. Vancouverites were discussing how the Chinese games
would impact their own upcoming Olympics. Apparently there are no
plans to build a new arena to replace the 25-year old concrete
structure. The city and province realize nothing they can do can
top the propaganda/theater-of-the-cult blitz known as the 208 games.
Where’s the
next global boom?
(I’ve been
bullish on Brazil and Vietnam. So far – right on the former and wrong on
the latter fwiw).
Hint: it
ain’t Indonesia?
Why the
lack of a Boom in Indonesia?
Or, another
great example of a Can-Do-Attitude in a backwaters
(i.e. if we
can Do-It to you, run your name in the mud and company into the ground
with full complicity by the watchdogs, press and environmental corps, we
can DO IT to ANYONE.)
Who’s next
(‘Big Oil’)
Oh yeah,
that’s a longshot bet!
http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2008/08/25/news/breaking_news/abreaking1.txt
8.24.08
An Acquaintance is Moving to Panama
Let her
know I am interested in any running commentary they might provide.
Would also be interested in your due diligence on why you settled on
panama vs. elsewhere. What were the pros and cons of each country you
looked at?
Also,
regarding your final sentence that the US had not built anything larger
than a strip mall, not sure what context you are considering. What
about the dozens of high rise condo developments, most of them new
structures, in California, Nevada, Florida? Notwithstanding an
infrastructure boom in North Dakota and housing boomlets in parts Texas,
and the Carolinas?).
Personally,
I see the housing ‘crisis’ and high-rise vacancies as an engineered
‘problem’ that requires government ‘solution’ – namely: Subsidized
housing for 18 million illegal immigrants. See – all problems
‘solved’!
8.23.08 Spent Some Time in Port Angeles, Washington
Was able to hit the hot springs (Olympic, rustic, 5 miles round-trip hike) and
the craps table all within a few hours time.
My kind of place...
8.15.08 Went on Vacation
Came back to see the metals and mining stocks absolutely cratered. My
guess is that they all end the year up from here. But long term, not a
great forward looking indicator for any outcome resembling health and wealth in
the macroeconomic world.
Going out of town again next week..
8.15.08 Today’s bonds pay 4%, backed by nothing but
desperate hope
In 1898, the Rio Grande Western Railway Company
advertised bonds BACKED BY GOLD –in the amount of a $5,500,000 first
trust mortgage - which paid 4%.(New York Sun, June 3, 1889)
8.5.08 Not all Counterfeit Trades Equal
Or: How do Banks Get Rid of Their Counterfeit Currency?
Well, of course all of their currency is counterfeit since fiat paper contains
no gold or silver backing, as required by Article one Section 10 of the u.s.
constitution, the highest law of the land. Most of the counterfeit federal
reserve notes are clamored for by the common working stiffs. Over the past
couple years I have conducted a small anecdotal exercise. I have a counterfeit
$100 bill that I present to folks and ask them to tell me if they would accept
as a legitimate transaction. So far, about 5 individuals out of 85 have been
able to determine the bill's veracity. This serves as a great teachable
moment and education basis for the fundamentals of honest money.
The really bad bills - those made at home or by North Korea and and Chinese
print shops - won't even make it passed the lowly bank tellers. In these
instances, the bank is SUPPOSED to return counterfeit to the US TREASURY.
However, I know for a fact, that some medium sized banks offer counterfeit for
purchase to Coin Dealers in the San Francisco Bay...
8.5.08 Bought Stillwater Mining (SWC) around $7.67
Platinum looks oversold, short term.
8.5.08 Sometimes it Pays to be the Second Person to buy a
Rare Coin
http://www.news-antique.com/?id=784809&keys=Kagin-coins-gold-Baltimore
8.3.08 calcium carbide
Always thought that if there was such an animal as
a dedicated international terrorist, they would use calcium carbide
(mining grade), an inconspicuous mottled pellet (easily smuggled) and
mix into a few well sealed metal thermos containers [a decent oxidizer
could be smuggled into the insulating space of the thermos] to either
produce enough acetylene gas to flash or enough pressure to burst
through a planes hydraulic lines.
Alternately, mixing well with methanol could
produce a very nasty calcium methoxide cocktail; as would silver nitrate
forming silver acetylide another real ass kicker.].
What am I missing here?
8.2.08 FDIC takes over two more banks, issues warning on
others
They seem to have hit their stride, nationalize assets on Friday evening,
afternoon the people have turned their attention from work to more important
things like football camp and filling out forms in triplicate.
8.2.08 Ivins the Anthrax Boogeyman - Finally gets suicided.
Saves the FBI what little face remains. (Surprised they didn't blame Richard
Jewell again).
They simply ran out of ideas on how to spin the simple fact that weaponized
anthrax originated at US research facilities. Amazing he survived this
long, considering how many of his fellow microbiologist researchers have
befallen untimely accidents leading to their death.
TERROR: By the government for the government.
"A top U.S. biodefense researcher apparently
committed suicide just as the Justice Department was about to file
criminal charges against him in the anthrax mailings that traumatized
the nation in the weeks following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks,
according to a published report. "
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D929AF2O0&show_article=1
[Who Planted the First Anthrax Propaganda Articles?
(Who stood to profit)]
Or, remember this headline from the last week of September, 2001.
"Iraq 'behind US anthrax outbreaks'
Of course you don't remember the propaganda. however bet you do remember the
'soltiuon': the Patriot act, all ready written and staged - just waiting for a
cause and rallying point to dry the ink!
Oh well, at least his untimely death save we the taxpayers a couple thousand
dollars of expenses necessary to form a commission to get to the bottom of the
matter.
The New York Times, for her part, points out just some of the numerous, typical
and plenty FBI screw-ups, while generally supporting the entire charade.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/02/washington/02anthrax.html?pagewanted=2&_r=2&hp&adxnnlx=1217780236-4Oc/%20gsKyjWb44QbMS9OPQ#
These folks make fun of the whitewash job conducted by the NYT; granted - an
easy target to make fun of and generally ridicule for their support of the
police state apparatchiks.
http://www.atlargely.com/2008/08/a-suggestion-to.html
http://willyloman.wordpress.com/2008/08/01/nyt-changes-anthrax-storyas-i-was-reading-it/
The Bottom Penultimate Line:
The guy is dead = therefore guilty. No further questions necessary.
If you do ask one too many questions about the emperors clothes, then they
simply shut down your accounts:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-02-19-reporter-anthrax_N.htm
Get used to it...
7.31.08 Both Exxon and Shell miss profit targets
So much for windfall profits. And if they can't make a buck off the oil price,
what chance do YOU have?
7.29.08 Today's Rant:
I've posted this, or similar variations, at a couple well-read if mundane sites.
How should I change my message for maximum effect?
---
Argue about the quirks of an over-the-hill millionaire
athlete on the internet?
Get Real...
Start Now. There are better outlets for your precious
time and energy. Pick something relevant to the fate of yourself
and family. Start with your street and neighborhood and consider how
your actions today will create your world tomorrow.
We can turn
this ship around.
Yet, as
long as you vote for the demopuplican oligarchy, things will continue
down this downward spiral path. Only once third party and
independent legislators have access to bill riders can any motion gain
traction to remove - at least in portion -the lobbyists from our
pocketbook. "k' street lobbyists govern only for k street. How
many legislators do you imagine had a piece drafting the 700 page
housing bill, much less read it? The worst piece of legislation
since the last one, though not nearly as bad as the FDIC bailout bill
currently being drafted.
The hour is
late...
7.29.08 Mervyn's Files Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
http://www.timesheraldonline.com/news/ci_10043251
Why don't we get this over with and only allow one store - for "everything,
everywhere, all the time".
7.27.08 Dr Edgar Mitchell Confirms that Aliens have visited
Earth recently.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=1fd_1216911065&p=1
Funny, he was the same guy who defends all the anomalies in NASA footage of the
original spacewalk. Guess he wants to free his conscience on the deathbed
while still protecting the pension, just in case!
7.26.08 National Australia Bank writes down US Assets a
full 90%
The bank said the write-off was based on a worst-case scenario of a "meltdown"
of the U.S. mortgage market, but fund managers at a briefing questioned the
quality of the rest of the bank's securitized assets. Reportedly the write
down consists of '"AA-rated CDO tranches".
When our ally bankers tell us our debt is worth 10% on the dollar, you must
expect that they are being rather gracious.
7.26.08 The Housing Bailout Bill
Without doubt, the worst and most devastating bill ever passed by the US
Congress (since the last time they passed a bill).
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080726.wcongress0726/BNStory/Business/home
Sen. DeMint R-S.C., delayed the final vote because Democrats refused to allow
him a vote on a proposal to ban the companies from lobbying or making political
donations to lawmakers. Right, more grandstanding.
Read some commentary by Denninger, Wish I had those 4 minutes of my life back.
Not sure why some folks raise the brou-ha-ha over his tripe. Hope that
excerpt is not representative of the garbage he typically packages/pushes.
What really scratched my album was his disinformation spiel on the financial
tracking mechanism inserted into the bill. To hear mr. d. tell the tale,
this provision is as apple as American pie - a just and pious effort by our
keepers to make sure the tax cheats don't get away with it next year.
Well, how come mr. d didn't lay out the over 100 years+ of doctrine and
supporting court decisions which firmly established that income is not taxable?
Not too hard to raise above the muck when the standard he sets for himself
starts out 1,800 meters below reasonable and informed discourse.
Even should I grant the ridiculous point that that this bill was necessary to
clamp down on the real culprit and criminal responsible for our country's
economic condition (the stay at home mother trying to make a couple grand on
ebay to pay the family's rising food and energy bills) mr. d still did not
address this glaring fact (whether error of omission or commission unknown): How
does mandatory reporting of every citizen credit card transaction to the great
government database support his contention, much less the gist of the
legislation?
Of course, they've been tracking our electronic transactions for years, but now
its legal (nay mandatory).
Oh well, another $880M+ down the drain = just another baby step.
7.26.08 First National Bank of Nevada Fails
Taken over by criminals with even more experience.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080726/bank_takeover.html
Believe it or not this was the first bank where I ever started a checking
account, Downtown Reno Branch. My how far the finances of the Silver State
have fallen. Allowed into the Union for her silver mines, the state now faces
declining tourism, gaming and housing receipts all at the same time - three
bedrock industries of the past 70 years. Thankfully gold mining remains
strong, basically carrying the rural economy at this point. The cities are
importing statist republicans and typical democrats in a stratagem to firmly an
finally swing the electorate into the blue column, thus ensuring complete
dependence upon government handouts for the next generation.
Now, the FDIC has already blown their load to a tune of almost 20% of their
reserves on takeover of IndyMac Bank. So you need to wonder at this point which
dirty lobbyists are already drafting the 900+ page bill to add three or four of
your taxpayer-payer funded zeros at the end of the FDIC balance to bail out the
other hundreds of banks waiting in the wings for a sugar daddy.
The AP spins the bank failures as due to a "poor economy".
Regrettably, the local business writers fell down on the job years ago, now
hardly able to dodge, weave, and maneuver around the puppet string attached firm
to the top of their head. The puppet strings occasionally move in opposite
directions, but the AP feed seems to dominate on Tuesdays, Friday morning, and
weekends.
http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080726/NEWS18/80726009&OAS_sitepage=news.rgj.com%2Fbreakingnews
Of course the locals don't believe the spin-tripe either. We haven't yet
been dumbed-down quite as much as AP and her financiers have targeted.
Simply yet one more example where the mainstream press has prostrated themselves
to the fiat-moneyed interests and can no longer carry out their duties and
responsibilities. I haven't exactly heard many compassionate sighs as
newsrooms across the country have been slashing reporter and editorial posts at
old-timey newspaper. They've reaped their just desserts.
The blogs representing all good citizenry actually paying attention have had to
pick up the increasing slack.
7.25.08 Paper Covers Rock (metal ore)
Today's conundrum: Would you rather have a single ounce of gold or this $1,000
gold certificate?
How do you suppose the wanker banker and the common man answered the questions
differently in the shadows of the 1907 panic?
From Heritage Galleries:
7.25.08 Bought back KGC around $18.50
We'll see how it works this time.
Have played KGC well this year. Wish I could say the same about all my other
trades (having the worst year trading since 04).
---
6.28.08
Sold half my GG @46.70
Shares disappeared within micro second
(sold 50% of position b.c. stock up 50% and now
overweighed in my portfolio [and overweight in XAU quite a bit by now as
well])
>12.26.06 Bought KGC @ 11.37
>Bought MDG @ 27.10
>Bought AEM @ 30.50
>Bought back GG @27.5 (had sold on the 7th @ 29.5)
4.17.08 Another sector arbitrage pair: MRB and KGC
Caught this one real nice:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s=KGC&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=mrb
MRB performed 2x as well as
KGC. Wow, how similar they traded throughout most of the period
and how differently they traded for a two week period to end march,
which made the deal.
Look to make a decision next
week...
"1.24.08 Traded out of KGC and back into MRB today."
7.25.08 Another 'Corporate Action'
SLV splits.
(I don't like splits)
7.25.08 Added another Titanium supplier to the links page
http://www.westerntitanium.com/
I receive numerous spams every week from folks who want me to add a link to
their page. Occasionally there arrives a worthy seeker.
The timing proves most cuprous. Not more than a few minutes after I add the link
to the titanium supplier, does yahoo push a story on 'blood titanium' and how
the evil western child forces poor little Congolese children into the deep evil
mines - causing the Rwandan war. Or something most ridiculous.
http://videogames.yahoo.com/feature/playstation-2-component-incites-african-war/1231745
7.25.08 The Bad Actors usually wait patiently for the
exogenous even (earthquake, flood, etc.) to Act
For example, the plans to usurp control (various elements of martial law or
increased influence/control of the monetary and banking system) are always
written well in advance (using your tax money). The administration-regime then
awaits patiently (jet sets around the world making grand pronouncements, again -
using your tax money).
THEN, when the big one hits (massive flood, earthquake, assassination et. al.)
they spring into action with their Grand Plan to Help!
Of course, this only transfers more power to them at your expense.
One can tell when the regime becomes most desperate - they plan or execute the
exogenous event (Reichstag Fire, 911) rather than wait for the organic event.
7.24.08 Kennedy and executive order 11110.
Read the article yesterday showing how the reason for his demise was that he
made the wrong enemies by threatening to move in on the Federal Reserves'
monopoly.
However, I do wish the author would have provided a little more factual context
on the panic of 1907, just to demonstrate the articles motives.
The bankers didn't cause the crash of '07, but they did pile on in an effort to
deepen and expand the crisis to support their own nefarious and pre-existing
agenda.
The origins of the 1906 panic formed out of organic reasons. The San Francisco
earthquake created a severe liquidity crunch in the fastest growing region of
the US - at the time. The Saint Louis worlds fair marked the beginning of
the end for that city's business dominance of the western front. Typically, as
history shows, once the city's fathers begin building monuments and
bestowing honors amongst their selves and cronies symbolizing grandeur of their
vision, 'tis time to move west my man. The eastern money influence waned with
the burgeoning city of San Francisco. Her edifices rose from the bay
mudflats supported by Nevada Silver (Tonopah) and Gold (Goldfield). Both camps
were actually in decline or nearly so as of late 1906 although the city of SF
continue to grow; propelled via the ubiquitous inertia of hope.
The west still grappled with shortages of hard money - a condition present since
the beginning of the War Between the States. Silver and gold managed to
carry most capital funding but many day-to-day transactions had been relegated
to the arena of 'good for' tokens and scrip. Hard money, already exhibiting
shortages, simply became unavailable (through both hoarding and lack of
transportation necessary for distribution) following the SF earthquake.
Distraught western merchants leaned on eastern bankers who then tapped the
insurance agents, many based in Britain. The British bankers then inserted
their own particular brand of malicious mischief into the mix. They smelled
blood amongst the eastern bankers and leaned in hard. The bankers
eventually colluded toward the federal reserve we know today, supporting plans
already laid in place by nefarious controlling interests.
On a related aside, those fighting the good fight still carry on - in this case
digging the dirt where our intelligence agents buried the corpse.
Here is an excerpt from a New York Times article earlier this week (subscription
content - so no link):
Lawsuit on F.B.I.
Informant Seeks Mobster's Link to 1963 Kennedy Assassination;
[Metropolitan Desk]
Alan Feuer.
New York Times. (Late Edition (East Coast)). New York, N.Y.:
Jul 22, 2008. pg. B.3
Copyright New York Times Company Jul 22, 2008
Abstract (Summary)
In pursuing
the Scarpa file and its potential to flesh out Mr. Marcello's possible
role in the Kennedy killing, Ms. Clemente is following a trail blazed in
part by G. Robert Blakey, a professor of law at the University of Notre
Dame who also served as the chief counsel and staff director to the
House Select Committee on Assassinations, which from 1977 to 1979
investigated the killings of President Kennedy and the Rev. Dr. Martin
Luther King Jr.
A New Jersey paralegal with a longstanding interest in government
corruption filed a lawsuit against the Justice Department and the F.B.I.
on Monday, seeking the release of the full case file on a murderous
Brooklyn Mafia informant -- papers she believes may shed light on the
possible involvement of a dead New Orleans crime boss in the killing of
President John F. Kennedy.
The lawsuit, filed in Federal District Court in Washington by the
paralegal, Angela Clemente, asks the Federal Bureau of Investigation to
make public any documents it may still hold related to the mobster,
Gregory Scarpa Sr., who for nearly 30 years led a stunning double life
as a hit man for the Colombo crime family and, in the words of the
F.B.I, a "top echelon" informant for the bureau.
In her suit, Ms. Clemente asked the bureau to release all papers
connected to Mr. Scarpa (who died of AIDS in 1994 after receiving a
blood transfusion), especially those related to Carlos Marcello, a New
Orleans don suspected by some of having played a role in the Kennedy
assassination on Nov. 22, 1963.
Ms. Clemente filed a Freedom of Information Act request for Mr. Scarpa's
file in April, and the F.B.I. acknowledged her request in a letter on
June 9, saying that bureau officials would search their records for
relevant papers. Ms. Clemente's lawyer, James Lesar, said that the
F.B.I. had not yet told her if it would release the file or not, but
that under federal law, a lawsuit can be filed compelling the release of
records 20 working days after such a letter is received.
John Miller, a spokesman for the F.B.I., did not return phone calls on
Monday seeking comment on Ms. Clemente's suit. Dean Boyd, a Justice
Department spokesman, said officials would review the suit and respond
if needed in court.
In pursuing the Scarpa file and its potential to flesh out Mr.
Marcello's possible role in the Kennedy killing, Ms. Clemente is
following a trail blazed in part by G. Robert Blakey, a professor of law
at the University of Notre Dame who also served as the chief counsel and
staff director to the House Select Committee on Assassinations, which
from 1977 to 1979 investigated the killings of President Kennedy and the
Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
While the Warren Commission said there was no link between Mr. Marcello
and the president's death, Mr. Blakey's report to the House was
considerably more circumspect, saying the F.B.I.'s "handling of the
allegations and information about Marcello was characterized by a less
than vigorous effort to investigate its reliability."
Ms. Clemente is in possession of several heavily redacted papers from
the Scarpa file, which suggest, however vaguely, she said, that Mr.
Scarpa, who spied on numerous gangsters for the F.B.I., may also have
spied on Mr. Marcello.
Professor Blakey, reached by phone at his office at Notre Dame on
Monday, said he had seen the papers, adding that no matter what the
unredacted versions might eventually reveal, he was convinced that he
should have seen them 30 years ago, while conducting his Congressional
investigation.
"The issue here is not what's in them," Professor Blakey said, "so much
as that they seem to have held them back from me. I thought I had the
bureau file on Marcello -- now it turns out I didn't, did I? So I'm not
a small, I'm a major, supporter of what Angela is trying to do."
Ms. Clemente, 43, often refers to herself as a "forensic intelligence
analyst." She has been researching Mr. Scarpa for nearly a decade as
part of a broader project on the improper use of government informants.
The Brooklyn district attorney's office has said her work on Mr. Scarpa
was instrumental in helping the office file quadruple murder charges
against Mr. Scarpa's former F.B.I. handler, Roy Lindley DeVecchio.
The charges against Mr. DeVecchio were dropped midtrial in October when
Tom Robbins, a reporter for The Village Voice, suddenly showed
prosecutors taped interviews he made years ago with the main prosecution
witness, Mr. Scarpa's mistress, suggesting that she had changed her
account and damaged her credibility.
Faced with the sudden demise of years of investigative work, Ms.
Clemente went back, she said, to the redacted papers she already had.
She said she was intrigued, after additional study, to discover
references to Mr. Scarpa's apparent involvement in F.B.I. projects in
New Orleans in the late 1950s and early 1960s -- well before his
publicly acknowledged role in helping the Kennedy administration learn
the whereabouts of three slain civil rights workers by traveling to
Mississippi to threaten a member of the Ku Klux Klan.
She said the F.B.I. had fought her "tooth and nail" in her efforts to
obtain the full Scarpa file for Mr. DeVecchio's trial. The F.B.I. did
not return phone calls seeking comment on that allegation as well.
"And that," she said, "is what really piqued my curiosity."
7.21.08
Australian Carbon Consultant calls it quits
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24036736-7583,00.html
Imagine one day you wake up and realize you had been working for a lie over the
past seven years.
Now imagine all those people who haven't yet woken up.
7.19.08 Etrade Inserted a new Welcome Page
The page states that my trading account is insured/covered up to $500,000.
That makes me a little bit nervous.
7.16.08 Anatomy of a Bank Run
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080716/ap_on_bi_ge/indymac_customers
Folks hoping to play musical chairs, pull the money out of one bank and deposit
into another.
How do they know the next bank won't fail?
Here is the human emotion quotient revealed:
http://www.latimes.com/video/?slug=la-fi-indymac16-2008jul16-ktla
Financial Reserve Fiat Banking is nothing more than a confidence game.
When the confidence is gone...
7.14.08 Now: Time in the cycle to buy the Means of
Production.
if u cant hold money in the banks
and the stock markets have a negative return (and housing, and bonds)
and the govt will steal your gold
and the coins are fake chinese...
looking at ranches now.
AUM is animal units monthly, how grazing contracts are bought and sold in the
western US.
y'all look up AUM , waterrights and carbons contracts. Homework for today.
7.14.08 Metallica Resources (formerly MRB)
now trades as NEW GOLD INC CDA COM NGD: AMEX
Call me a hopeless romantic, but I liked the old name better.
Hey, but it only took firggin eTrade two trading days to figure out my balance
didn't go to zero for that line item.
Guess they got bigger things to worry about - like solvency.
7.14.08 Someone pointed out this type of biofuel reactor as
a potential solution.
Read here:
http://www.sartec.com/mcgyan.html
They remain rather vague about the process.
One initial concern I note is a problem with their suggested source:
feedstock tallow.
A) Note that tallow is a notorious weed/invasive
B) C4 vs. C4 plants
Note that c3 plants will out perform (growth and
mass definitely, yield possibly) than c4 plants with a rising C02
environment). However, c4 plants possess better drought tolerance.
Of course, there are actually THREE ways plants fix CO2.
C) The gentleman in the link haven’t yet figured
out use of food stock as fuel for a bioreactor doesn’t solve the
problem. We need to use WASTE stock.
Not sure about your hemisphere, but we have an
incredibly amount of waste here. As previously described, a city
where I previously resided has a biowaste reactor. Eventually
there will sprout ubiquitously over the landscape.
Hence, restaurant tallow (wastestock) is a better
use
This guy does a good job laying out some pros and
cons of biosources:
http://nanothreads.blogspot.com/2007/11/what-should-biofuel-agriculture-look.html
It has been less than two years when most people
flat out didn’t believe me when I explained you could run an engine on
vegetable oil power.
Now look how far we’ve come on board.
For that matter, many folks are now nodding their
head rather than staring blankly when I explain that Hemp proves a
better biofuel source than almost all alternatives when analyzed across
a full spectrum of metrics.
However, the fact that big pharma/chemical has kept it illegal for 70
years illustrates fully that our problems are political – not technical.
Once we solve the problem of a corrupt politician…
7.13.08 Guess we got the government answer on he banking
failures:
MORE GOVERNMENT SOLUTIONS!
well, that didn't take long.
har...
7.13.08 Someone else noticed all the fake coins and grading
slabs produced from China.
Well, you could keep your money in the bank...
7.10.08 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (FNM, FRE)
In Freefall. FRE lost another HALF in their stock value IN ONE WEEK.
Now bankrupt and insolvent. Just wondering what to wear to their funeral.
Former Saint Louis Chairman Federal Reserve Poole declared yesterday that,
essentially, the US Govt will be forced to nationalize these two enterprises.
Forced nationalization of the bad debt while the bankers skim the cream. Lehman
Brothers and Merrill Lynch now in the crosshairs.
Your credit is used up. Your US government already pledged you for over $300k
per family in debt. The Chinese and Japanese will no longer loan us money (As
shown in the Treasury action that I've brought to your attention over the last
half-decade).
What shall we do, sell another Chrysler building to Abu Dubai?
Our banks need another $200Billion this month to stay afloat. What bid do I hear
for Yosemite National Park?
Can't believe it's been almost five years since I started this bond thread. In
the first post I posted how the action in these two stocks (FNM, FRE) portended
major upheaval in the bond market. At the time just didn't realize how severe
the action would prove, especially on the international scale.
Have you woken yet? Prepared? You don't have another five years to think about
it.
The hour is getting late...
7.9.08 Rest in Peace John Templeton
One of our greatest ex-pat investors - funny ideas and all.
7.9.08 Someone asked about Stock Indices
Wit: "Is there a way I could look up a list of all of the stock prices within
an exchange online ? Like what they show in the papers ?
My Answer:
I've never seen someone offer this product for free before; I have seen it
offered via subscription or payment. That was a few years ago when folks were
rather hot on the stock markets.
You can build your own listing on yahoo simply by entering the ticker symbols.
For example, the DOW has only 30 stock; the FTSE 100 and Nasdaq 100 are also
relatively easy. The stocks which make up these indices are widely available.
I built my own mining stock index a few years ago, with a couple hundred
listings. Amazing how often the symbols change and/or the company folds.
Not sure what your purposes are, but you may consider the difference between
price-weighted and capitalization weighted indices if you are doing wide
performance comparisons.
You will either have to manually enter the ticker symbol for each stock on the
index into a spreadsheet/database yourself of pay someone a fee for license to
the product they've already developed. I've never seen it offered for free.
More importantly, what is the lesson you hope to learn from the exercise?
Do you have time to track 3,000 stocks? Very few people do, especially to any
degree of usefulness; which is why they developed indices.
On a capitalization-weighted exchange of 3,000 listings, the bottom half
-roughly - only effects the index price a fraction of what the top 100 influence
the index. Most traders focused on money flow into/out of the sector leaders,
which is why the technical indicators focus on money flow rather than the
accumulation/distribution line for any individual stock. A/D is tracked for the
broad index whereas WHO is buying (insiders, funds, specs, little guy) is
tracked for individual listings.
So, what is the point of following the price change on the bottom third of the
index/exchange?
7.4.08 The Freedom Index: Annual Status
Again, down from last year, but not much. Will depend largely upon the
vote net week on the FISA bill.
7.3.08 What do they know?
http://stevequayle.com/News.alert/08_Photo_of_Day/080702.photo.of.day.html
7.3.08 Yukon Nevada plans increase in gold production at
Jerritt Canyon
Will this
be the time they make their mark?
http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2008/07/01/news/mining_news/mining50.txt
7.3.08
How long do you deserve to live?
Well – of
course - that all depends on who gets to decide how many carbon credits
you deserve. And guess who is going to decide that?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080701.wcomment0701/BNStory/specialComment/home
“Let your
tears dry before your heart does”
7.2.08
Worried that you don’t have a horse in the game regarding forced
privatization
Of Lehman
Brothers Commercial Bank?
Don’t fret:
Little people will have a shot at playing in the bank run game at
neighborhood banks all over the country. Perhaps one in your
neighborhood! This banking crisis is afterall, and equal
opportunity financial panic, not just for the big boyz.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/06/indymac-schumer-caused-minor-bank-run.html
Meanwhile,
in the midst of a continuing yet worsening plunge in the banking index,
Fannie Mae (FNM) is coming up on critical technical support (double
bottom). Should be good for a bounce – even if ephemeral.
Citigroup ©
just broke critical support and must now work out of a nasty head and
shoulders formation failure.
7.1.08 A Book Review: Ben Franklin's Guide to Wealth.
This compact book produced by Conari press in 2004 originally sold at Border's
Book's for $10.50. CoinMine presents the books here for $1.95. Ben
Franklin would approve of the discount.
Of course Franklin, projecting his philosophical bequests upon those following
the gifts thrift whilst working all his life against the scourge of penury,
gained the economic nickname Poor Richard.
This book, written by Erin Barett and Jack Mingo, present and expound upon
Benjamin Franklin's financial and economic treatises and witticisms. They
begin with 10 major platforms originally presented in Poor Richards Almanack,
produced by Franlklin and one of his earliest commercial success, and build upon
Franklins economic bon mots - presenting lessons for the modern age. The lesson
is timeless although the application and mechanics may change somewhat with the
decades.
Erin and Jack originally start out with Franklins wise admonishments against
wasting time. Laziness and sloth eat away at your treasures as moths to cloth.
Take a look around you and realize how few of your fellow countrymen simply do
not follow this wise and simple advice. They follow up with lessons
on how to mind your daily an financial business utilizing those time-tested
methods that have built wealth over the centuries.
Attention to detail and thrift provide the next tow topics for consideration and
illumination. These two qualities kept my head above water when I had been
failing in all the other topics. This shows the sheer gravitas behind the idea
of living within your means and really knowing what - exactly - those means are
in every individual case.
Barett and Jack Mingo hone in on the joys and beauty of Living Simply and
Breaking the Chains of Debt in the next two chapters. This strategy may enable
the authors to realize that Franklins wisdom has now become their own. Their
study of the master, through osmosis at a minimum, provided them the foresight
to predict that the economic period we are currently entering will reward - nay
demand! - these qualities. Wiping out the debt and excess from a society keep
the people free as throw off the yokes which bind them toward despots.
regrettably, financial and personal paid - individual and collective- form the
price we all will pay to some degree for this lesson on how to return to those
roots which grew this country fair and strong since the seed- sowing days of the
late 1700s.
The book won't make you rich quick or provide the bedrock of economic education
that few of us seem to learn until the date of our retirement draws nigh.
Nevertheless, the concepts never lose weight and Franklin showed such a powerful
wordsmith, packing lessons into mere sentences, that any authors following down
his path cannot help but suffer the fate of seeming superfluous and fluffly.
Still, the majority of
"Get what you can, and what you get hold; 'tis the stone that will turn all your
lead into gold." - Benjamin Franklin.
Here Poor Richard refers to the Philosophers stone - that elusive piece of earth
sought by alchemists for its reported attribute which allowed it to turn lead
into gold. Franklin wisely counsels here that the truest gold you already
hold in your hands, and heart, and head. Keep your attributes humble and
pure and wealth will follow. Sage advice.
6.29.08 More MortMain
The market has not been able to digest the forced
liquidation of Bear Stearns and therefore coughed up a rather large fur
ball.
The bonds and equities demonstrate that Bernanke
and fellow criminals badly executed their special blend of usury, equity
stripping, malfeasance and larceny.
Larger markets realize the outright theft of
shareholder value by the Federal Reserve, given to their cronies under
cover of a Sunday Night, underwritten by the US taxpayer and investors.
In turn the banking and finance sectors have gained
momentum in their great downward spiral decent.
Indeed, as predicted here, BAC has ramrodded the
poison-pill-laden legislation through the USHouse. This legislation will
saddle the US taxpayers (those too dumb/poor to obtain the loopholes)
with the debt while BAC strips the equities. = Free houses for the
bankers while the poor working folks carry either $100k more than they
own on their home, or lug around a bankruptcy for the next 7-10 years.
Just one of the poison pills is the provision inserted by Criminal
Senior Dodd which provides the US Government the ‘power’ to track and
store in a database every electronic transaction conducted by the US
citizenry (electronic payments, debits, ebay and paypal, electronic
banking, etc.).
BAC was able to utilize the best politicians that
money can buy (given the selction and sorry state of the money) to
hand-carry the legislation off the banker’s shelf through the Peoples
House. However, President Bush amazingly enough found what remains of
his spine and threatened to veto the mess.
As such, you can see BAC has lost OVER a full third
of its value since I pointed out the fundamental weakness and technical
breakdown in the stock on Feb 29, 2008.
Here’s the performance.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BAC#symbol=BAC;range=6m
One thing yields clear to even the most casual
observer – more banking failures are on the way.
The smart money has begun withdrawing their funds
out of US banks.
6.29.08 Circulating Coin
Census: US 1930’s
Interesting read on the relative rarity, wear
patterns and 19th century collector interest in circulating
coins.
http://www.ngccoin.com/news/viewarticle.aspx?NewsletterNewsArticleID=479
6.28.08
Never focus on just the dark matter
You won't be able to
find most of it anyway. More importantly, you'll miss the lighter
moments.
Sure the 2nd amendment ruling left a
bitter taste due to the imbedded poison pill (lots of those around)
inserted into this Trojan horse by Scalia.
But it bought us a couple years...
Bet you never saw this bombshell. IRS Complex
lost a big one to the honest money brigade:
The IRS versus the People (Represented in this case
by Kahre)
http://newswithviews.com/brownfield/brownfield67.htm
I start out some of my talks the same way as this
guy.
Paper in one hand and silver in the other!
A great take on the story:
http://www.liberty-watch.com/volume03/issue08/coverstory.php
Karhe has less than 20k google hits. The mainstream
press is doing everything to bury this story. Man beats IRS - nah,
nobody cares about that, hou COULD it be news. Right...
6.28.08 Sold half my GG @46.70
Shares disappeared within micro second
(sold 50% of position b.c. stock up 50% and now
overweighed in my portfolio [and overweight in XAU quite a bit by now as
well])
>12.26.06 Bought KGC @ 11.37
>Bought MDG @ 27.10
>Bought AEM @ 30.50
>Bought back GG @27.5 (had sold on the 7th @ 29.5)
There goes our ‘leader’ of the week: GSS
Har!
Etrade shows there has been NO insider buying this
year.
The non-news is out. Put my low ball bids in,
getting close to coming through…
6.28.08 Collapse of Middle
Class
Someone brought my attention to a story regarding
some clown moaning because they can’t afford a car payment! Darn
straight, if they don’t have cash in an account as arbitrage against the
payment then – by definition – they CAN’T afford it.
Wipe out the bad credit: That’s exactly what’s
needed right now!
You don’t measure the strength of an organization
by the weak hands, indeed you measure the weakness of the organization
by the weakest length of the chain. Once identified, the chain is
replaced by a stronger one.
6.27.08 Furthermore...
You and a friend could buy and sell the same coin x number of times back and
forth, not ship (though it looks like it) not pay insurance, and save the
shipping/transaction costs. Of course, that is EXACTLY why the new
mortgage bailout bill has provisions to report every electronic financial
transaction to the govt.
6.27.08 How to get an ounce of gold for *almost* free
(well, you can buy at 1999 levels anyway - one third of today's value)
Before reading further: You must already have, or sign up for: EBAY, MSFT and
Paypal.
Here is the deal: MSFT will rebate you btw 15-20% (has been as high as 30% and
low as 10%). Today was at 17% and %20.
If you have bought/sold frequently enough on Ebay of late you may already have a
10% off coupon that expires on the 30th.
You can use the MSFT deal 3x per account. So, if you buy an OZ of physical AU at
$1,030 (about the going rate for BIN auctions) you will get an Ebay discount of
$100 and MSFT rebate of $200 (after 60 days). Do it three times (max #times per
MSFT per account) and you save 200, 200, 200 and 100 dollars = $700. So, you can
buy an ounce of gold for only one third its value. Not too shabby.
Not sure, but you may be able to exceed 3x in paypal (we have 2 ebay accts).
Here are the particulars:
If you use Microsoft's live search you can get as much as a 20% rebate on an
eBay item (up to $250). Here's how to take advantage of the offer. First you go
to the live search website live.com. In the upper right corner you will see a
link that says cashback. Click on that link. Then click on the Your cashback
Account link. Then on the left side of the page you will see a choice to either
open a cashback account using your existing Windows Live ID or you can sign up
for a Windows Live ID then sign up for your cashback account.
We already had a Windows Live ID and went through the process using that ID, it
was pretty simple. Note, if you have a hotmail account, a windows messenger ID,
or a Windows passport they are all considered a Windows Live ID. Also if you use
Windows Live OneCare for virus protection you set up a Windows Live ID to
activate the software. Microsoft will send you an email once you have set up
your cashback account. Follow the instructions in the email and you are good to
go.
Then all you have to do is conduct a search using live.com. When you conduct the
search look for something generic such as silver coins, silver bullion, silver
quarters, etc. You will see a gray box with sponsor links in the top middle of
the page. You should see a link to ebay in this box and it will say something
like "Buy silver coins. You may get 20% off with Paypal if eligible". Click on
that link and it will take you to eBay. Note, I have noticed that the %off
amount changes frequently. I have seen it at 10%,15%, and 20%. I discovered that
if you refresh your browser a few times you will see different numbers (higher
or lower). I would recommend refreshing your browser a few times until you see
20%.
You will see an icon at the top of the page that says "Microsoft cashback 20%.
Buy it now with Paypal and you may get cashback." Once you see this you have 60
minutes to complete a transaction.
The rebate only applies to purchases made using a buy it now and paid for using
paypal. When you find something you want to buy, click buy it now and you will
see a message that tells you how much you will get back from Microsoft. Then pay
for the item using Paypal. If you still haven't used your 10% off coupon from
eBay you will be able to use it at this point. 20% cash rebate from Microsoft +
10% off from eBay= a total of 30% off.
Once you have paid for the item you will get a message from eBay that says: It
pays to shop eBay! You've earned US $xxx.xx cashback. It then provides
additional instructions on what to do to get your money. Microsoft will wait 60
days before they give you your money. If you return the item you will not
receive your rebate.
Here is one place where the deal is described and tracked:
http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/topic_view.php?catid=18&threadid=838081&start=0
6.26.08
Paper: Ephemera Strength
"One of the first commercial multipage United
States telephone directories, Vol. 1, No. 1 for New Haven, Conn., was
printed in 1878, just two years after the phone was invented. It listed
391 subscribers. Estimated at $30,000 to $40,000, it sold last week at
Christie's for $170,500. The phone book included instructions on how to
use the phone: "Never take the telephone off the hook unless you wish to
use it. Commence the conversation by saying 'Hulloa.' When you are done
talking, say 'That is all!'"
Source: Kovels
6.22.08 Three Ghost Riders of Retirement:
Market Risk, Inflation, Longevity
6.20.08 One the Pissing Contest between ECB and FED
Regarding "monetary policy"
Hey - I got a solution: War. You guys hosted last seven or eight times, looks
like its our turn.
Or, better yet: ONE WORLD GOVERNMENT w/ ONE WORLD BANK WITH ONE WORLD MONETARY
POLICY.
That way, you can monitor our carbon consumption real-time and we'll all know
exactly how to behave.
6.19.08 More than one way to peel an onion
Someone opined:
“In my view, there are about 1.8 tons of compressed
sand/gravel in 1 cubic yard of material.”
To which I reply:
That could be very well – completely depends upon local soil conditions (down to
the pedon).
I’ve measure ratios (in field) under one and up to 1.8something)
If the observation if in the field, you could make a case for the bank volume
methodology.
If the observation is out of the field, you might consider the bulk density
method.
Better yet,
- Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR)
- ASTM D-1556 (Sand Cone)
- Drive Tube
- ASTM D 2922 (Direct Transmission NuKE-U-Lar)
etc
Someone further opined:
“The results were accurate but pretty meaningless.”
To which I further mewled: HOWZABOUT: “Due to reporting and/or methodology
anomalies, results were precise but not accurate; hence sampling will be
repeated within a larger sampling programme including multiple split and
duplicate samples to ensure reporting accuracy and assurance” .
Random thoughts for a better world...
6.19.08 Read some folks discussing how a mining firm PR
department reports mining results
If what is presented here is correct regarding what the PR department is telling
current/future investors, then there are serious QA/QC issues with the firm.
so NO, it is NOT ok to assume a 'ton' is 2,000 lbs. Terminology, lexicon and
vernacular count outside handgrenades and atom bombs. The difference btw 'short
ton', 'ton' and 'tonne' can be over 10%.
Not sure about you, but at the end of the quarter/year 10% makes a difference on
my return.
Would you rather own a company that pays a 5% divvy every year, or loses 5%
every year. That's 10%. Plenty of folks on this fair globe scratching out for
2-5%.
The PR department should just report the assay amounts.
There are methods and standards which govern laboratory reporting (and very few
- if any that govern PR).
If the PR want to talk in tonnage - without - mentioning the important topics of
waste tonnage and cut-off grades, etc. then they are leading down any number of
uneven and unproven paths, mostly circular.
Furthermore, why not report lab results that have been validated? Adds a second
layer of independent analysis.
6.18.08 Trouble in Water Works
Washoe County water district taxpayers defrauded by millions. Amazing anybody
notices, really, considering the county management essentially admits they have
now idea what they own (much less how to manage the resource - but that goes
unsaid).
http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080617/NEWS18/80617078&OAS_sitepage=news.rgj.com%2Fbreakingnews
Few people take a look to see what is really going on in this sector, so allow
me to provide some simple guideposts:
The water and wastewater industries have been, in some fashion, deregulated in
the 1980's and 1990s'. Federal and State government regulations favored
establishing 'special districts' of which water and sewer are just two types of
these special districts.
6.17.08 Some of the smart money is now exiting the oil and
gas sectors.
But what about Brigham Exploration? (BEXP). Doesn't look like a triple top or
exhaustion gap to me...
6.17.08 Photobucket Hacked
The world largest file holder w/ over 5 billion images still losing out to a
german outfit.
6.15.08 John Ensign, R-Nv can't change allegiances at this
point in the game.
Stay's with the oil and gas industry that brought him to the prom.
http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080614/NEWS18/80614023&s=d&page=2#pluckcomments
What's a trader to do?
Well, if the credits won't be extended - maybe time to take some of the profits
we've made in US Geothermal and NV Geothermal???
6.13.08
Lithium
Somebody
asked about lithium. Her was my take in January 05:
---
Alternative Energy: Lithium
Somebody doesn’t want this lithium-based energy
developer gaining traction:
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=LVRJNV.story&STORY=/www/story/01-21-2005/0002869632&EDATE=Jan+21,+2005
Nevada has very productive lithium mines.
Remember, the di-lithium crystals powered the
starship enterprise…
Alternative Energy: The difficulty is not the technology
Rather, the application.
In 1973 the United States Postal Service began
converting its fleet of service vehicles (at the time, the largest
non-military fleet in the world) to compressed natural gas.
However, neither Ford nor its vendors nor any other group could develop
a suitable converter package with suitable maintenance and operation
requirements. The Postal service completely abandoned CNG technology for
the entire fleet by the end of the millennium. Currently, the
entire fleet runs on standard fuels; the focus fro the future lies on
two technologies: biodiesel and electric (hybrid) vehicles.
-----
When I looked a little into Whistler at the time,
I found this little gem:
http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G1-132389255.html
Naked shorting, unauthorized listing on a minor
exchange, and resultant Company pulling out of the exchanges.
AFAIK, they went private.
a firm driven off their course by the naked
shorter and market shenanigans.
And a
Lithium/energy in a post a few weeks later: April 05:
4.4.05 Oil and Energy Plays
That
are currently (or very recently, or will be) in my holdings:
Vectren: VVC
Nicor:
GAS
Kerr
McGee KMG
Enerplus resources ERF
Shaw
Group: SGR
Chevron: CVX
Idacorp
Holding IDA
Ormat
Industries: ORA
However, a couple of these are looking overextended imo and I have
lightened up. Something that has shaped my outlook is that here in
the western US power production is only half the problem. Power
transmission is the other half, thus energy services companies are worth
considering. Something else to keep in mind is the large number of
firms that now have an energy division. For example, NEM, ABX, and CAG
(Conagra foods) all have power interests in nevada.
SGR
They
took on a huge amount of debt when they swallowed ICF and their share
price took a stutter. I bought in then b.c. I thought it was a good fit
and liked the long term outlook for their model. Perhaps now , however,
they’re fully valued.
ORA is
an interesting one. I don't own it since the IPO just came out late last
year. However, I have been following the company for a couple years now
and am familiar with some of their property. I see them making
some very shrewd decisions. Any time the Israelis start to aggressively
build a market share in the state I get interested. ORA and CAG actually
have experimental research plants next door to each other. Most
ironic, many of the geothermal taps were actually developed in the 1970s
when wildcats placed wells throughout the hinterlands looking for oil
and gas and instead hit hot water.
IDA Run of the mill
utility and resource holding company
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/2003q3/2003_08/1030829.012026.mercuryee.htm
CAG
Am rotating out of MON into CAG. Mon has done just
fine by me, and am looking for a sector rotation to spice things up a
bit.
Date: Tue Jun 25 2002 00:05
}Only stock I like now, is monsanto ( mon ) at 18.35. absolutely nobody
else likes it here...
THE WATCH LIST
Canadian trusts
consider taking a look at Canadian energy holding trusts and interest
pass-throughs. The Canadian government has within the last year
rescinded some of the previous obstacles to foreigners from investing
funds in these trusts and IPTs. For instance, the funds once
required no more than 50% foreign capital -which mandated constant
rebalancing and inefficiency. Things look much more orderly now for
foreign investors.
http://www.primewestenergy.com/unitholder.aspx
http://www.globeinvestor.com/series/top1000/tables/units/2004/
COS-UN.TO
(Fun
with Canadian Resources law) Lawhttp://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/2004q2/2004_06/1040601.204507.mercuryee.htm
OTHER
TECHNOLOGIES
Lithium
Too bad chemtalle foote doesn’t trade. I am
looking for a decent lithium play.
http://www.chemetalllithium.com/lithium/lithium.nsf/vwFiles/Homepage/$FILE/home.html
Bio-Diesel
also see CAG
...also on the watch list:
SU, crystalline quartz piezoelectricity
Thankfully,
I stayed (mostly in the stocks below in the accounts I discuss w/
friends and family). They’ve been happy…
STOCK THEN
NOW
VVC
23.5
30
GAS
34.5
43
KMG
went higher than was bought out by Andarko (APC);
APC
38
77
SGR
20
63
CVX
56
94
IDA
28
32
ORA
15
53
CAG
26
23 (cant win ‘em all)
MON
30
137
Not too
shabby. As it turns out, you could have gotten these stocks
cheaper two weeks after my post in April 05, but then they all (except
CAG) went up from there.
Not so
lucky: I never did buy SU at 13 (now almost 70)
crystal
power!
Lithium
summary
Basically,
I gave up on Lithium once I realized the big boys had already sewed up
the market. Some of these metal/energy markets are so thin as to be
essentially closed systems. When the presserazzi speak (on behalf
of the PTB) about the lousy ‘speculators’ ruining the current world b.c.
they’re running up the POO, what they really mean is lets drum out the
regular people from the market and save all the profits for ourselves.
At some
point in late 04, do believe, I posted on my trip to Silver Peak and on
the lithium mining by ChemtalleFoote. Regrettably, can no longer
find that post nor the notes. And the more I think about it,
around that time I also posted some info from USGS or NBM regarding the
rarity of lithium and the difficulty in mining such. Cant
understand why I am no longer able to find the information. The lithium
cartel is obviously more advanced than OPEC and removed my posties.
Fwiw.
6.6.08 Interesting Action in Oil Today
Looks like Israel locked in the date for the attack on Iran once they briefed
Obama on his genuflection tour in front of the AIPAC last week.
6.5.08 Just Browsed the Metallica Resources (MRB) Circular
Things I like:
Cut-off number for reserves at the Peak Mines: $525 cost per ounce gold.
Cut-off number for reserves at the Amapari Mine: $600 cost per ounce gold.
Cut-off number for reserves at the New Afton Mine:$450 cost per ounce gold.
Granted, those costs will suffer the standard 12% rate of inflation as with
everything else, but looks good from this monitor.
Also, MRB - like Yamana - (and unlike IAG) seem to have done well incorporating
the mergers and acquisitions of Peak Gold and other firms under their umbrella.
A dicey proposition, always, but one that can pay-off and apparently is doing so
right now. After all, they're currently carrying 13 independent subsidiaries.
- Expected mine life of Cerro San Pedro.
Things I am unsure about:
The number of share options held by senior management. Need to research
the average percent of float held by the senior management team for a mining
company in exploration stage (2007) versus one in production stage (2006).
The Annual Report isn't quite as 'grabbing' as some of her competitors. The
'Sustainability Profile' reads particularly stilting and sophomoric. Then again,
for a freshman effort, not too far off the pace.
Things I don't like:
At Cerro San Pedro the The Waste to Ore ratio is too high; so is the silver to
gold ratio (though I am happy remaining overweight silver for the foreseeable
future);
They dropped their Risk Free interest rate assumptions from the 2006 estimates.
This financial forecasting error can ripple through a number of other
expectations;
Career Politicians.
5.31.08 Just Read the Crystallex (KRY) 2007 Annual Report
What a disaster, especially compared to Yamana (AUY).
It's all to easy to read the The Management Discussion and Analysis - especially
the three page section discussing risk factors (those three pages which focus on
the Venezuela-specific risks), and pan the company for not realizing that the
entire portion of this company's finances and fortunes, both current and future,
rests on this fulcrum. Other information pertinent to the operation now,
largely, proves irrelevant. The three pages, out of 66 total in the report, now
undermine every other statement and postulate.
Interestingly enough, although the mining operations at La Victoria purportedly
suffered because the lag time it took to receive a drill compressor replacement
from the US, KRY has kept most the majority of other equipment in Europe, Africa
and the States. Perhaps this tidbit should have tipped the reader that
management didn't put forth enough trust in the locals to even rent a storage
shed adjacent to the property which supposedly would provide the company's
future.
Note to Management: Don't entirely rely on the agreements with the
government for the source of your livelihood even if the agreement has a fancy
title like: Mining Operation Contract. Smells like Adhesion Contract.
But who can the management appeal to, the shareholders (all 551 one of them)?
5.28.08 Lucky Ju Ju/Neptune Beach Pinball Museum Grand
Opening in Next Friday.
Looking forward to it! I donated a machine myself, the 1976 Chicago Coin Pinball
-Old Chicago. Back glass was a 10 and the Playfield a solid 9.
http://www.ujuju.com/item.php?id=636
With this gallery opening, combined with the Pinball Hal of Fame in Vegas, the
WEST coast can now lay claim to pinball capital of the world - stolen fair and
square from Chicago, Il.
5.27.08 Listened to Ben Stein today
He blamed the increase in price of oil, mostly, on the 'speculators'. Now
for purposes of review, speculators are the little people like you and me who
happened to get lucky by placing a bet rightly that the government and their
paid economists are destroying the country in every manner possible. This
includes of course, artificially driving up the price (through inane policy and
regulations and other gross mismanagement) of the things you need to
conduct your life - such as food and energy. In turn, the government
shills such as Ben Stein, are actually calling market action by the commodity
traders as 'near treasonous' (his actual words). Typically one hears this
type of language when a guy begins to realize the price he was paid for his soul
isn't keeping up with the rate of inflation, and is angling for a
re-negotiation.
5.27.08 Well, it taken a while..
but we've begun to put some new inventory on our website.
5.24.08 Just Read the Yamana Gold (AUY) 2007 Annual Report
Looks pretty good. Mostly impressed how well spread out - geographically - the
asset base is spread out through a number of mining-friendly countries.
Furthermore the core production is increasingly spread across a larger base
rather than from just a couple key mines. Diversifying production hedges against
production interruption risk.
The mining story over the last two years, above and beyond the rising cost of
the asset (which has been offset by increasing costs of production) turns out to
be increasing production shutdown due to sheer lack of qualified equipment and
operators (worldwide), electricity (S. Africa) or unfortunate turn of political
fortunes (S. America - and increasingly, N. America [USA]).
Random Notes
Alumbrera - 399 million pounds of copper at current cash production costs of
$1.42/lb.
Page 27 - Too bad neither the photographer nor the employee had the foresight to
remove the soap container (or whatever it is) laying atop the open-spoon ore
samples - does not comport with sampling handling quality control.
Acquisitions. Amazing, really, the company was able to pull off
acquisition of so many companies and properties in such a short period of time
without major wrinkles throughout the organization. Must be seen as a credit to
the management.
5.18.07 Sell Your Oil Now
The future is moving AWAY from your product and TOWARD these commodities: water,
DNA, precious metals and fissionable material.
The five major reasons the US made the serious (nation altering) decision to
erect permanent bases in the middle east:
1. Drive up the price of oil in the short term so that the Arabia/US axis can
realize the most gains in the short term before Arabia is out of oil and the
world moves away from sweet crude as the primary power generation source.
2. When Arabia is out of oil (and thus out of order), we need regional
military bases to support the junta against popular uprisings of a justly
outraged native population and increasingly strident outside forces.
3. Use permanent bases in the region to prevent approximately 25 countries
within 3,500 miles of Baghdad from erecting nuclear facilities. These nuclear
facilities can A) produce weapons (checkmate against future military invasion);
B) Produce power and replace dwindling oil supply; and C) Split water molecules
to provide hydrogen for additional secondary power AND drive saline
hydrolysis of water/hydration synthesis/membrane
reverse-osmosis/electrodialysis/carbon injection-sump storage
5. Prepare and perfect the system (invasion and establishment of permanent
bioregional firebases and internment camps) for export into central Southern
America.
The last 100 years of war were fought over oil, the next 100 over water,
everything after that will be disputes governing control of DNA. The world's DNA
database currently resides in the Amazon jungle. Whoever is able to exert
complete control in the region becomes the next great superpower. Hence,
things have started to get interesting - and will continue to do so in ever
increasing degrees - throughout Paraguay, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela and Brazil.
(Yep, those countries control the world's freshwater basket too!)
You read it here first (and only)...
5.15.08 REAL ID ACT
Thankfully, a few states are attempting to delay the leviathans forceful entry
into our personal identity and rights to assemble and travel.
Of course, the next democratic administration will nanny us to death:
http://blogs.rgj.com/poweron/2008/05/national-id-deadline-passes-w-whimper.html
5.14.08 More on Northern California Real Estate: A
Discussion
Someone posted this:
California Foreclosure Stats
Mortgage resets will peak June '08, dropping to 1/8 volume
Dec '08, climbing back up to 1/3 peak volume Dec '10, dwindling to near zero Dec
'11
200k Default notices expected in '08. Currently 70% NOD going to trustee
auction. Currently 10 months inventory on market
Projected that 50% of all sales in '08 will be trustee/reo auction sales.
Source: Bruce Norris speaking at a meeting Tuesday
night. You won't see that quoted data in the free section. Bruce is on top of
the market and has accurately made timely contrarian predictions in the face of
top economists and industry leaders. He recommended staying away from Vallejo
until the dust settles but did reco some areas in the northern and central
valley. (don't recall specifics)
The subprime washout won't be the final stage. The foreclosure and REO sales are
going to push comps down hard enough to make many non default borrowers walk
away from their $400k/$500k loan when they see the identical house across the
street just sold to J6P for $120k.
http://www.thenorrisgroup.com/
I have independently read/seen/hears much of these numbers.
This month, for the first time in five years, I've seen out-of-towners doing
recon on REO homes in the local neighborhoods (NE SF BAY). Talked to a couple
yesterday. Could be a headfake, but the market might turnaround much earlier
than the 'experts' are expecting.
Now, I don't proclaim to know much about RE as the experts pretend to, I simply
am beginning to put some of my $ there, after being out of the RE market for
many years. Easiest way to learn something is to place some skin in the game.
Lessons follow immediately.
Perhaps I am just kinda bummed I might not be able to straight trade a bag of
silver for a 6/5 Victorian mansion with a water view like I had
dreamt/nightmared could happen in a couple years...
Some point to the Vallejo bankruptcy story as a driver. the early birds have
been buying last couple months, so others have seen value already. maybe the
headlines are getting the lookie-lous onto the streets.
At any rate, the civil service unions in Vallejo today offered to cover 2/3rds
of the deficit by taking pay hikes and not taking raises.
They know they have the most to lose should a judge look over the multiple sets
of books cooked to varying degrees. city will just institute a city tax anyway,
cant see many judges stopping that one.
I can see any type of receivership just giving up on trying to figure it all
out, though. Can you imagine KPMG casting stones on the city accountant
practices? mish didn't add much commentary of value, there WAS however, someone
who posted in the comments section that DID have an insider view. tasty stuff;
spilled some details how to use various contractual mechanisms to loot the
public coffers on a local level.
Vallejo IS an interesting example. land (and water and building) rich and cash
poor. extremely tough putting valuations on these properties. some of the most
beautiful warehouses, commercial buildings and shops in the state, on the
waterfront.
Problem is 1B+ USD in environmental contamination/unexploded ordnance. that
coupled with one of the most historically corrupt city/state politics for 160
years (Vallejo was both the second and fourth state capital).
I would like to see how the bankruptcy thing plays out first hand. today the
school district starts bitching b.c. their vendors stopped sending books, etc
afraid the district would bounce a check. doesn't' matter, in the eyes of the
vendors, that the school district is a seperate entity, and financially secure.
You see, the school district was taken over as a ward of the state a few years
ago. Now the money flows on a few more sets of books. The state LOVES that
action; one reason they pulled eminent domain and stole Vallejo's ferry service
(one of the finest, if not THE finest) in the US) couple months ago. Asset
sparging at its best playing out around here. fascinating.
Local folks starting too perk up too, you dont see that everywhere nowadaze...
Now, Folks suggest staying away from Vallejo and suggest looking at Benicia as a
nearby substitute; here is a good example of the position:
As a long-time real estate investor and student of that
market, I remember during the last serious and very prolonged downturn that, in
the disastrous Texas and Arizona real estate markets, there were two waves of
bottom-fishers (scalpers / speculators) which were also foreclosed upon, before
the third wave succeeded, mostly because of the timing, in hanging on long
enough to make good money.
I think there is no rush to invest fresh money now, especially if you would have
a negative cash flow. I would also recommend having significant added resources
to support the project in case you have difficulty in collecting rent every
month.
There are good reasons that more and more rentals will come onstream, with also
many more renters than in the recent past. But there are no solid reasons why
rents will increase or why the purchase price of residential units will rise. In
difficult times both will trend downward. I do think that very careful and
in-depth study of specific regional markets will be necessary. Anything else
will be "learning by your own school of hard knocks," which is akin to having
the test before attending the lecture. It could be financially very painful.
It's tough enough even if you do all the due diligence you can imagine.
I stayed in Vallejo night before last, and picked up a load of empty wine
bottles in American Canyon. I drove thoughout the area. Benicia is the only
nearby area in which I'd be interested, and I doubt that home prices there have
fallen enough yet, to make this the time to buy. I see reasons that jobs could
be lost, and I don't know of any reasons that jobs are likely to be added.
Without further information, I would bide my time. There is not yet blood
running in the streets.
Well, Benicia is fine; just a few minutes away. But the weather isn't as nice
(more constant wind through the Carquinez strait). where's the upside? Downtown
has already been renovated with full occupancy. We have acquaintances who own a
store downtown - where is the room for growth? (and residential cashflow -
doubtful!). Looks set for a fall from this vantage. Vallejo has room to
re-habilitate, especially commercial (residential will just now begin to barely
cashflow again; after a steep 40% decline in 15 months) but it will take
generations; if ever.
The entire East (jobs and crime) and North Bays (solve the traffic and water
issues in Marin/Sonoma/Lake Cos.?) are in decline IMO. San Francisco proper even
more so.
A vulture capitalist could simply flight on in and buy out others' mistakes.
My take and persuasion guides sight on value where others see only problems.
Someone's mistake provides the next man's opportunity.
The Southern Peninsula, i.e. Cupertino, is a ripe cat's meow, I do opine,
especially after the tunnel through Devils Slide hardens. But just a
matter of time until the San Andreas pounds everything HARD. At THAT time
we'll see just how many contractors cut corners meeting seismic
standards/upgraded. Furthermore, visual inspections miss most structural
fatigue cracks in a foundation.
Yesterday and Today I've been perusing those Chinese Earthquake photos.
Sobering. And my family and friends in Northern Nevada are just now finding it
difficult (just starting to look) to get earthquake insurance given the
'apparent' increase in odd tremor behavior over the last few months.
Which is more challenging, RE or PM? Over 5, 10, 25, 40 year horizons?
No doubt this: much more blood to come whether through toil or trouble...
5.9.08 A Cooling Planet - Record Temperature Drop Last Year
by Record Amounts
Hadley, NASA GISS, UAH have released updated data. All show that in the past
year that the surface of the earth has DROPPED in temperature, with the steepest
drop in temperature EVER recorded and the steepest change in temperature -
either up or down - EVER recorded!
Reported record drops in surface temperature all over the Earth.
Record cold temperatures recorded in China, Colorado, Minnesota, Texas, Florida,
Chile, Iran, Mexico, Australia, Greenland and Antarctica
Snow cover increases to record levels, not recorded since 1966, in many places
of Siberia and North America.
Ice in the Antarctic grows to RECORD levels; over 1-20 cm thicker in one year
over much of the ice coverage. (Source: Canadian Ice Service, Ottawa.)
China has worst winter in a century. In Bali the weather was been so
severe many towns went days without power due to record levels of ice and snow.
OF course, we 600 Million dollar think-tank.
5.9.08 Ending the run-up in Food Prices
Of course the main stream press (Ministry of Truth) is blaming the 'runup'
(eventually 'crisis') on the speculators - those folks like us who believe in,
and participate, in a free market - commodity or otherwise. Eventually the
oligarchy will fill the yearnings of the great unwashed/uneducated international
socialists by convincing them that 'central pricing' is the solution.
Implemented by the world governmental organizations, naturally.
5.9.08 Energy Prices Impact on Food Prices
Right now there is approximately 6 cents of wheat
in a box of wheaties. The rest of the price is essentially the price of
fuel (packaging and transportation), which have massive current
inflationary pressures. Other costs in a box of wheaties (advertising
and marketing) are in deflationary environments.
What food groups can we expect will experience the
next round of price increases based upon cost increases to production
inputs? First thing to look at is the return ratio between the
energy required to produce the food unit versus the energy returned by
the final food product.
For example, chicken has almost a 1:1 protein
ratio. Eggs have a lesser percentage but have higher handling and
transport costs.
Meat has
almost a 10:1 ratio. That is for 10 units of protein put into a cow, the
yield is only one unit of protein. Hence there should be no surprise
that
Pepperoni
rose 20% in the last 30 days. Increase in water, feed and
transportation costs will push on cattle pricing. So, the cost of
cattle, one of the tow underperforming sectors of the commodity industry
(along with timber) should now begin to rise, right?
Not necessarily. When fuel prices rise
significantly, folks stop eating out as much to save money - or more
likely - to continue to fill the gas tank and otherwise absorb
increasing personal expenditures. In turn, the folks don't walk
down the street to browse retail stores/window shop/go to a movie before
of after a dinner out. In turn, the lack of business at restaurants,
especially walk in business, pinches the revenue stream while at the
same time these businesses are also absorbing higher fuel and commodity
prices. Hence the retail stores and restaurants begin laying folks off,
further reducing the pool of individuals who can afford a night out at
the shops. Therefore demand for meals, especially beef, will fall
commensurately as beef prices rise and producers have more elasticity in
poultry pricing.
In the final analysis,
1) Industry: Look for restaurant
retailers to fall as a sector while those serving vegetable entree's
outperform. Look for pricing elasticity to support poultry
industry over beef industry.
2) Sector: Poultry producers have felt
the crunch of feed and absorbed those costs, resulting in a first
quarter loss for Tyson Foods (TSN). Although TSN has outperformed
Dean Foods, they have lagged behind Smithfield (SFD). So let's
look more closely at the two sector leaders.
3) Technical: Smithfield has already
had a nice run-up in price during the past 30 days and is now trading at
the upper end of its range. TSN, however, looks more like a short
term potential buy as the price has declined on dwindling volume and is
closer to Moving Average support than Smithfield. Medium term the
TSN stock price has formed a nice cup and handle over the last year and
may head higher from here. That possibility, of course, depends
upon larger market action which has been indecisive over the past 12
weeks.
4) Intangible: Bird Flu vs Mad Cow Disease
are a wash on the hysteria scale. "Korea worried about US beef imports"
is the latest (this week) I've read about either.
Action: Bought a small position in TSN @17.30.
5.9.08 More on solar research
Another angle to conducting due diligence: look for
miners with access to silver-tellurium - a requirement for solar panels.
Mexivada is one miner holding the resource.
http://www.mexivada.com/s/Home.asp
5.8.08 Central Sun Mining
Target Raised To C$3.10 From C$2.85
By Blackmont. Alas, I bought higher than
that...
5.8.08 UBS to launch platinum
exchange-traded notes
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=559740
5.8.08 So far so good on the
CDE trade for HL
HL up less than 1% today but CDE up over 5%!
5.7.08 Sold Hecla (HL)
Basically I rotated out of HL and into CDE (bought
a couple days ago).
Didn't like the news regarding the union's supposed
choice for socialization of the Venezuela mine. There is a good chance
(but under 50%) IMO that the news is disguised to shake out weak hands
(like me since I bought short term, as a trade) before the stock shoots
up for the insiders. However, GRZ and KRY (which I still have half of
the original an decent trading position) both in Venezuela, have been
massacred in the last couple weeks. Don't want to take the chance with a
profitable (20%) trade in HL made in just a month.
5.6.08 Getchell Mine, ABX/NEM
JV has third fatality in under a year.
Fatality clusters suggest management problems.
5.5.08 General Molybdenum
releases pre-feasibility study for Hall-Tonopah-Liberty Project
http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2008/05/09/news/mining_news/mining76.txt
5.5.08 Went to the Vallejo
Coin Show Yesterday
A smaller affair than the Sacramento soiree. The
Vallejo Numismatic Society does a great job with this show IMO.
5.3.08 Went to the Sacramento
Coin Club Show Yesterday
Dealers set up about 40 tables. The hosting
coin club put on a Great display, thanks for that. Traffic was
slow, possibly reflecting a couple facts (IMO). For one, the
retail coin market has been slowing down. Folks don't feel as rich as
they did a couple years ago, discretionary income has disappeared - if
not in their 'home value' than certainly in their monthly cash flow as
costs have substantially risen, hence the discretionary income necessary
for coin collecting isn't there as it had been for the last seven years.
Additionally, this show was just a few days after
another Sacramento Show, put on by John McIntosh. Don't know the
politics behind the situation that presents two similar size/type shows
within a fortnight of each other, but can't help imagining that it
dilutes buyer traffic/interest. First time I've attended a show at this
particular venue, the Dante Club on Fair Oaks Blvd. Other Sacramento
venues I've been to, such as the Red Lion at Arden, Cal Expo or the
Convention Center at least had the possibility of capturing some walk-by
or drive-by traffic. Can't see how this current venue has that
possibility, however. Also, I understand that Sunday is actually a
better day for traffic at a Sac coin show than Friday (I was there
@12-3).
Had some trouble finding what I look for, though
did chat and buy from a dealer whom I never met previously, Virgel
Nickell out of Santa Ana (great name for a dealer). He makes a
market in National Bank Notes (surprisingly, not nickels). I told
him I saw a Lovelock National note go through Ebay last week or two (he
doesn't have a computer). Apparently only Tonopah Bank Notes are
more rare. Didn't buy any notes (the prices have gone crazy in
just the last three years), but he did have a number of casino chips
that I was interested in (prices have also gotten up there). I
picked up nice set of Tonopah Club casino chips from him. Otherwise,
purchased a few 'good for' tokens and a couple of erotic tokens from one
dealer and a few pieces of ephemera from John Heleva. Bruce Braga
(nice guy) spent some time teaching me and another gent a bit about
watches; both of us had just received older pocket watches in the last
week.
Hope they all had more traffic yesterday. Off now
to the Vallejo Show...
5.1.08 Bought CDE
About 2.99. Haven't owned this stock since 2006. It
outperformed in 2003 and has just been a drag on the gold indices ever
since. Hoping it turns around, but am willing to place rather close
stops on this trade - close as compared to most my trades, that is.
4.30.08 Just read an article
About families selling their junk on-line to pay
bills.
Never used LiveDeal.com and AuctionPal.com before.
I'm looking into auction pay right now - seems a little buggy on first
blush.
4.30.08 KRY - down 45%
Wow, Talk about getting lucky - selling half of KRY
before it gets slammed on news Venezuela will nationalize the mines!
Should have sold all of it...
4.28.08 Ugh, gold stocks
gettin hit again
Sold half my KRY, one of the more most recent
purchases. Keeping the silver index ETF: SLV
4.27.08 Nevada Republican Ends in disaster/recess.
Mostly b.c. there wasn't enough show of hand for transparency and wit to moral
compass.
http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080426/NEWS18/80426047&OAS_sitepage=news.rgj.com%2Fbreakingnews
Only fitting, look at the state's republican 'leader': JimmyBoyGibbons. Sure,
I've been reporting on his slime for years; but now the mainlining press is
finally willing to give the devil his 15 minutes and report on investigations
into his morass by the FBI; reports of sexual battery; gross mismanagement of
the state budget/dereliction of duty; general incompetence; and this weekend,
the fact his wife is leaving him. Luckily NV is a no-fault divorce
state...
4.26.08 Coverage of Solar Sector
http://www.bizmology.com/2008/04/24/first-solar-its-shares-are-worth-more-than-2-barrels-of-oil/
The solar sector Exchange Traded Fund, TAN, started trading this month.
Generally I am only a fan of ETFs for other folks (especially in their defined
contribution plans) moreso than myself. About the only time I want to hold
an ETF is for a short term trade. For example I use SLV and GLD to capitalize on
expected short term moves in the market rather then schlepp ounces of physical
into the brick and mortar store. One exception is PHO, simply because I am a
little overweight (or trying to be) in the water sector and want the underlying
fund in addition to cherry picking out individual companies.
The reason I prefer to buy stakes in individual companies is I believe the real
value of the stock market is its inefficiency: The ability to arbitrage
value by picking out stocks that are, for whatever reason, trading at a discount
to their true current value. Secondarily the benefit is catching a cyclical or
secular trend early. In this case, TAN meets the latter consideration, but
not the first. since TAN is only in 6 countries, and especially since the market
performance isn't established, I am unconvinced of the value therein.
Moreover, how will you determine a buy price given the scant technical
indicators. Also, no dividend? Would be remiss if I didn't state my
general distrust of ETFs. We have dissected SLV/GLD to death on this board.
While I am willing to take the risk of holding the ETF short term, in the final
analysis I find the vehicles are just another paper scam and hope I am not on
the merry-go-round when the music stops.
Regarding the fundamental: I am a big believer in passive solar thought not so
impressed with where we are currently at with active solar technology and am
completely underwhelmed in the advances made in the sector over the past 25
years. Although advances in the last three years, especially in the fabric, look
compelling - at least on the surface.
On the plus side, I see you are diversifying out of bullion from a very
overweight position to a less overweight position. I can see US equities
generally out-performing bullion for the rest of the year, but at what cost?
And, ICBW. Surely we would have to assign TAN a higher beta, right. In
such case what can we assign the alpha? Not sure the expected return at this
point is worthy of entry. However, the low daily volume, especially on the down
side, looks attractive. One could argue that folks just haven't found the fund
yet, but when they do...
As far as I can tell, here are my previous posts herein on sector members.
Note my picks haven't been stellar, though neither buys were a long term trade.
12.13.07 ESLR - Evergreen Solar
This
stock has been on a huge run. Haven't held it since I bought
3.1.06 and sold about a week later for a lousy 8%. Thing is, it
went up just a tad after that and has been down ever since until this
last week. In the last 12 weeks it's up from $9 to over 15 today.
Up 14% in after hours trading today alone to now over $17.5. Maybe
let it sell off and then buy in again when the dust settles for another
trade.
3.1.06 Just Trading
Hope you lightened up in GPXM today around .40? Another double
courtesy o' yours truly (in just 10 weeks). Sell half on the two
bagger; you'll often get a chance to re-enter later. And if not, your
shares are free anyway so quit yer bitchin and find another stock to
buy. what, all the other eight stox in the little index are yukky?
boo hoo, go find another acorn.
Potential nice entry points in LRCZ, ESLR, ENER, CSTR. All short
term. Watch 'em close. This choppy volatile action in the major market
may be marking a medium term top. Caught a reeel nice entry in NT
lately, but didn't have time to mention here. Doesn't matter where
the sources or your profit derive if they all buy the same piece of
gold.
The sector has generally shown lackluster in the past 104 weeks, after a nice
two year run-up. I had also held a couple stocks through the nice run-up
of 04 into 05, but sold a little early (mid05) rather than waiting until the
blow off top later in the year. [Can't find if/where I posted those trades]. Oh
well. At that time in 04 I took a good look at renewable/alternative energy
sector/projects, especially in Ca/Nv and especially vis a vis the mining sector:
9.10.04 Navy emergency oil reserves
The Navy had another very large reserve in Hawaii. Red (
Hawk? ) Hill, I believe. Never was on the books.
How else would they power the Pacific fleet come crunch time?
9.10.04 The majority of US Mercury
pollution
is via aeolian deposition from coal power plants. Could
this possibly be related to pushing back the mercury air quality credit
requirements until 2018?
9.10.04 Coal vs. renewable in
the west US
Coal vs. renewable Ca energy?
The fact is, Nevada will lead the way in determining what
the energy sources used in Ca. are. Ca. is not building many new power plants,
but Nv. is.
For an example of the fight between coal vs. renewable, look at the struggle in
the Gerlach desert. Right now, there is a Major Fight over what the black
rock/smoke creek will look like and how it will be used for the next 50 years,
based upon the power generation picture ( amongst other land use issues ) .
There are two competing projects: One will produce via wind and thermal and
supply Nv. The other is a coal project that will supply S. Ca. will be
interesting to see which one prevails. There are seven decent articles about the
subject at this link ( look under -home page- ) :
http://www.rgj.com/news/search.php?submit=day&d=2004-08-22
Then, compare growth rates of population, business, and
gdp in Nv. vs. Ca. to see why the current leader in these categories, and the
infrastructure components that serve as support ( water power ) , and the
leading-edge discussions around these issues, are centered in the Great Basin.
9.10.04 Clean coal technology
is a misnomer. really, it's 20% technology and 80%
operation and maintenance.
guess where the failures appear. Then watch how they try to legislate
efficiency; commensurate with past attempts to legislate morality...
9.10.04 Nv Power
Let me bottom line it for all y'all. Saving 250 million in
power use is better than building 250 million worth of power plants.
Naturally, the Ca. energy, ahem, crisis provided great visibility for the Nv
power issues.
( Ca "deregulation" {ya [Scottish] rite}- removed market balance between
suppliers and transmitters )
Additionally, in 2001 the legislature mandated Sierra Pacific to obtain 5% of
its power through renewable resources by 2004, with bi-annual increases from
this baseline ending in 2013 with a 13% share. Solar, wind, and geothermal were
the primary areas of emphasis.
Personally, I think many have not given proper weighting to the possible use of
micro ( water ) turbines that have greatly benefited from better technology in
just the last 5-7 years. Microturbines are perfect as small batch plants and
match Nv. geography of isolated water sources within parameters of steep
gradient relief and seasonal supply.
Ormat has some interesting projects going on related to geothermal; not quite
sure yet how the Israelis decided to buy a stake in the Nv. power game?
Geothermal is a major spec. at this point, as I have hinted here b4. course, it
is just another switch-and-bait technique. Nothing about geothermal is
?renewable?. The real deal is the mineral, access, and water rights ? but I?ll
right/write that up another day.
Desert Research Institute is, of course, an intellectual powerhouse vis a vis
solar.
Nevada has more sunshine than any other state: )
I would be most remiss had I left out the choice the US Air Force made to screw
Nv ONCE AGAIN via reneging on the MNS wind project ( 85 meg ) at the test site.
Bottom line: nobody wants to provide up-front financing for 'green' energy. Too
much risk, too many examples of major fed land managers screwing the public for
the umpteemph time; too much uncertainty in the major supplier/transmitter
financial picture.
Hence, the focus must remain on conserving, not producing, power. Again, better
to save 250 million in power than building 250 million in power plants. Maybe it
isn't too late to get the homebuilders on board?
9.10.04 Nv. Power and Miners
chairman, president and CEO of Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp
just recently served on the board of directors of the largest power generator in
Nv.
9.10.04 Wind power isn't happening in
Nv.
too many false starts. calif. pulled out price supports (
major reduction ) this last ( past ) fiscal year in the form of rebates for
solar purchases.
9.10.04 Is Barrick building a power
plant in Nv
b.c. they think it will lower their price/oz au
production, or because they think they can build AND supply under 9cents/kwh?
Where they bought the land should be your first clue...
Other miners have sought to build power plants adjacent to
their mines and mills. Usually cheaper to build their own power plant than to
build new transmission lines to import power only to lose a fair percentage of
the energy from transmission.
For example, GRZ operations in Nv.
My question is will the government of Venezuela allow GRZ
to retail the power?
When researching the power numbers, remember to differentiate between the retail
gross and wholesale cost. In other words, we should look for the GRZ cash
on cash net for the power stream?
Two big issues: 1 ) How each derive the wholesale costs and 2 ) What the margin
on re-sale is.
My hunch is that GRZ will have a whole lot less demand in their neighborhood
than what ABx is drooling over...
OR, could ABX only be in it for the gold? (he he he)
9.10.04 Gold miners are the
single largest user of power in Northern Nevada
Another fact. Where will they get their power from?
Look to Barrick plans for development of a power company in the Rainbow area for
a clue...
You can see that I was at that time unconvinced save one fact: the sector has
almost as many charlatans as the gold sector, but not quite as many as the
financial industry. For that matter, I put more of my bets on water - especially
geothermal (Ormat/USGeo; NvGEo) as described and previously written. I remain
more bullish on the water/geo and nuclear plays over the biofuel/solar/wind
plays; but perhaps it's time for another look. The past year Ca. and Nv.
were the 1 and 2, respectively, largest developers of new solar projects.
Do believe the federal tax credits end this year...although there are
congressional movements (currently three different bills) to extend the credits.
Not that congressional movements are generally a good thing...
Well, there you go: one half-baked flake take on the make for your sake and
fwiw...
Other folks suggested the following solar plays: CSIQ, TEL
and AKNS
4.23.08 Nevada Mining Association Opposes proposed reform
to 1872 Mining Act
http://www.nma.org/mining_law.asp
Doesn't matter, the politicians know best. After all, look at what a great
job CONgress did by mandating the nations corn supply go toward ethanol. Now we
have a food crisis brewing on top of the energy crisis. Everybody wins!
4.23.08
The Reno Gazette Journal ran this piece at the very nadir
of the metal markets in 1999.
Perfect timing on the bottom. Nobody could sell their house in the small
mining towns, nobody could find a job, the mines were all shut down or
mothballed. An interesting read, now that the metals have
tripled-sextupled in 9 years and the mining firms cannot fill the jobs.
http://www.nevadanet.com/special/index.htm
In 1999 both the RGJ and the Elko News Daily had writers on the mining
beat. Now neither of them do, just run whatever dreck the newswire
feeds.
The papers would've been better served focusing on the coming
destruction of the entire newspaper industry. Maybe then they would've
re-schooled themselves and obtained some marketable skills like water
treatment, welding, plumbing, or heavy equipment mechanics. Nah, they
probably moonlighted for a realtor license...
4.23.08
Just a FEW of those Devising a New and Improved Water Crisis
from amongst the many:
http://acwi.gov/swrr/
http://www.waterweb.org/
http://www.unesco.org/water/
http://www.worldwatercouncil.org/
and you thought the oncoming food crisis is scary!
4.23.08
US metal mine restoration projects
some good stuff here:
http://ecorestoration.montana.edu/mineland/histories/metal/default.htm
4.23.08
Worth Its Weight In Gold
When the load becomes to heavy, leaning on the fiat-denominated world,
they tinker with the scales...
4.23.08
James C. Russo English and Russian Collection up for Auction
Some nice pieces there:
http://www.news-antique.com/?id=784103
Tried to figure out if he was
related to Aaron Russo, and therefore receiving some wonderful advice
along the way. Was not able to make the connection. There is James C.
Russo with an acting career, but not sure if its the same guy with the
Princeton economic heritage. Anybody know?
4.23.08
Australian Mining Research Collaboration
The mining sector appears
grossly undercapitalized. Not sure I see a fundamental vision how
the industry will meet the energy, transportation, social and
environmental problems roiling beneath the surface. At least a few
are posing inquiries into strategies and approaches for the next few
decades:
http://www.amira.com.au/?section=about&page=top
Then again, maybe we just
stop mining for 20-30 years or so, and see what happens...
4.22.08
Greywolf (GW on the Amex)
May be setting up a buy. Look
for support where the 100 day moving average touches the 200 day moving
average (which has just begun to turn up.) Probably between 6.40 and
6.88. Anybody research fundamentals on this one? Thoughts?
4.21.08
Titanium Supplier
http://www.westerntitanium.com/about.htm
4.20.08
Which is the Role Model for the US: Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany?
I think the US equivalent
will run more along the Zimbabwe lines. Weimer was still Germany.
Zimbabwe had been Rhodesia until US state department and kin installed
Mugabe; things are unfolding as planned.
The producers in Rhodesia didn't have a chance after the regime change.
Same thing coming down the pike for the US: class and race warfare,
producers emigrate or forced out, despot and supporters finish off
what's left.
4.20.08
Circulating coinage - on the way out...
Just got back from South Lake
Tahoe. Out of the five casino's there, only one has slot machines
that payout change. And there's only about 20 of those machines.
The industry is perfecting the automation of paper-accepting machines.
Technology is very close now to replicating in other sectors (vending,
etc.).
4.17.08
Another sector arbitrage pair: MRB and KGC
Caught this one real nice:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s=KGC&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=mrb
MRB performed 2x as well as
KGC. Wow, how similar they traded throughout most of the period
and how differently they traded for a two week period to end march,
which made the deal.
Look to make a decision next
week...
"1.24.08 Traded out of KGC and back into MRB today."
4.17.08.
The Mackay School of Mining, one of the Finest in North America
Is celebrating 100 years of
excellence.
http://localsearch.rgj.com/sp?aff=1135&eventId=1990042&skin=100
Note the new name change based on the
'global-warming-green-sustainability' tax breaks expected down the
road...
4.17.08 Can we trade/arbitrage
the pick-a-pair strategy based on weighting in a given index?
For example, XAU? The percentage that any one
company comprises of the XAU changes as the price of that stock
increases/decreases. So right now if GG is about 16% of the XAU
and NEM is about 9%, can we make an informed bet -based upon historical
weightings - that one firm has a higher probability to increase its
position weighting in the XAU over the short/medium term as it reverts
back towards the mean weighting?
Something to look into...
4.17.08 Looking over a Five
Week Trading Period
Update: Time to check in on
the trades posted on March 8th:
"AGT. This stock should run to 0.98. You might
consider this pullback here as a buy opportunity. Disclaimer, I am in at
51 and 28 cents."
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
Still looks good.
b. Copper Stock. Plenty of people been calling
for copper to drop in the last three years. Every one of them wrong. The
fundamentals are still there and copper has just now looked bullish
again technically. Loot at Qua.to and PCU. Disclaimer, I own Quat (in at
4.15), but just sold PCU. You might get it cheaper than current.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&s=PCU&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=QUA.to
Right, this serves as example
of my 'pick a pair' strategy. Choose two decent (fundamentally sound
companies) in a strong industry/sector (mining/copper) and play the
strength arbitrage between the two. That is, one of the pair will
exhibit stronger prices action over any given period of time (I am using
5 -weeks currently). Buy the firm that indicates a higher
probability to out-perform the other stock in the pair. Re-evaluate and
re-position (if necessary) after five weeks. In this case, we did well
with Qua.to and, indeed, PCU is much cheaper than 5 weeks ago. Even
today, as of now PCU is down 2% whereas Quat.to is up. Hence, today is
the time to switch out of Qua.to and go into PCU. Amazing how well
copper has performed, definitely stunning the field of analysts trying
to sweat the pipe the wrong way!
If you can’t buy those stocks in your accounts,
here’s another couple freebies:
c. AT&T has posted 80% sales growth with
earnings growth 12% + for the past four quarters. Paying a 4.5
dividend yield.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=t
Update: Ok, up 10% in five
weeks. Had been up more last week, looks iffy and uncertain here, with a
bias lower. Time to sell for short term horizon, or hold for long term
(and dividend).
d. Pfizer. Discredited by analysts due to
competition from generic drug makers. Thing is, the generics don’t have
the same quality lobbyists.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=pfe
Update: Ouch, bad day and bad
month. Down over 6% in the period. Of course, they don't
provide quite the same level of anaylsis on the generic firms. Of
course, that is roughly the dividend the company still pays. Since the
buy is long term horizon (based on politics), the stock is still a hold
in our portfolio, though the stop loss is close.
5. Of course, the best place to put money right
now is in real estate.
Update: Enough said. Maybe
wait and see if the next round of 'housing reform legislation' does
include the 7k tax incentive for purchase of foreclosed properties. IF
so, that is an additional 3-5% off the purchase price on some of the
places I've been looking at recently.
The next five week trading
period will end just before Memorial Day. This is a common time to
re-evaluate and potentially pull back/scale out on some positions.
"Sell in May and go away" matches sometimes, but not always, long term
seasonals. So the five week period lines up nicely on the seasonal
evaluation epoch; that makes the next evaluation more heavily weighted,
and likely more difficult to read as a result.
4.17.08 Right Now, a Roth IRA
account (US) Cannot Have Margin Rights
However, there is legislation introduced in the US
which would allow the little folks a plastic card where they can make
revolving withdrawals from their IRA! If that passes, there must
be some tangent to allow margin (you've got to figure that some folks
will find a way to get 'overdrawn).
Just another ploy to prop up the markets a little
bit longer...by keeping the folks in debt and buying a little bit
longer.
Indeed, there are numerous 'gurus' who have been
making the 'investment seminar circuit' pitching how to buy real estate
within your Roth IRA. Just another notch on the stick beating the
little people into submission on the way to completely
withdrawing/margining the last financial bastion left, their retirement
funds.
4.16.08
Symbol Change: UGTH now HTM and now trades on AMEX
We're in at 0.90. Long
term I still like this play, US Geothermal.
4.16.08
Hecla takes 100% interest in Greens Creek Mine
Rio Tinto has enough larger
fry to fish.
per PR Newswire - April 16,
2008 3:41 PM ET
4.16.08
Discipline
How can those who trade,
watch multiple screens on various accounts across multiple platforms,
track news and issues across the globe real-time from numerous feeds,
determine alpha beta positioning timing trending and analysis for more
than one individual, bucking the grain, providing valuable insight and
wisdom, making money where others have failed, consistently...
not have the simple ability to scroll those posts lacking flavor to
their particular predilection?
4.16.08
Yamana Gold (AUY) Keeping its Name in Play
Announces news to announce
its news
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080416/0387475.html?.pf=banking-budgeting
Seems to be working, up
strongly today.
4.16.08
EBay to end 'eBay Live Auctions'
The firm is quitting that
portion that allows real-time auctions hosted by various auction houses
after seven years.
LiveAuctioneers will now
venture out as a separate concern.
Per Kovels.com
4.15.08
No Coverage No Press, No Notice
The balance of power changed
last week in the Mexican Parliament.
4.11.08
Been a Little Busy
Birth of a Son! Both he and I
have eyes wide open and mom doing well...
4.7.08
Nevada State Legislators Act to Block Senators from Locking up More
Rural Land
There are certainly some
beautiful areas in this area. No reason for wilderness designation
though. Water will limit development; the minerals are already
leased and will be grandfathered in anyway, and ranching would also be
grandfathered in. Only reason for wilderness designation is to eliminate
vehicle (especially motorcycle and ATV access). Same thing has happened
all over the state in the last twenty years. Best to keep the little
people penned up in the cities where we can keep a camera on 'em.
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2008804070341
4.4.08
Pan Am Exposition Coins to be displayed at Santa Clara coin show next
weekend.
Believe this was the same set
displayed two years ago. Awesome!
http://www.news-antique.com/?id=784115&keys=coins-collectibles-Exposition-gold
4.4.08
Was just looking at an Illinois Offering from about 100 years ago
Real Estate Gold Bond paying
6%
That one pretty much covered all the bases; especially compared to the
'Asset Backed Securities' (read: 'Subprime') of today!
4.3.08
The New Gold Rush
The Sacramento Bee had a
story today which led off with this beauty:
"The Sierra Nevada is
littered with gold, the celebrity element that rocked financial
institutions last month at a record $1,000 an ounce in futures trading.
Suddenly, gold panning has become a hot recreational activity..."
Oh yeah. It was gold which
caused the panic in the financial markets last week. Surely the
panic had nothing to do with:
- The assets of Bear
Stearns forced at the point of the gun into JPMorgan by the Fed wheras
the US taxpayer took on teh debts, over 30Billion worth.
- The Fed trampling all over
what little financial jurisdiction Congress previously wielded
- A spooked press claiming
'Recession'. Mostly b.c. they're getting laid off since nobody wants to
place an add in their irrelevant little rag anymore, and they have no
real marketable skills in the larger job market.
- Poor financials and
technical pictures in most US bond markets
Yep, it was the little
nuggets and pieces of rock in the ground to blame for it all. And at the
same time, the only thing its good for is to waste the time of some
folks with a pan down at the American River because they have no other
way to met that mortgage this month.
4.1.08
Happy April
Bought AUY and SLV today,
nice entry points IMO (hopefully): 100-day EMA on SLV. AUY shows
nice support on Fibonacci targets and declining sell volume.
3.26.08
Mining Law of 1872 - Reform Efforts
Very little discussion on
this topic. When Senators Domenici and Reid leave, the bill
ALREADY passed by the house will pass the senate IMO. AT that time
all mining valuations in the US will change overnight. The current
round of hearings in Nv. are to determine just how much reform the
Nevada population with a stake in the mining community will currently
accept.
3.17.08
Today the US Definitively Crosses the Threshold into Fascism
Treasury Secretary, formerly
the head of major Bear Stearns Competitor Goldman Sachs, and his buddies
at JP Morgan signed a deal with the devil (the Federal Reserve). The
Fed, in turn, forced Bear Stearns into insolvency. They took over the
assets and the US taxpayer, through your wage taxes, absorbed the bad
debt. A government appointed receiver, Bernanke, now handpicks
which banks will receive your money, and which banks must surrender
their assets to his friends.
3.16.08
Little People and their Litter: Main Street Economics, Installment Three
Picked up a bunch of deposit
receipts strewn on the ground, draped across the ATM bench, and
lingering around the trash receptacle outside the ATM at my nearest Bank of
America Branch. (Had they any decency, they would offer the services of
a shredder, or at least a recycle bin). Slips were from a Saturday
morning and early afternoon.
C) 3264.38 wdl 60
S) 108.38 (inquiry only)
C) 1660.20
wdl 80
C) 2454.08
wdl 60
C) 414.19
wdl 40
C) 99.13
wdl 300
C) 6210.23
wdl 200
C) 3129.67
wdl 60
C) 26,315.50
wdl 500
C) 912.75
dep 850.58
C) 3553.59
wdl 40
C) 2564.58 wdl 200
S) 15995.83
wdl 100.
C) 7407.98
wdl 60
343 (credit card balance?)
C) 460.00 inquiry only
C) 21.37
dep 5.00
C) 1760.06
dep 573.08
Wow, that is a LOT more in
the average balance from the first two times I conducted this exercise.
So, I went back and looked at the types of account the slips
represented, either checking (C) or savings (S), and put the types in
parenthesis in front of the amount. Also, my sense is that these
balances also reflect paycheck deposits from yesterday (Friday) and
those checks deposited which arrive at the middle of the month. I
then went to each line and described the type of activity with each
account: Deposit (dep), Balance Inquiry, or Withdrawal (wdl). To
further standardize this exercise, I should probably select two or three
dates a month. Once on a Thursday at the end of the month (suspected
balance low), then the first Thursday of the month (to capture the first
of the month deposits) and the first Saturday of the month (to see what
was withdrawn/spent from the fist of the month and first Friday of the
month). Over time sample size and bias errors can be corrected.
Average Balance on March 15,
2008: $4,259
Average Balance from Oct 24
07 $815
Average Balance from May 07
$100.87
3.14.08
Bank Collapse Chronicles: Bear Stearns
Today Bear Stearn's
competitors and the federal government prevented a complete collapse
into insolvency only through emergency infusions of cash not seen since
the great US depression in the 1930's. Without this action, the
nations fifth-largest investment bank would have seen the bank runs of
yesterday and earlier today completely freeze up any shred of liquidity
left to these criminals, err bankers.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080314/NATION/389884701/1002
Only reason the commercial
banks haven't had runs yet is due to the unlimited piles of fiat poured
from your taxpaying pocket into their coffers in the last few weeks.
Even that hasn't prevented the necessity for these top US banks to also
seek bailouts from foreign countries.
What a stunning turn of
events, Bernanke was wrong (or - could he/it be -lying; nah!); it wasn't
the small local banks with Real Estate portfolios that would fail first.
Nope, straight to the top. The bedrock of American Finance for the last
80 years is quivering/shaking like the shanties of Manhattan built on
the fill, not the bedrock. Ho Hum. (hey, those that agreed with the
Breakdown of BAC as I posted 2.29 have a quick 15% in a fortnight. Take
it when you can, turn the paper into something worthwhile).
If you've read this thread
this long, you might listen to that inner voice: Time to sell your GLD
and SLV (which had been outperforming physical metal) and buy physical
gold and silver.
Just don't tell anybody...
If you really would like a
great study in the fall of financial empires, look at the timing of when
the corporation builds a monument to themselves. Rabbi Daniel
Lapin provided a great overview of this phenomena in his Tower of Babel
series. Pan Am built their Manhattan Monolith at the height of
their power. The firm is now erased from the business world. Sears
built their tower, tallest in the world at on point. The tower opened
the same year the price of Sears hit their all time high; all downhill
since. Same with a number of other firms; amazing concept.
Bear Stearns built their
headquarters in New York, in (do believe) 2001. Great timing. They've
lost approximately 80% of their value in the last 52 weeks. Most
likely will be around in name only (taken over by another entity)
another 52 weeks from now.
3.13.08
Hey Look, the new Enemy of the State
Defenseless mothers with
small children and puppies.
3.8.08
Market Thoughts
1. Time to dump Mutual Fund Equivalents in favor of
T-bills. Just in the last couple days the equivalents have run into
liquidity troubles.
2. Dump non-traded REITS. The commercial
construction numbers have definitely topped out.
3. Sell GLD before April 10th
4. Stocks on Buy Signals
a. AGT
Announced really good resource results for the
Timmins Black Fox property. The news was leaked, of course, as the stock
broke out of a one year basing pattern through trendline resistance.
This came right after the stock was taken off the Reg-Sho list, after
being on the list for the maximum 13 day period.
This stock should run to 0.98. You might consider
this pullback here as a buy opportunity.
Disclaimer, I am in at 51 and 28 cents.
b. Copper Stock. Plenty of people been calling for
copper to drop in the last three years. Every one of them wrong. The
fundamentals are still there and copper has just now looked bullish
again technically. Loot at Qua.to and PCU. Disclaimer, I own Quat (in at
4.15), but just sold PCU. You might get it cheaper than current.
If you can’t buy those stocks in your accounts,
here’s another couple freebies:
c. AT&T has posted 80% sales growth with earnings
growth 12% + for the past four quarters. Paying a 4.5 dividend
yield.
d. Pfizer. Discredited by analysts due to
competition from generic drug makers. Thing is, the generics don’t have
the same quality lobbyists.
5. Of course, the best place to put money right now
is in real estate.
Still some more downside to go, but the house I
bought was at a foreclosure auction for 60% less than it was originally
listed at in October 2005. This place will cashflow right now, barely.
As I said, I plan to buy another rental within three years, maybe
sooner. SFH rent should triple net 12% in this city by then. Even
though the long bond has just begun to move up, the short term yields
won’t be anywhere near that in three years. The US fed is falling into
exactly the same trap that vexed Japan for 20 years. How many times have
you herd folks on the radio over the past3-4 years say the interest
rates were at a low and could only go up. Wrong, Japan lowered all the
down to 01% and aren’t much higher than that right now. Some try
to rationalize and make statements to the effect; "But the demographics
in Japan were different" or "We have more transparency in the banking
system which will help prevent the financial industry from dragging down
the country for years" or other half-baked cakes. Nope. Fact is
the BOJ reached the incompetence level just before becoming irrelevant,
much like our Federal Reserve bank is doing right now.
Exactly nobody is recommending buying SFH right
now. There are even some better real estate plays right now, but I won’t
go into those just yet.
3.7.08
What a Quandary.
should we sell physical
metals that have increased 400-900%?
We could:
- buy an asset declining in
price
- buy an asset we hope has
stopped declining, and will rise
- purchase a toy or liability
just for giggles,
and the crux of the matter:
buy or sell debt?
In some cases I can see that
the decision to pay off our own (or family's) debt might be a forced
decision. Telling a loved one to just sell the house because this
will be the third month the can't meet mortgage isn't all that easy to
say, nor that easy to make happen.
Buffet characterized it well
last week, the financial markets are currently "de-leveraging".
Now, if everybody ELSE is
deleveraging, why would WE want to do the same? When everybody was
throwing fiat and margin at NasDuffy/QQQ in 2000, WE we accumulating
physical. Now that the slag has a quadruple, the same everybody (or a
small percentage therein, actually) wants to buy the slag FROM us. I can
appreciate the sensibility in taking profit of the table (certainly
those buys in GLD/SLV made last year), but why deleverage? Especially
now that everyone else is deleveraging. Isn't that the exact time to
start to build your own personal leverage, both in capacity and fact?
3.7.08
Washington Mutual on the Ropes
largest U.S. savings-and-loan
institution stakes out a street corner to wave the tin cup, hailing for
alms and charity:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080307/bs_nm/wamu_funds_dc
3.6.08
Buying a House with a Bag of Silver or a Few Coins in Precious Metal
There are numerous houses in
Detroit where you can purchase a house for less than a bag of silver,
way less in many cases.
In fact, Detroit has a
program where they will give you a house if you can show enough
income/moxie to keep the house up, pay taxes, and beat back the looters.
makes sense to give 'em away, keep the tax base up. otherwise the houses
end up crack dens>eyesores>shells>arson practice ranges. arson HAS to be
an up-n-coming crime. all the businesses that need to be torched to hide
massive losses need to be lit BEFORE the insurance companies go broke
(and that might be next week).
Cleveland is next...
The city program where they
offer up free houses got me to thinking, that's another reason to begin
dipping ones toes into real estate right now - SFH and small apartment
units.
there may well come that day when the city is willing to give away a
block, if you can show cause and the ability to successfully rent out,
maintain, and landlord the place. Cities have created both more
ridiculous and wise programs than that.
Besides, who wants to buy into commercial RE pools right now, anyway?
3.4.08
northern nevada snowpack down to average
http://www.nevadaappeal.com/article/20080221/NEWS/664771239
There was a time it took about five below-average water years for folks
to begin mentioning 'the drought'.
now it just takes one below-average year (that was last year). so we all
get a one year reprieve...
3.4.08
Rest in Peace Gary Gygax
the archetype architect of
the inner matrix finally teleported to the ethereal plane.
3.2.08
And to Think there Was a Day
when a man would spend days
and weeks
toiling in the hills and rivers
go gather a grain or a gram
and forge
and pound with iron
and stamp further, pressing his mark
and fashion with all the artistic embellishments his mind could devise
in times much simpler than these,
and sayeth:
"yes, that is worthy of One Dollar"
http://www.charlesdanek.com/sites/numismatics/pages/c-cal.gold.htm
today is not that yesterday.
2.29.08 Head of the US Federal
Reserve Confirms Bank Failures Forthcoming
Did you hear Bernanke’s testimony yesterday
(2.28.08) in front of Congress?
When asked about the possibility of US bank
failures, he essentially said the event is not just a possibility, but
likely. Have not seen this discussed very widely the financial press,
for the obvious reasons.
“I expect there will be some (bank) failures”. He
later went on to explain position Bernanke Panke, that he expects the
large banks will come out alright but that small regional banks carrying
real estate portfolios will go bankrupt.
Uhmm, Yeah.
The only reason the large banks won’t go out is
because the little people (that’s you and I) will continue to subsidize
the large banks. The fed has already injected over $50 US Billion into
the banking system just to keep it afloat. That hasn’t been near enough
to prevent he banks from selling part control to Middle Eastern
governments.
Furthermore, the large banks have well-funded
lobbyists already working on legislation they will ram through the
puppet congress. This legislation, which will be called “Preservation of
Homeowner Rights Act” or something equally vapid will, of course, have
the exact opposite effect.
Spoke with a gentleman at length yesterday; he
worked for Bank of America (BAC) for 17 years. He completely
agreed with my supposition that BAC took over the failing country wide
for this expressed reasons:
BAC buys the debts and assets together at
rock-bottom prices.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bank-america-buy-countrywide-financial/story.aspx?guid=39417545-5DC7-4CD1-862D-5939F89D9667
BAC will pass the legislation that underwrites
their debts, while they re-sell the assets. Socialize the losses
and privatize the gains. Same as it ever was.
Start to watch you local bank very carefully…
Anybody think Visa (V) is going public, to raise
the dough, to buy out some failing bank real estate portfolios, to ride
the coattails of the BAC legislation?
BAC broke support today, entered bearish trend.
Need more volume for confirmation, but looks ugly anyway. Perhaps
the market movers haven’t noticed the BAC lobbyists wining/dining/paying
off the right politicians. Or mayhaps there has been a public rebuke
noted on high; the crooked pols will not longer accept BAC ‘money’, and
require gold bullion only. har!
2.29.08 Now, the gentleman
rancher had just given up
On his efforts to run 40 cattle and some other
crops on a rural Missouri farm.
The drought and the cost of feed two of the primary
reasons.
Another interesting discussion. Beef prices
have been in the cellar, cheap product from .s America, Aus., And
Canada. I figure the market must turn given the strength of the
Aud and Can dollar. But I don’t know cattle operations. I do
know a few folks who do know, thankfully. One friend trying to make a
go at it up north california. Another deal, one of the largest
Nevada ranches, sold over 3$million in studs recently at Fallon, Nv.
They had been paying 60K A MONTH in feed: mostly corn and silage.
Naturally corn has been artificially/politically
(like there is a difference) by the legislation pushing ethanol. So too
silage has a substitution driver: anaerobic biofuel feedstock.
Lovely choice the engineered energy crisis has
presented on our silver platter:
“Food or Fuel today, ‘maam?”.
Just as many can afford both as neither…
2.28.08
The guy responsible for Elko County’s response
to last week’s earthquake in Wells.
Was at his first day on the job.
http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2008/02/22/news/breaking_news/ab10.txt
Welcome to work!
2.24.08
Effort by the Powers that Be to Stem the Growing Foreclosure Avalanche
If neither a legal technicality nor an
obstructionist judicial branch, What – if anything - CAN stop the rising
tide of foreclosures?
A few clumsy attempts so far:
Project Lifeline
This program contains very little substance. What
provisions there are mainly serve as a framework to drape over a glossy
public relations campaign designed by the major lenders. Lets face it,
freeing foreclosures for 30 days won’t allow enough time to even
complete the paperwork. Had you ever worked with a major lender,
tried to reach a knowledgeable staff person at country wide who speaks
your language, or dealt with HUD knows, just getting the process started
takes weeks. Getting someone to reply, in any meaningful fashion, could
take months.. Some are lucky they can confirm receipt of a simple fax in
five working days.
And of course in California, the program is
essentially meaningless since the homeowner can postpone a trustee sale
with proper notice.
Nevertheless, if you’d like to read the press
release and look at the corporate memos again, here ya go:
www.fsround.org/hope_now/pdfs/February12-ProjectLifelineOverview.pdf
The reality is that the foreclosure problem is only
growing, and that this self-imposed measure by the banking companies is
just a stop gap on their part to buy some time. They are the last folks
who want your house. They couldn’t even keep their risk mitigation and
books straight, they fully well know they have no ability to sell a
house or do any other useful task, that’s why they’re bankers!
So many folks won’t ever get their affairs in order
due to systemic problems. This bandaid wont’ stop the bleeding, but will
buy some time before the infection sets in.
Of course, the government felt compelled to
continually make the situation worse. Not sure if you’ve had the
distinct pleasure of working with HUD, but the joy isn’t on my top 5,000
list. Sure, there are a few worse government agencies, I try to avoid
them also.
Man, not only does the plan bite, but the website
holds itself to even lower quality standards.
http://www.hopenow.com/
Never have I hoped for this foreclosure epidemic to
sweep the nation. Given the ridiculous stop-gap measures shown to
date; I’m just one of the few who have actually prepared for the
inevitability.
2.24.08 Bond Market Financing
in Never-Seen Freefall
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ac4g6JSjeG8A&refer=home
From the article: “386 auctions of publicly offered bonds resulted in
258 failures, or 67 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg…
Just 44 failures were recorded between 1984, when the market was
created, and the end of last year…”.
Between 1984 (assume June) and January 2008 there have been 282
months. In this period there have been 44 bond failures. This
equates to 0.15 per month.
However, there have been 258 bond financing failures in THE LAST TWO
WEEKS. This equates to 516 per month. This figure, in turn, means bond
financing failures are up 3440% this year.
Is that cool or what?!?! (not)
The Bond market affects us all, in ways you would
have never imagined…
2.22.08
Bought KRY
@ 1.61
2.20.08
Australian Miners and the US Press
Read a story about Newcrest
today, one of Australia's largest mining concerns. Australian
miners rarely receive positive press in the general financial outlets
here in the western US, when they receive any coverage at all. Do
believe NEM/ABX buy most the press and the advertisers/outlets bleeding
revenue just as soon would rather keep their largest accounts happy.
Took me a while, but I figured out Toyota motors bought much of their
favorable ratings the same way.
Mining reporting has absolutely gone down the toilet out here. Nevada
press lost her last dedicated mining reporter about six months ago to
the budget cuts. And this was in the largest mining county in the US.
2.19.08
The Next 'Terrorist' event in 'da Homeland
Here's my call: Backback bomb
on the El in Chicago, or Bart in SF, or the NYC subway. A good
shock wave against the commuters, driving more folks into their cars,
bad for the economy in a number of fashions. This week the train system
Amtrak - government run (such as it is) declares their security plan.
Either Amtrak is seven years late (they're usually only 1.5 hours late)
or they're just a bit early for the next terrorism ho-down.
The PERP: Women and men,
western educated, or at least fluent English-speakers. Trained for a
couple weeks in Pakistan or Afghanistan mini-camps. The training grounds
in Afghanistan are now more well funded than before the US entry. Our
goal - to get the opium production back up to pre-taliban levels - is
now complete. US forces have precious little control over ground..
Now that the situation has
been destabilized beyond control, time to de-stabilize Pakistan. What's
in store there will make Armenia in the 1920's look like a picnic.
2.19.08
Vallejo, California: On the brink of bankruptcy.
One of few cities in the
state of California to publically consider bankruptcy.
http://www.nbc11.com/news/15345539/detail.html
I live in Vallejo.
Bought a house and everything. (but I picked my timing and location
after careful consideration).
veerrrry interesting place,
to say the least. Best weather of any place I've ever been, with
the possible exception of the lee side of Molokai. This town is the
fourth or fifth oldest in California. Had its share of history. Home to
the oldest permanent naval base on the North American west coast.
It closed down in 1995, and you can see the effects still flowing
into the economy. The police force, ostensibly blamed for the
'funding shortfall', is actually the best in San Francisco Bay, IMO.
Was out good part of yesterday, looking at more houses - with the intent
of buying another in the not to far future. The house I bought last
October, as described here (foreclosure auction), will already cash flow
should I choose to rent it out. I actually just found out
yesterday that the back room I was worried about had 10K worth of work
done only two years ago - they replaced the floor and poured a new one
I found this out because I tracked down the contractor who did the work.
He did the work for Countywide. Two years ago Countrywide was
still putting money into houses they foreclosed. Now they wont put
a dime into their portfolio. In fact, Countrywide made this contractor
sign a waiver declaring he would not file a mechanics lien if he didn't
get paid for the job (how about that for a hint of things to come!). The
Contractor had never heard about it, so he went to his lawyer for
advice. Layer said sign, so the guy did. Yep, contractor had to wait
several months to get paid. This house had over 60k, EASY, put
into it in the last three years. I got it for 198k at the foreclosure
auction. Was originally listed in Oct 2005 at about 489K after four
realtors and two owners could not sell. The local realtor I worker
with (borker) the only one with brains I've run into around here had
been through the 1990-91, 80-82, and 73-75 downsides. He said this was
worst buy far and that this quarter would be the worst in the town's
history, down 8%.
Like I said, was out good
part of yesterday, looking at more houses - with the intent of buying
another in the not to far future. I plan being able to buy a house
for a bag of silver; now looking just like a matter of several months
away, maybe a couple years. After that I'll head back to Reno and begin
buying up there and farmland in a special spot.
Of course, plenty of folks
told me I was crazy buying property right now. Then again, when I
first appeared at Kitco in Feb 2000 I blabbed my head off and said it
was a great time to sell the Nazdaq and buy gold stocks. The kitco folks
that replied, every one of them, said I was early. These folks, as
I've found out in the last 8 years, are some of the better financial
minds (minds.period) I've had the pleasure to meet and converse.
Better early than late in some games.
Now remember, there have been plenty of towns in our fair country that
went out of business. Just not so extraordinarily so. Many places simply
unincorporate and drop the bag on the county. I've got a lot of
respect for the two council members actually willing to call it like it
is, city on the verge of bankruptcy due to decades of political fraud
and mismanagement. The public meeting on the bankruptcy proposal is this
Thursday. What should I say?
Oh, and here's the kicker:
Just two days ago I received a surprise letter in the mail from the
county. They unilaterally decided to LOWER my taxes by 10%. Go
figure...
This city IS on the LEADING
EDGE of something. Exactly what that something is remains to be seen.
Coming to a town near yours...
2.17.08
Take a Cruise, learn enough to make your money back in the markets:
http://www.investmentcruise.com/cruises/13thForbes07/main.asp?scode=010546
2.16.08
What Big Fun!
The banking holidays have
begun.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/02/16/ccbanks116.xml
First they start with those
who have enough money, and enough still at risk/able to lose, that they
won't make an issue in public.
Hey, at least the big banks
have a heart, right?
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/02/project_lifelin.html
Maybe we should show the big
banks some mercy....
...taxpayer bailout of the
banking industry, anybody?
2.16.08
Six dead in Illinois shooting because some loser says so
The usual outlets push the
gun control stories, already written and just waiting for the green
light opportunity.
Eight dead from a street drag
race:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080217/ap_on_re_us/drag_racing_deaths
What a time to talk about car
control, eh?
2.16.08
The People's Business
Wow, Congress sure has been
busy tackling some important issues that drive right to the heart of
your average American. First on the list is the congressional
investigation of steroids and "bloody sock" clemens before the august
halls of the capital dome. The congress people were angry, simply
infuriated, that they had right in front of them men that could tell
more lies per sentence than any elected paid-and-bought for -shill on
the committee. Not to be outdone, Senator Arlen Spectator promised to
mine right to the bottom of the 'spygate' dilemma so frustrating the
country. No, not the illegal immigrant serving as the bulk of CIA
information analysts. No, not the fools within military
intelligence who were outfoxed by al qaeda shepherds on sabbatical; As a
point in fact, Arlen strove to shine light on the abscessed sore over
American politics and culture that is or was, the new England Patriots
stealing of signs from opposing teams. Now THAT is getting down with the
peoples business (the asswipe must have lost badly on his last bet).
Of course the longer they waste their time means the less they are
wasting my money. Have at it boys. Personally, I'd subpoena the Venus
sisters and Sharipova to appear before my peering glaze. But that just
shows the inherent predilections of your elected officials. (btw, that
last men's Australian Open match was one of the best competitive games
I've ever seen).
2.15.08
Counterfeit goods more acceptable to US consumers
Har! Like they have a choice
anymore. How many of them can afford the real thing. For that matter,
how many viable manufacturing concerns are left in their country that
even produce some product resembling authenticity? Precious few.
The fact is that as the citizenry dumbed down into consumers, they
stopped demanding honest currency. Now they'll accept the most base,
crass, counterfeit product they can beg, borrow or...
2.14.08
Pentagon to Shoot Down Spy Satellite headed toward earth
Kinda makes
you wonder why they couldn’t shoot down a plane headed toward their own
building on 911.
Oh right, that wouldn't help
the cause for an unending war in the third world and wouldn't increase
their budget either. And besides, somebody gave orders to the USAF to
stand down rather than actually defend their country, as they had
pledged.
2.12.08
Whole lotta important 'news' this week, actually
Today's la-la story that the
market went up b.c. Berkshire-Hathaway offered 800 to shore up the bond
markets is more hooey. Over 7 trillion has been taken off the
books in the last 8 months. 800 million is just one percent. Also,
Buffet only offered for the crem-de-la-creme municipal and utility
bonds. Those almost always do well and rarely default anyway. The truer
story was that the market prices of the largest bond insurers tanked
again/still.
The main story about the
failing power complex in South Africa and how lack of power is taking
down the SA economy mentions nary a bit in the evening news. This is a
very big deal, and foreshadows coming events in the states. Large
sectors of the African Economy, especially the important mining sector,
are shutting down and losing productivity because the state-run power
corporation, ESKOM,
2.11.08
First changes in the Dow 30 in four years.
Altria and Honeywell were
removed and Chevron and Bank of America were put in the index. This
represents a nod by the DOW that industry is no longer representative of
the US economy, yet financial snookery and derivatives are the US
economy.
These changes are scheduled
for effect on February 19.
2.11.08
The Writer's Strike Apparently Ends
Well, the two sides came to
an agreement which needs a vote by the union. Way I see it, the
union took the short end. The main deal was a cut of the 'new media'
(internet) pie - how residuals are divvied up. They writers only
received 2%. Heck, they got 4% of VHS sales. Their purchase power has
halved in just one generation.
But ask yourself, truthfully.
Does it matter? In the last eight weeks, was it really that difficult to
find anything else to do with your life than watch some garbage
television show? Hopefully not. If so, I doubt you're reading this blog,
anyway.
2.9.08
Oh yes, chant after the masses:
President Hussein!
Sure, it's great to watch
hillary unravel just as fast as britney, she gets her deserved
comeuppance. They had the brand name recognition, and now realize nobody
really likes their name. Glad they'll get their legacy shoved in front
of their face while they are both alive to relish the realization.
But the cult of personality
over this unknown loser - obama - will usher in a very painful chapter
in america's brief history. The guy is a trojan horse. The poor plebes
beg for a dictator.
Hope is a dangerous drug and
this pushers has been dealing out overdose-level prescriptions on the
trail of fears.
Either way, this election
will have either the firs (and last) black man or women in the white
house. One term served (at most). The Bush klan will be back in by 2012.
2.8.08
Increasing demand for domestic and international antiques and
collectibles
Sotheby's and Christie's
expect 2008 sales to increase 20% over 2007 figures, based upon their
large London auctions this February.
In sum this represents almost
an 80 percent increase over 2006. TIAS reports online business is
up 19 percent over December 2006. However, they report as volume;
we suspect pinched margins haven't resulted in the same increase of
profit.
2.6.08
Houses Cheaper than Cars in Detroit
And neither are selling very
well.
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN1927997820070319?src=031907_16_TOPSTORY_houses_cheaper_than_cars_in_detroit&pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
The auction company mentioned
in this article is holding a large auction of homes in Northern and
Southern California next week. Will be a great indicator on the
current market IMO.
2.6.08
The Dow Jones is Down 500 points in Three Days (most of the fall on
election day)
Some fools chalk it up to any
number of inane reasons. The reality the market looks ahead, sees the
current crop of politicians, and doesn't like what it sees.
2.6.08
Massive Vote Fraud
Sure I voted. Every chance I
get. Someone has to vote against all the garbage bonds saddling our
children and their children with increasing piles of unsustainable debt.
Supposedly the polls in California were wrong again. Numbers had shows
Romney and Obama ahead by a few percentage points. Of course the results
come in and once again they were way out of whack with the
previous polling indications. Either the pollsters have suddenly lost
any semblance of ability in 2008, or the fraud is getting even worse.
Just when you thought the hanging chad fiasco in Florida and the vote
fraud in Ohio in 2004 (where Kerry was paid-off/blackmailed/threatened
to not fight for his obvious victory in that state) could not get any
worse - watch out for the great 2008 swindle.
Seriously, do you or anybody
you know actually support McCain and Hillary? Obama has pulled
absolutely huge crowds over the past couple months. I've seen probably a
total of four signs AND bumper stickers for McCain. Who exactly
checked his name down, weren't the people in Northern California.
I would suppose he has a pocket of die-hard supporters in military towns
perhaps, such as outside the Navy and Marine bases down south.
Then again, Ron Paul has constantly polled much more popular with
military families, for the obvious reason that he actually supports the
troops. Moreover, my parents-in-law, who are diehard NeoCons,
never mentioned any love for McMaim when I was down there just a couple
weeks ago.
McCain has a number of
veterans gunning for him; the guy is a confirmed charade and cheat.
"Remember the Keating Five" - the Savings and Loan Debacle in the
1980's? Yep, McCain was one of the five. Guess the powers
that be need him in office to engineer the next and largest financial
fraud every parlayed against the people of a nation. YOU are the target.
And although I've found few
folks that even understand what a delegate is, nobody has been able to
explain to me how a 'superdelegate' and your vote can co-exist.
Oh well. Whatever the
delegate system can't fix before the real election DieBiold, Inc. will
be sure to fix after the election.
2.4.08
Kissing Kousins
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia
held hands with president bush on a friendly stroll through the gardens
in Crawford, Texas. How come the Premier of Canada never had the
same date, they have oil too!
2.3.08
San Jose Coin Show
The San Jose Coin Club put on
another great show. Personally, I don't like the location or the
room near as much, especially the fact I now have to pay parking.
Otherwise, the show was fairly similar to previous years. Had a few good
buys on Nevada Tokens and one piece of great Rhyolite ephemeral - a real
beauty. Was good to run into a few old connections, especially
Vince Peraino (a great guy, taught me a lot). Was even better to hit it
off with Salvatore Falcone, another fine paisano. A few of the dealers
complained about the spike in the price of gold recently. Then
again they always have something to complain about. Frankly, I didn't
think the traffic was very heavy, similar to last year but not nearly as
crowded as 04 and 05. Still, most vendors reported having a good
show.
2.2.08
Tent Cities Starting to Pop-up In Our Prosperous Land
http://www.newswithviews.com/Devvy/kidd338.htm
(Scroll toward the bottom of
the blog)
This one is even better:
http://www.godtube.com/view_video.php?viewkey=efae496f9fdbef111ab0
2.1.08
San Jose Coin Show Tomorrow
44 TULLY Road, San Jose, CA,
95111
2.1.08
Amazing really, how well the Gold Stocks have been holding up
Whilst the larger markets
have entered a downtrend. Remember that Nevada bill, now out of
house and into the Senate (conference?) that will completely re-do the
way mining royalties are collected and paid in Nevada, the largest
mining state in the union. Alaska, the state with historically very
favorable mining regulations has also increased royalty payments (read:
taxes).
2.1.08
My trade out of KGC into MRB
(from 1.24.08) So far, so
good...
2.1.08
Google Takes the Hit
Stock down overnight and over
another 8% today (on increasing volume).
Down over 20% in a few weeks.
Chart looks atrocious- simple, log, comparative or otherwise.
Folks begin to realize that
Google's economic model has two forks: The first is to monetize traffic
at social networking sites. Of course, the majority of folks visiting
those sites are basically lonely and/or wasting time while at work.
Neither of these predilections typically convert into commercial or
retail sales of mutual funds, televisions, cars or anything else.
``There is no evidence to
date of an economic slowdown,'' Google Chief Executive Officer Eric
Schmidt said in an interview yesterday.
Like I wrote on January 7th,
there is no evidence of economic slowdown because all the metrics used
to measure slow-down have been so cooked and booked that the official
numbers are essentially useless drivel. The CPI, GDP or whatever metric
that was originally formulate dot represent some measure of economic
activity is now nothing more than some pedantic predilection of
otherwise unemployable government double-speakers.
2.1.08
Yahoo Woes
Two months ago they released
they're 'new and improved' email browser. The new email interface
sucks, barely works. Likewise, they tweaked their business model
until it no longer works, and the larger - more liquid - company [MSFT]
buys the remains at a garage sale. Of course MSFT is now too just a
shell of its former self. A monopoly replaced the engine of
innovation which produced years of organic growth. The monopoly
model has now started to morph, as is invariably/inevitably/always the
case, from market monopoly into simple ward of the state - dependent
upon installation into the ever growing number of government worker
cubes. The rest of the world is abandoning the product - that which
still works. The bombs, Vista et. al. (not to mention the junk that
never made it past beta tests) show that ever increasing reliance on
government 'business' must continue, since the open market no longer
cares for the 'product'.
The larger irony is that many
of the best and brightest computer and electrical engineers that I went
to school with in the 1990's moved away from the MSFT behemoth into the
more comforting arms of the hip and growing AAPL and GOOG.
Naturally, both those
companies are now poised on the precipice, staring over the edge into an
abyss that spells years of decline. The kids are just now learning the
maxim that old age and treachery (MSFT) bests out youth and ability
(AAPL and GOOG) every time.
The fun part, naturally, is
playing the arbitrage between youth/ability and age/treachery. One
of the few niches not yet crowded out and into a population awaiting
collapse. And speaking of populations awaiting collapse...
2.1.08
Consumer Confidence Numbers
The Consumer Confidence
Numbers released this week by the Conference Board - a measure of US
consumer confidence - fell from 90.6 in December to 87.9 in January.
Short term, what this means is, exactly: nothing. Longer term, we
get a different picture. The economic numbers have been so
massaged into nothingness that they are no longer relevant in either the
short term or medium term. However, a population that no longer believes
the numbers, no longer believes the government. The rigged statistics
fool some of the folks, but - increasingly - not all the folks
(especially the younger ones). More accurately, very few people believe
- deep down - in the chicanery but they absolutely cannot face the
underlying reality that they are completely dependent upon the
government subsides and handouts to feed themselves (to the point
of obesity) and clothe themselves (cheap crap made in china) in the
manner they so deserve.
Again, read the tripe pushed
by just another bought and paid for economic trollop:
``There is no evidence to
date of an economic slowdown,'' Google Chief Executive Officer -
Eric Schmidt
Another freefall in the
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index paints the more accurate
picture, once the folks on the street see and thus believe - the local
economy is weak and getting worse.
Repeat, with vigor: `There is
no evidence to date of an economic slowdown''
There are those, however,
with differing opinions. For example,
As Chad Dreier, the Ryland
(Housing company) CEO stated in November: "The California housing market
is in a freefall".
Last week, Dreier noted that
housing prices were still "very high" in both Northern and Southern
California. This was the bad news, along with the pesky fact he
announced his firm lost over $330 million last year. The good new is, he
can build -and sell - homes for much less than what the average joe and
jane California can realize for their home. In other words, future asset
depreciation.
How long will joe and jane
put up with that?
What does Chalmers Johnson
have to say?
Johnson, author of the
Blowback Trilogy and including 'Nemesis: The Last Days of the American
Republic' states:
"The United States
will within a very short time face financial or even political
collapse.”
Harpers Magazine -
January 2007
Calente goes even further:
“In 2008, Americans will
wake up to the worst economic times that anyone alive has ever seen...
...failing banks, busted
brokerages, toppled corporate giants, bankrupt cities, states in
default, foreign creditors cashing out of US securities…the stage is
set, the big one is on its way.”
Gerald Calente, Trends Reports; 12.17.08
The US financial watchdog had
rung the bell last year as Comptroller general David Walker with the US
Accountability Office specifically warned congress that US policy and
resultant debt levels was unsustainable. His warning wasn't too
long after President George Bush publicly ridiculed the expected future
value of US Treasury Bills.
Of course the majority of
people are still asleep, the portion of our populace that are now
realizing the pinch have only just begun catching on. How can this
same group, who are still willing to consider either McCain OR Hillary
for president, truly allow the veil to lift over their eyes. 'Twas just
a scant five years ago when almost half of these same us consumers
believed the 935 documented lies their President Bush spewed from the
podium, including the 'fact' that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.
Too bad too few noticed the
one bit of truth bush threw in to the milieu - the US debt was truly
laughable.
Cliff Droke had been warning
from the bleachers:
"Consumers are way too
optimistic over the economic prospects of the next 12-18 months
ahead and have shown this optimism by buying second homes, buying
extravagant luxury items, and in other ways when they may well come
to regret these investment decisions in the months ahead."
-
Cliff Droke, Gold Digest; March 26, 2005
In the end, the folks in
Florida only gave Ron Paul a few percentage points of the vote because
the majority are completely tied to the system of paper promises.
However, the younger folks are increasingly waking up and looking into
the future - their future -with a greater even horizon. This is the
growing group now starting to understand, verily, APPRECIATE the message
Ron Paul is bringing out into the open.
Ultimately, you need to get
out of the station and onto the train. Choose the train wisely -
we aren't all destined for the same route.
Like everything else,
consumer confidence comes down to not what you believe, not who you
believe to tell it, but how confident you are about the ability to make
decisions of your own accord.
Most would rather let the
authorities make the decision for them.
One picture says it all, the
People's Republic lead the way: The new paradigm of confident
consumer: Staged, Controlled, Captive and completely at the mercy of the
'authorities'.
[January 31.2008: Thousands
of Chinese stuck - huddled - massed like cattle - in a railway station.
Not moving, nowhere to move forward nor room to regress backward.
Pressed against each other simply becasue the system can no longer
function. Apparently due to a 'snowstorm'.]
1.28.08
My old next-door neighbor makes the cut:
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080127/LIV/801270308/1089/LIV
Haven't seen her since I
moved away; she must have been 7 or 8 years old at the time.
WOW, maybe I should've stuck
around another decade and change.
(Or, at least visited the 'ol
hood a little more often)
1.28.08
Goldman Sachs buying their first casino
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080125/BIZ04/801250504/1071
like they don't have a big
enough cut of the action as it is...
I figure GS, benefiting from
their man the Treasury Secretary who has obviously been passing inside
information this whole time, has simply declared victory over their
previous sparring mates: Merill Lynch, Bear Stearns, et. al. who've had
their lunch money stolen before the first recess. Since GS has nobody
left to play with in the dirty money game in NYC anymore, now they've
put some marbles into Vegas. Just another great venue to legitimately
launder some money stolen fair and square form the poor fools strolling
the strip hoping for a fair deal, or at least a million-to-ones shot.
After GS trumps the vanilla bread executives running the corporate
casinos (the glory days of our lovely mob have faded), GS packs up the
show, takes it on the road, and starts to compete with the chinese
gangsters/pols in Macao via a friendly tete-a-tete. Give it 4 or 5 years
IMO.
1.24.08
Traded out of KGC and back into MRB today.
1.21.08
A Parade Just Passed by Near my House
Everybody was hooting and
hollering and walking and driving an honking for the MLK legacy.
None of them waved any banner nor waved any flag for the engulfing bear
market in all financial markets.
Perhaps the currently failing
derivative markets across the world shows that global reality trumps the
local cult of personality?
Nah...
Just a crying shame the
public will wave the banner on the prescribed date and time for the
mythological caricature of a man and his ideals yet won't spend the time
to read the fine (6 point font) print at the bottom of their mortgage
document to know what's really going on in their own financial house;
much less the larger world out there. Oh well, got some cheap beads and
candy from the spectacle. Apparently the much vaunted promise
Breads and Circus has been down-graded as well. They get the politician
they deserve.
1.20.08
Opening the Mail
- Countrywide offered me a
home equity line of credit. Thing is, they offered $10k less than
last month. Not sure if they think my position has deteriorate or
theirs has? Even less sure why they would continue to offer loans
on this secured collateral when they have already determined that the
market value of such is decreasing. Too bad for them it took
between October 2005 and January 2008 to realize the property value was
in decline. They held the house from October 05 - I bought it from
them just recently after they loss over 150K.
Perhaps their
'new-and-improved' business model?
- BOL and Warburg Pincus
agreed to a price on the class action suit. Just more garden variety
fraud typically associated with mergers and acquisitions. Pure
gravy for me. The class settlement suit dates covered just a fifteen
month period. I was only in as a swing trader during that time. In
and out with a profit. The fraud pays as a dividend, more or less. You
can always count of the fraud part, just cant' always expect to be on
the 'right' part of the 'fraud' trade'. Though it does seem to get
easier with experience.
6.11.07 Sold BOL @$
69.70
bought around 48 last year.
Bausch and Lomb = bread and butter.
Crazy chart! Look at those
islands (tops?)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=bol
- MRB receives Feasibility
Study.
Really hard to get a picture
on the market's take here. How much impact in price is from the results
vs. how much results from the overall market carnage?
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080121/0350751.html
Sure, I can get in cheaper
here, but can I get in REALLY cheaper next week? The Shadow used
to know. Now nobody does. Not that its a bad thing, mind you.
1.11.08 Sold MRB @
5.58
>9.28.05
Bought MRB @ 1.46
That was the core position. hoping to
average back in a little cheaper.
1.19.08
Can't believe Ron Paul polled 14% in Nv.
When I waived his flag in '88
(I actually canvassed northern Nv. door to door) we could only convince
in 2.5% of the electorate. Not sure what it means. Sure, the
candidates are 500% worse - believe it or not - but either folks are
waking up or the election process has devolved into such a parody that
now money and hacking the results are on even par footing.
We stood a chance had 15% of
the folks believed in the cause 20 years ago.
But at this point in the
game...
At any rate the fact that the
young educated folks are running and funding and supporting the RP
campaign provides great hope.
Ron's message is getting out
there and serves in great juxtaposition versus the other crap just
recently vomited through the publicly (previously) held airwaves.
When you first heard RP was going to run again for president; how did
you think Ron's campaign would be faring at this juncture?
I see it MUCH more successful than my initial estimation on the state of
our union provided...
Sometimes nice to be wrong.
1.14.08
Partook of
some kangaroo at the BBQ joint in 29 Palms
Nice place to chow.
The cut was sirloin and the meat looked, felt and tasted like steak-
just a little bit gamier. Really good, actually. The menu also had
crocodile but I didn’t’ try any. Thought I would hold out until I
make it to
Florida
again.
1.12.08
Driving from Palm Springs through the Inland Empire
One sees large signs
sponsoring 'auctions' for the thousands of homes functioning as 'excess
inventory' (read: dead money = gross misallocation of resources).
Most haven't yet figured out the real auctions versus the typically huck
and jive marketing ploy. They will. Only a generation ago the midwest
pawned off the family farm for the MO/CON/ADM megaplex. Same
chapter, different verse.
Yucca Valley is still
developing. The town actually had two storefronts advertising
coins. One was closed, the other a waste of time. Good luck out there.
And another piece of advice: Stay out of Desert Hot Springs - the town.
1.12.08
Status of The Little People's Street Economy: The Mall
Palm Springs mall: Dead. Has
about %40 vacancy rates. Haven't seen a commercial indoor mall with that
type of vacancy since I visited the Whittier (LA basin) mall in early
2000. They later bulldozed that mall and put up an outside strip
mall. The newer strip mall is doing fine since the Whittier
demographics have actually remained rather favorable. The generation
raised there when homes were built in the early 1950's have also raised
their progeny in the same locale. Most the institutions developed
50 years ago still function.
In Reno, Nv they bulldozed
and paved the covered mall - first one in town, originally opened as an
outdoor trip mall in very late 1969. I watched the place
deteriorate all through the 1980s. The developer has not
publically stated their intention for the property. Likely their default
plan is too let it remain a useless plot of asphalt until they
eventually give up on obtaining commercial credit in today's market and
default themselves. At one point the architectural wonder and
previous financial hub called the Mapes Casino rose above the skyscape
shining light across the scene and spilling people out along the
waterfront. Now the spot houses barren splotches of grass and
cement except for three months of the year when a skating rink pops up
from the ashes like the frozen phoenix archetype. Instead of
preserving and redeveloping the city core, the local powers that be
overdeveloped the desert. now large tracts of increasingly
bankrupt/empty boxes formerly known as homes provide entertainment for
those more interested in watching the lawns dry, brown and eventually
blow away rather than catching a show downtown.
Heck, why pay for dinner and
a show downtown when you can watch the locals tear out the copper,
fixtures and plumbing in the abandoned house across the street. Now
THAT'S entertainment!
1.12.08
California
Indian Casinos
After ditching the ditch known as Palm Springs I drove out about 20
minutes west on I-10 to the Morongo Valley casino. Had hoped to
catch the playoff football game on SUPERSIZE BLUE RAY PLASMA TVs. Alas,
they didn’t have any, just a few large TVs at the bar. So, caught
some action on the craps table. They call it diceless craps. They use
two 20 deck shoes (aces through sixes) instead of dice. The boxman draws
one card each from the shoe to replicate a die throw. Although I
actually won about 50$, I am not impressed with the dieless game. Likely
rigged. What really bothered me was that the payoffs on the proposition
bets were way off. They shorted payoffs on the field and on the
horn. No reason to ever go there again. I did keep a couple
souvenir chips. Good luck to them. Thankfully there lies a pool of
increasingly financially desperate and despondent suckers in the LA
basin just 1.5 hours away (or less in the vaunted 'inland empire') who
need to blow their wad immediately rather than wait another 3 hours
until they hit the Nevada state line. At one point believed I read that
dice game were not legal in California, Indian Casino or not. That
has changed, since the Pala Tribe's casino outside Fallbrook (San Diego
County) has two dice craps tables - with the standard odds/payoffs.
I used to think the average american sucker
had better odds on Wall Street. No longer the case...
1.11.08
Museum of American Finance Reopens Today On Wall Street.
This Smithsonian Institution
affiliate reopens for public visitation at 48 Wall Street, NY NY.
1.11.08
Given the Free Fall in the Financial, Equity, and Derivative Markets
The mid-level government
operatives are stirring the Hormuz for maximum coverage. Bush in Israel
to oversee Mossad operations (such as the faked 'Iranian ship' footage).
Obviously they are long oil
at $200/barrel in the futures market...
1.11.08
Sold MRB @ 5.58
>9.28.05 Bought MRB @ 1.46
That was the core position.
hoping to average back in a little cheaper.
1.8.08
Just sent off an email to my Uncle
Plan on visiting him next
week.
He has stage 4 liver cancer,
now in Chemo. Diagnosed just a few weeks ago. Doctors give him a
few months to live.
Going to visit my aunt too,
other side of the family. Matriarch. Just out of the
hospital. Not doing well. Could be the last visit with her, also.
Had a great conversation with
her a few weeks ago, she was very lucid. We chatted for quite some time.
She was very grateful I made the call. In retrospect so am I.
Previously I had given her a
writing tablet. She never took to it. After that I got wise and
brought down a tape recorder. She would go for that and talk at
length about the olden days. Suggested I bring down a video
recorder. Said I would, someday. Though just recently acquired one and
its now too late. Someday got canceled.
Write down your story now.
Better to live on in the
blog/web/journal/scribbled piece of parchment...then to wither with the
vine.
Everyone here has something
to share for those who don't find the fortune to read today's posts.
Your current progeny may show no interest, but their kids just
might!
I've talked to thousands of
folks; asked them about their history. Vast majority have trouble
going back 100 years on their family tree with any breadth of context,
detail and meaning on one side alone, much less both sides of families.
For those that never had the
inclination to understand their background, the road that got them here;
what's the odds they'll successfully endeavor to understand their
current place in today's system of pulleys and levers, grinding the
clueless one turn over another?
Not bloody likely = Cannon
Fodder.
1.8.08
Interesting thing about change in market sentiment
Mutual Fund managers have
historically not been allowed/refrained from shorting shares.
Now they can BUY ETFs, which
are short (or double short) the market.
Whereas volatile moves in a
market may have marked a turning point in traders legend of yore,
today it could simply be an
artifact of trading mechanisms.
1.7.07
Read that in Ireland during the 1980's gold mining
They had to drill the entire
lode. Explosives not allowed!
1.7.08
They'll Always told you that a Rising Tide Lifts all Boats
Yet seldom mention that the
over-pumped aquifer dries all wells...
Unless you delve deep down
through the aquicludes of disinformation, acquiescence and paralysis.
1.7.08 '
Recession'
Ain't gonna happen.
Now, the whole mess could gravitate down the sewer but it still won't be
a 'recession'. The keepers and runners union of the official
government numbers racket will cook the books so that there are not two
quarters in a row with shrinking output. Just as the number keepers fool
with the CPI inputs, the unemployment figures, the jobs reports, ad
nauseum. And if the number cookers fail their jobs, well then the
doublespeak ministry will just have to work that much harder to abuse
and confuse the language so that 'recession' is rescinded from the
vernacular.
1.6.08
The Storm that Caused the Levee to Break in Fernley, Nv
Same spot where it burst in
1996.
They don't build 'em (or
repair) like they used to. And Ca and NV have a whole mess 'o
levies protecting/allowing the agricultural infrastructure to flourish
in the desert.
1.5.08
Whole Lotta Folks saying Inflation will get worse
That'll be the least of our
worries. The resulting nasty deflation spooks everybody. The
governments have always enjoyed inflation. They can print their way
through promises and out of trouble. Problems with deflation
cannot be papered over. Once it sets in, you can't deflate your way out.
The REAL bummer: No new
business can establish itself except at the expense of an existing
business.
Hence, capital flow dries up
and entrepreneurship goes wanting for lack of credit.
There are many places on this
planet that were once much more crowded than they are today. Entire
cities now nothing more than ruins. In some cases the environment was
the larger factor. In some cases, just simple economics and
demographics. Once deflation reaches a certain nadir, the prime is lost
and no amount of pumping the well brings water back to the spigot.
Folks see too many holes in
the plan, too much salt in the field, and simply walk away to greener
pastures.
1.3.08 A
few tidbits from the love-letter ETrade sent today:
The Katrina Emergency Tax Relief Act of 2005 & Gulf Opportunity Zone
Act of 2005 provides qualified IRA holders affected by Hurricanes
Katrina, Rita, or Wilma certain favorable tax treatments on
distributions from their IRAs.
The Pension Protection Act of 2006 presents non-spouse
beneficiaries of qualified retirement plans an opportunity to roll over
assets to an inherited (beneficiary) IRA, allows for tax free charitable
distributions for 2007, and provides an early distribution penalty
exception for qualified reservists.
The Economic Growth and Tax Relief and Reconciliation Act
provides that plan participants with designated Roth contributions in a
401(k) or 403(b) plan may be eligible to roll over these assets to Roth
IRAs after terminating employment or under other special circumstances.
The Tax Increase Prevention and Reconciliation Act eliminates the
modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) restriction in 2010 (currently
$100,000) for Roth IRA conversion eligibility.
The Tax Relief and Health Care Act of 2006 allows IRA holders to
make a one-time direct rollover to an HSA.
1.1.08 A
Billion to One: Federal Reserve Notes against You
A small sampler plate of the
databases built on US (us) dupes.
(at least that 0.0004% they
chose to publish so far)
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/RL31798.pdf
If the databases weren't
built by govt. contractors on govt. specs. with govt oversight, I might
get a little worried.
1.1.08
Year Eight of This Blog Now Commences!
12.31.07
Closing Price of Gold for 2007
$833.30; up %31 for the year!
Nasdaq composite rose 9.8
percent
S&P 500 up %3.5 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average
rose %6.4
12.30.07
Land...Gold...Timing
Today folks are getting
swindled out of their cash, bonds and houses. 100 years ago it was
mining and oil scams (and still is today). Some things don't
change much.
"Poor Women Left
Penniless"
What a great read:
"How investors were
baited"
http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?_r=1&res=9A05E2DF1638E333A25750C2A9679D946196D6CF&oref=slogin
"John Emerson, a
bricklayer...had put $2,000 of hard-earned money in the Burr's Nevada
Mining Stock. On one of the shares of mining stock was a picture
of Gov. Sparks of Nevada, as President of the company. Emerson
said he wrote to the Governor, and in a short time received a letter,
apparently from Governor Sparks, saying the stock was all right.
Subsequently, Emerson declared, he learned that the Governor was dead at
the time."
"Money kept pouring in"
Here is a picture of the
stock in question - Goldfield Mining Milling and Smelting Company:
http://cgi.ebay.com/1907-NEVADA-GOLDFIELD-MINING-MILLING-SMELTING-STOCK_W0QQitemZ230206393031QQihZ013QQcategoryZ3449QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
No pictures of the governor,
maybe his vignette was added in later shelf offerings.
And 'they' said Dead Men
Don't Lie.
Well, at least not near as
much as the current Governor.
12.30.07 More
Land...Gold...Timing
Is it time right now to trade physical au/ag for
foodstuffs?
Or, trade physical au/ag for land?
But the 64,000,000K (inflation) question is this:
Should we calculate land for income potential or
land calculated as means of production?
A very salient question at this juncture IMO.
12.28.07
2008 Trends in Equity Dealer Markets
Same as the old trends: Less
market transparency every year
Financial Industry Regulatory
Authority eliminates another disclosure rule:
http://www.finra.org/web/groups/rules_regs/documents/notice_to_members/p037670.pdf
12.27.07
Found Another Northern Nevada Casino that will Pay Silver
Clarion, S. Reno, S. Virginia
Street. They'll pay out numismatic coin, GSA Carson City Dollars,
etc., for certain Keno jackpots. Of course, I don't play keno.
While, in the neighborhood,
visited the Peppermills' $400 Million upgrade/new hotel tower.
Looks nice, I'm sure they'll get their investment back. They've
continued with the Tuscany theme, started with their makeover tow years
ago. The outside part of the casino remodeled two years ago was
done really poorly, looks like the exterior of a warehouse. The new wing
has the exterior appearing in the Tuscany mold. So, I imagine the 'mill
will next remodel the outside of the older ware-house-looking area to
match the newest addition.
Further on down the street in
the same general neighborhood, Station Casino will enter the market by
building a brand new casino; first major new development in Northern
Nevada since the silver legacy in 1995. I think they'll do well.
Station (STN) had out-performed in the last few years. And I've traded
them well, as shown on this here blog...
btw, the owners of the
peppermill bet big on Wendover NV in 2002, bought out two bankrupt
properties and injected cash in their own properties. They've done
we'll, expect it to continue.
Vegas has been losing market share to Asia for
about three years now. Look at Wynn's et. al. investments in china
autonomous areas.
Right now STN business plan with new property in N.
Nevada is to capture the locals market. same MO as Pepermill plan in
Wendover [capture all the new population moving to SLC who are not
Mormon (or jack) and will travel 2hrs to drink and gamble and dabble in
other adult pre-occupations.]
12.18.07
So the President of OlLIGARCHY NAU, INC.
(Formerly the Republic of the
united states of America)
Decided (or was told) the
need to abuse the microphone and the English language and spin some more
disinformation. A few things he forgot to mention:
- The FEDERAL RESERVE has
been forced to pump 500Billion USD monopoly debt into the banking system
to keep major US banking concerns firm collapsing. This is on top
of major infusions from nations holding our debt such as China, Abu
Dhabi, and Saudi Arabia. Not pretty.
- ACA Financial Guaranty
Corporation, one of the largest Bond Insurers in the US had their credit
rating severely downgraded this week. Hence, major cutnerparties such as
Meril Lynch and Bear Stearsn are propping up ASA. Amongst that
poor environment, these backers are crumbling apart:
- Bear Stearns Announces
their first quarterly loss EVER
That's right, since the beginning of the company in the 1920's they've
never lost money. All through the great depression, the 1950's market
crash, the1973-1974 market correction, the 1980's inflation they always
turned a dime.
Until now.
- MBI, the country's largest
bond insurer: Down @ -25% today alone.
- The Lakota renounce 150
years of negotiations with the US.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iVC1KMTOgwiSoMQyT2LwZc9HyAgA
(and you think the government
will keep its promises to you?)
12.17.07
Ben Stein now Recommends 10% portfolio in Gold
He had been bearish and wrong
for some time; now just changing his tune. When he recommends the
percentage go up to 20% I'll take that as a major sell signal.
12.14.07
Poor day IN the Markets
What a doozey of a day.
Lost on pretty near everything except the dollar; and that still won't
buy a cup of coffee most places.
Except from my friends at starbucks. Norma cup of joe l is 1.60 but a
'refill' is only 0.50. and since I bring my own cup, another 10 cents
[what a cup actually used to cost just a few decades ago] taken off of
that. so i pay 0.40. In other words, when they pay me full price
they don't get a tip. When they charge what they could, 0.4, they make
more than corporate [0.6]. don't matter to me, I hold the stock to hedge
my daily trades/tirades...
12.14.07
Minnesota Bans Mercury in Cosmetics
(gettin' under your skin),
Most folks don’t even realize
it was added; or have any idea of what’s in that junk.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071214/ap_on_he_me/mercury_in_mascara
In the US products used at the workplace are required to have both a
label and Material Safety Data Sheets available. Cosmetics are exempt
(covered by an even worse law).
Then again, fecal material is regularly added to crops.
'nightsoil'
Anybody working on that little issue?
12.14.07
Bond Market on Steroids
As in baseball, the trust and
honor are gone but the spectacle continues to draw crowds functioning as
the circumsizus maximsus- biggest fraud show on earth.
The carnies bark bon-mots to the crowds passing by, looking for the next
entertainment vehicle, unsuspecting all the while that THEY are the
entertainment, the rube, the financial backers.
The money man and the promoter are trading little worthless scrip
tickets fast as they can for the real money – gold- with an eye on the
train leaving the station for the next stop down the line.
“Saint Louis, Chicago, Denver, Washo, Spokane, main street, living room
computer holding the 401K - ALL ABOARD”
12.14.07
Every Wonder what was the oldest Stock Exchange in the Western US?
No, me neither. But the
answer is Washoe City, Nv.
Here were some guesses:
Carson City
Good One - Only off by 10
miles!
(though they didn't have a bourse, unless you count the capital or craps
tables down the street)
I have a sell order on paper, dated 1879, from Genoa Nv (the oldest
whitey town, even closer to Washoe City) to a brokerage in Carson.
People mistakenly believe that innovation and production begins in
cities. Nope, usually the good idea is hatched and incubated and borne
in the mountain town. Then the city slicker kidnaps the kid, brings it
to the city, sticks in the chip/slaps on the barcode and markets said
product as original. “The San Francisco Treat”.
This guy sums it up:
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0030-8684(199708)66%3A3%3C337%3ATCUN%3E2.0.CO%3B2-9
West of the Continental Divide is background noise designed to confuse.
BOS was just educating us on that ruse, the tricklings of a
test-designer, the other night. Too bad folks would rather focus on the
banal and perceived slights rather than spend the time trying to really
understand what somebody else made the effort to communicate, no matter
how poor or corse.
The Washoe Exchange was actually the first exchange west of Missouri
(not Chicago as many other mistakenly propose).
So,
Denver isn’t a very good guess. Think of when the Cripple Creek District
hit, pretty late in the game (between Yukon and Tonopah/Goldfield
strikes).
Somewhere in Alaska, like Sitka, would have been a good guess; service
the Yukon strike in late 1896 (which bailed out the ‘panic of 1896’).
Couer de alene would’ve been another good guess.
The Willie Nelson exchange, not a good guess.
He hangs out in Pa’ia, Maui. Shows off his biodiesel bus, plays a few
tunes in town, an occasional dinner at Mama’s two miles outside town.
If you were a small player trading on the Washo Exchange, you were
either wiped out during the consolidation in 1862 or the nasty
depression of 1864.
Of course, from the viewpoint of an Easterner with money, as summed up
by Harpers in 1865, the entire territory was one large and wooly bourse:
“From October, 1862, until March, 1864, speculation ran riot, and the
Territory of Nevada was converted into one vast swindling stock
exchange."
St. Louis is actually a Very
Good guess (1836, more or less),
Washo bourse
Although the exchange was
formerly established in Virginia City in 1862, stocks were bought and
sold out of a private residence, and possibly a mercantile store, in
Washoe City in 1860.
Remember, that the City of San Francisco was a sleepy little port/army
post at the time - still mostly scrub dune. (The Navy was in Vallejo).
The Presidio of San Francisco (army) was growing, thanks to an infusion
of northern scrip as a result of the civil war in an effort to maintain
California firmly in allegiance to the federales.
This money was building brick structures on the Presidio (the largest
one, the mortar Fort Point was obsolete by the time it was completed, as
is the case with most federal projects). Soldiers then spent their pay
in the Market District after walking down lovers lane between the
Presidio and the Market District.
The city of SF wouldn't really catch a bid until the eastern financiers
made a money on the Comstock and then moved to SF. Virginia silver built
SF and their stock exchange. When the city quaked/burned in 06, it was
near its peak. Actual peak was the city rebuilding itself in time for
the PanPac Expo. City has been in decline ever since, getting much worse
lately.
This pikers at financialhistory.org missed at least two mining exchanges
that existed before S.F.
Just one more reason on top the high pile of BS to doubt the wanna-be
official holders of financial history.
One reason I’ve become enamored with collecting ephemera. Back up the
facts with missives written by individuals who signed their name and
date on a piece of paper.
The miners on the Sierra Placer in California were still too honest,
trying to make a living, actually coining gold. Way to industrious to
start an exchange for paper pictures. The first western exchange needed
con artist eastern banker money. Things haven’t changed much on that
front.
Oldest Stock Exchange in
the Western US: Washoe Stock Exchange:
Washoe City, Nevada in 1860 (formalized at Virginia City in 1862)
Washoe City - Washoe County - Washo Indian Tribe.
(washoe bar)
By early 1900 Washoe City
was already a ghost town.
Check it out. Nice pic:
http://cgi.ebay.com/c1900-1910-Orig-Photo-Washoe-City-Looking-South-Nevada_W0QQitemZ110203745401QQihZ001QQcategoryZ14279QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
Driving down Highway 395 today you can still see part of one wall
standing from this original building.
The post office was only open (per memory since I cannot locate my Nv
postal history book right now) between 1859 and 1874).
Last night two pieces of ephemera, canceled letters with the Washoe City
cancel, sold for 70$. And these were damaged (stamps torn off).
Some of us, such as myself, collect canceled letters from each former
post office in the state. Washoe City is one of the harder ones to find
a nice sample.
There are several times I have seen or held a piece of ephemera,
scripophily, or exonumia that reference – tangibly- exchange of goods or
services from some firm, partner, bar, or company that doesn’t exist in
the history books or on the web. Truly amazing how little finance and
trade from just 130 years ago has failed to make history. And of that
surviving on some web page, or in some book, how little is accurate when
compared to the actual tangible remnants of such trade. Not too mention
how much information has purposely been changed to influence the minds
(sic) of today.
Washoe City was built in the middle of a Beautiful Valley, plenty of
water, plenty of forage, good alfalfa, easy railroad territory. But,
Virginia City was the most exciting place in the US for five years, so
the town withered. Very difficult to live in VC. Cold, steep, little
sun, access is difficult, no water, only junipers.
Great place to visit though!
Funny thing is, Washoe County right now (well, until 18 months ago) was
in the middle of one of the best land speculation runs anywhere since
the 1860s. Small lot next to a friend’s I could’ve had for 17,500 in
1999 sold for 100k in 2005. Oh well. Frankly, was easier to do with my
gold stocks...
By 1861 Virginia City was
bustling with activity
Here is a great intro:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2005/is_n4_v26/ai_14125251
Couple of my favorite quotes:
During his tour of the great silver mines of Virginia City, Nevada in
1876, journalist and geologist Eliot Lord was both impressed and
horrified by the "cool" detachment of Cornish miners as they risked
their lives underground in pursuit of hard currency. Lord was
particularly fascinated by the daring of one Cornishman who fell into a
shaft 1,300 feet deep only to emerge unscathed minutes later "by an
astonishing combination of coolness, strength, and luck."
This line really captures the gist of the grist:
“But middle-class reformers such as Lord were hardly alone in struggling
to create a moral economy of acceptable and above all rational risks.(5)
Miners on the Comstock grappled with their own notions of acceptable
risk, but they grounded their definitions of it in the daily challenges
of wage work. While all classes of men and women in Virginia City and
nearby Gold Hill took chances, the substance and meaning of risks varied
tremendously along occupational, gender, and racial lines. The
experience of risk and the cost of failure depended a great deal on what
was at stake in the gamble--a day's wages, a person's reputation, the
well-being of one's family, a percentage of company profits, an arm, or
a life itself.”
Compare that to the modern family today who will sell their soul should
it result in government taking on acceptable and rational risks so that
the family can absolve itself of any financial risk, much less a sense
of civic or personal responsibility
12.14.07
Once the Press Stopped Being Free, It Stopped Being Much Good
N. Nevada press no longer
carries any business news stories related to mining or commodities or
manufacturing.
I’ve previously sent two emails to the Reno Gazette Journal business
editor each after they removed the mining section in business news and
after they removed the utilities section. To no avail. However, they do
make sure the population is educated on the important legal matters of
the day such as this one:
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071214/NEWS18/71214007&oaso=news.rgj.com%2Fbreakingnews
RGJ was never that good a rag, fell to even lower depths down the adit
when Gannet (USA Today) purchased. Now just another cog in the
disinformation wheel.
Here is one example hitpiece:
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071214/SPORTS/712140496/1018
Other big stories today are running R. Clemens name through the mud,
again with no analytical testing evidence. Famous people using meth is
good cover for the real story: The state and federal politicians have
been running powder through Nv to other points in the US since the early
1980’s to fund various covert operations against the citizens and to
fund campaign fundraising.
You’d think that elkodaily.com might have a blur on McEwen, since that
county is still right in the middle of gold mining, but no.
http://www.elkodaily.com
Again, what headlines are they running. Hmmm, Let’ see:
1. Meth is bad so we must control all aspects of commercial product
availability to ensure the local manufactures are outcompeted by the
large international drug running operations.
2. Roger Clemens is a bad bad man.
3. County buys yet more private buildings and land.
4. John Edwards will knock on your door Saturday. Get used to govt.
operations knocking on your door (see item one)
As far as the obligatory mining piece, here it is:
http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2007/12/14/news/mining_news/mining10.txt
Brief, bland and wrong.
Elko daily had a great mining reporter in Adelia. Now the disinformation
comes straight from govt. news. Central in Carson City.
The report does state the POG has risen due to declining USD, folks buy
gold in that env. The report. However, fails to mentions these two
salient facts:
1. Production number in USD are up b.c. the dollar aint’ worth so much
anymore; and
2. In terms of ounces gold mined, the production is down, again. In fact
this year China replace the US (i.e. Nv) as the world’s third largest
producer.
Of course the elkoonline also doesn’t show any mention of Ron Paul in
town TONIGHT:
Meeting with Elko County Republicans
Red Lion Hotel and Casino, 2065 Idaho Street, Elko, NV 89801
7:00 PM - 8:30 PM
http://www.ronpaul2008.com/
In sum,
What once were independent press reporting on what actually was
happening on the ground has been completely taken over by centralized
‘news’ produced, scrubbed, and timed from one source through multiple
outlets.
12.13.07
ESLR - Evergreen Solar
This stock has been on a huge
run. Haven't held it since I bought 3.1.06 and sold about a week
later for a lousy 8%. Thing is, it went up just a tad after that
and has been down ever since until this last week. In the last 12
weeks it's up from $9 to over 15 today. Up 14% in after hours trading
today alone to now over $17.5. Maybe let it sell off and then buy
in again when the dust settles for another trade.
12.13.07
E*Trade Love Letter
I pulled some dough out of my
ROTH IRA last month. Don't want too many eggs in that basket.
Here is the email they sent
today:
As you know, the past few
months have been challenging for the financial services industry.
However, there is some good news. E*TRADE FINANCIAL Corp. has recently
received a
$2.5 billion capital infusion from one of the world's leading investment
firms. This is a clear vote of confidence, solidifying the ability to
deliver the value you have come to enjoy—today and into the future.
To celebrate this strategic transaction and thank you for your
continuing loyalty, we are declaring Wednesday, December 19, 2007, as
E*TRADE Customer Appreciation Day.
For a full 24 hours eligible stock, options and futures trades entered
at E*TRADE Securities will not be charged a commission.ą We hope this
gives you a convenient chance to evaluate your investments, balance your
taxable gains and losses, or capitalize on trading opportunities prior
to year end.
12.6.07 BONDS
NAU Zone
How about the recent runs on state funds in Fl and
Mt?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/montana-investment-fund-sees-withdrawals/story.aspx?guid={F0D0A48E-C629-411D-B67C-30AB7D5D8BA3}
Spreading to Ct
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.zioXouabnk&refer=home
Things getting so bad in Florida they won’t even
value mark-to-market anymore:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_QaMkHBWz6I&refer=home
Of course, the money is already gone and now
they’re just trying to hold the line on “full faith and credit”.
Do you suppose the collapse of structured
investment vehicles coincides with wild divergence between yield spread
last week?
Of course Bill Gross had to throw in a
misdirection curveball on that one:
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2007-12-05T201019Z_01_N05625693_RTRIDST_0_USA-ECONOMY-PIMCO-GROSS-UPDATE-2.XML
I like this graph showing how last months SPIKE is
even worse than the 87/88 debacle:
http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/uploads/post-1762-1196373873.png
[overlaying that chart on the USD volatility shows
rather interesting.]
‘Yes sir, we can lock in that coupon rate for the
next THREE HOURS!’
Meanwhile, Canada can’t quite make up its mind on
whether or not liquidity injections are legal, much less the right call:
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=145275
European Zone
Of course, the european interbank funding rates are
nearing 10 year highs:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKL0336611120071203?rpc=44&sp=true
Hence, the carry trade is “Borrow as EUR and sell
as Pound”. Even easier (and much larger) than the USD/YEN carry
trade providing the hot air for the US equity market boom since 2003.
Been a while since we had a good ‘ol bank run in
the US. The interim between the last one is, unfortunately,
looking much longer then the interim between the next one.
Is the enveloping panic engineered to support
replacement of the USDollar (wink, wink) with the Amero?
Or would the amero see the same problems plaguing
the euro, namely that without a commensurate political union, the
monetary union will not functioned as designed. Is that why
Vincente Fox was on Larry King last month pushing for expansion of NAFTA
into the tri-partite political parliament?
How about Paulson’s ‘speech’ (GS agenda) calling
for the STATES (via muni-bonds) to bail out the sub-prime mess as part
of his ‘three point plan’?!?! INCREDIBLE. (man, the desperation in his
voice scares yesterday scared even me). Everybody raise their hand for
socialized single-family housing across the land to bail out GS,
WM, MER, BAC, C and the rest. Of course, all that was cover for the real
goal: Lock in the poor mortgage holders at high rates as the Fed
continues to lower (har!).
Heck, only thing keeping C and WM solvent right now
are exorbitant fees on their usury service and what does congress hold
hearings on yesterday: usury fees! (err, ‘credit card charges’).
Push on one end of the string and pull on the other
simultaneously?
Middle East Zone
Continuing strength in middle east market despite
last years major stock market problems.
Of course, last week abu dubai bailed out Citibank,
the “largest US bank”. (not really but that’s a different post).
Two of the three largest stakeholder in C are now in the Mideast.
So now C is paying an 11% yield to the emirate after just selling $4 USD
B in 10-year USTs (Nov. 14) which were paying %6.125 percent, all
the while continuing to pay %6.5 dividend on common stock! Oh yeah, now
that’s sustainable.
Australasia Zone
The Australian dollar as priced in Yen had been in
backwardation most of 2006 since the aussie bonds have been, and
continue to pay so much more interest. This is true at every point in
the yield curve and contango is nowhere in sight as the AUD continues to
strength (as have all commodity rich nations [except US] in the last 24
months).
Of course, any high-yield currency contract
exhibits backwardation in pricing against the Yen.
Will it continue?
On Monday the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at
6.75 per cent. AUD remains strong, as does the economy. RBA
maintains that largest worry is inflation. Although bond market
problems are not as pronounced in Australia, it expects 2008 growth to
suffer nonetheless (back to trend line).
Well, that wraps the mid-week rap…
The Play
SO: given that bond action, and other data, where
would you put in a short term (3-9mo) trade?
Why?
What stops?
What
expectancy?
What % of
trading portfolio?
What vig?
What hedge?
12.5.07
Troubles in Spookville
How did the intelligence estimates screw up both
Iraq and Iran?
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/12/05/MN7KTO9U1.DTL
Same reasons as 911 failures, or just bigger errors
commensurate with bigger budgets?
Ala DHS where they have to get rid of Mike Brown to
make way for someone with even less ability, skill and effectiveness,
can the DCI be much farther from that model?
My favorite quote in that SFgate blurbetter was
from Jay Rockefeller commending the ‘source scrub’.
Like the field agents ever get away from the
internet anymore:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/6947532.stm
(Somebody pointed that article to my attention,
thanks.)
Always enjoy reading low level analysis documents
developed by junior security agency personnel who simply cut and paste
from Wikipedia and planted links (paid search) from google. At the
same time, other government agency analysts (from a couple cube farms
away, no doubt) are salting those same articles from Wikipedia and
planted links Hence the analysis documents basically contain
critiques of what other spooks produced through their own disinformation
campaigns. Nothing like our tax funded spook building cases of
circular logic for the circle file. Hey, why not depend on them to
protect our country’s security?
12.4.07
Apollo Gold [AGT]
Listened to
an interview with David Russell, CEO of Apollo Gold on the Money Rap
show.
Here is a
summary of the numbers he presented:
Montana
Tunnels
The silver
lead and zinc credits offset cash costs of gold production to the point
Au production is actually negative $200 per ounce.
Effective
margins are $1,000/oz Margin
Black
Fox property, Timmins Ontario
Bankable
feasibility by March 08; production expected in 2008 at 150,000 oz per
year
Cash Cost
of 250 per oz (just gold) projection with $550 Margin
80 Million
free cash over project.
Net Present
Value is expected as $600 USD M. Return on investment expected over
200%.
Russell states NPV of AGT
current is $2/share (has been trading at 50 cents for a couple years).
This is the production mine
that looks exciting. Hope they can pull it off. Am surprised they were
able to make money off the Montana Tunnels project the first quarter
they brought it out of mothballs.
Here is the latest 10Q:
http://www.apollogold.com/apollodir1/news/2007q3results_lg.pdf
The increase in base metals
have really helped out their cashflow and profitability.
I've had a couple of trades
on this one and did ok. What I have left - as core holdings - has
basically stagnated, traded in a very narrow range.
Though it's been too long,
and I've lost on opportunity costs, might be time to up the position a
bit. One of those companies that can rely on increasing production
income to offset increased costs of exploration and new project
startups. Many junior mining companies are too heavily weighted in
exploration - reserves in the ground- which are getting increasingly
more expensive to get out of the ground every single day.
11.28.07
The Great Barrick Gold Swindle
(who's zooming who)
looks like we know the labor
pool from which ABX selects their board.
http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2007/11/28/news/local_news/local8.txt
here is where i speculated the problem of gold theft by mine employees
and their neighbors was set to expand. i erred in estimating how soon
the problem would come to nevada.
5.12.06 Both GSS and GBN and a whole lotta other companies will find
most their problems over the next few years will result from labor and
personnel issues.
11.26.07
The Cost of Twelve Days of Christmas
Up another 4% this year.
According to PNC, the rate of increase is 25% over last year.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071126/ap_on_bi_ge/twelve_days_cost
Of course, nobody buys a
partridge or nine milking maids on a regular basis. We do, however, all
buy food and meals. The price of that luxury has gone up well over 10%
year over year:
http://www.fb.org/index.php?fuseaction=newsroom.newsfocus&year=2007&file=nr1115.html
What I had to say last year
on the topic was more pithy, your loss...
11.25.07
Do you Understand the Extant Currents, Undertows and Eddys in Today's
Water Rights Market?
If so that makes 1.5 of us.
This guy makes points sharp
and parlayed. Worth the read:
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071116/MVN08/711160407/1309/MVN
11.25.07
Will the Foreclosure Frenzy end on a Technicality?
"Deutsche Bank got a hard
shock a few days ago when a judge in the state of Ohio in the USA made a
ruling that the bank had no legal right to foreclose on 14 homes whose
owners had failed to keep current in their monthly mortgage payments."
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=7413
Everybody and their brother
and their cousin's bookie say how bad the housing market is going to be
over the next few years since all these sub-prime mortgages will reset
in 2008 and it'll be the be-all-end-all foreclosure mess the world has
ever seen and all the peoples will be living on the street and how all
this excess inventory of houses needs to be worked off before the market
can turn back up. And then they pile on a little bit more
explaining how the baby boomers will then sell their homes in an
exercise to downsize into more accommodating living quarters and this
will further push inventories up, prevent new housing developments, and
prop up the housing depression as the worst monster to ever chew up
entire communities with one large gulp.
One problem with that theory,
every body can't be right about this prediction. The largest contrarian
position one can take in today's financial markets is that housing is a
buy, (or at least a nearby near-buy-) RIGHT NOW.
How can the current
environment provide a good buy point, if the conventional wisdom states
that home prices will decline for another couple to several years?
The fly in the ointment:
"The Judge asked DB to
show documents proving legal title to the 14 homes. DB could not. All DB
attorneys could show was a document showing only an “intent to convey
the rights in the mortgages.” They could not produce the actual
mortgage, the heart of Western property rights since the Magna Charta of
not longer."
Now, when I entered the high
bid two months ago on a foreclosure auction brokered by Williams and
Williams (one of America's largest property auction house) the Contract
for Sale hit a brief, yet interesting, pause on this play: Did the
'bank' have the right to sell me this house. I certainly hoped so
but, in fact, could not see how the 'Real Estate Owned' property was
actually owned by anybody. Nobody proffered a true title. The
lender equivocated for a moment on just this issue.
The title company serves as
party passing judgment on ownership: Title Fee, Marketable and Perfect.
Certainly the title company would notice that the seller could not
produce a mortgage in fact and in person, right? Well, the title company
- First American Title (one of the largest in the US) isn't exactly pure
as the driven snow.
http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2007/11/19/story4.html?ana=from_rss
" New York Attorney
General Andrew Cuomo filed a complaint Nov. 1 against
First American Corp. (NYSE:
FAF) and its real estate appraisal subsidiary
eAppraiseIT, charging them with wrongful conduct
that the complaint says constitutes, "a deceptive, fraudulent, and
illegal business practice."
So, the title company has
abdicated her position as moderator over title transfer as she has
succumbed to the gluttony served as the layer of cream off the top of
every deal ladled out. The title company simply provided
assurances to the lender that the bank held power of attorney to
transfer interest to title! The Preliminary Title Report showed so
weak to my review (two paragraphs speaking to perfection and 14 pages of
caveats and disclaimers and other reasons why the company can't grow a
pair of nuts), and yet this bastard title review didn't raise any
hackles on the barrister I paid to review.
(In fact, the layer wouldn't
even put his Opinion on Title in writing without another helping of
grease).
The title company, basically,
blindly took everybody's money and for the paycheck showed all parties
which pages to sign.
In reality the only thing they did was state the
transfer of interest conformed to ALTA/CLTA Homeowner's (EAGLE) Policy
statements and conditions.
Whatever. They paid the title
insurance.
This is the entity that
supposedly held title:
U.S. BANK
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION IN TRUST FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE CERTIFICATEHOLDERS
CITIGROUP MORTGAGE LOAN TRUST INC. MORTGAGE PASS-THROUGH CERTIFICATES
SERIES 2005-3
Seriously though, does that
sound right to you? Think that boogie-man shadow-entity has standing in
anybody's court of law?
Probably not in the court of
that Judge in Ohio.
So, how could this housing
depression turn on a dime? If the banks can't prove ownership,
they can't foreclose. If they can't foreclose, why would anybody pay
their mortgage, much less get kicked out of the property?
The lender loses all, the
flood of housing inventory coming to market immediately dries up like
the Colorado Plataea in year eight of the drought, and the credit
markets shiver so badly that every bank catches the flu. At that
point the 'price' of the home denominated in fiat credit value becomes
irrelevant, as the property will only sell to the truly qualified buyer
- once with cash (or better yet, hard and honest money - the antidote to
what started this whole mess in the first place.)
And here is another angle on
the play. We are currently collecting comparable values of what other
houses in our neighborhood sold for recently (just on the low end).
Reason being, we are preparing to request the county lower our assessed
value, and the resulting county property taxes, per California
Proposition 8 which states the county must lower taxes upon fall in
housing value. We paid about 40% of the original asking price on this
house and about only 60% of previously assessed value.
Do you really believe every
county in California is willing to lower her tax rolls by a full 40%?
Methinks there is already a
likely movement behind the curtain in legislature-ville to amend the
regulations and decision rules that the counties use to promulgate Prop
8. Of course these rules will change such that you must pay the
higher assessed tax value on any property you purchase. In effect,
only those who buy the houses now - and in the short term (whatever that
turns out to be) before the rules of the game get changed mid-inning (
as they always do) will be able to lower the monthly payment by hundreds
of dollars (which just may be the difference on whether the property
cash-flows or not).
Just two reasons why right
now might be the time to buy cheap property from stressed owners. We
did. The blood IS running down the street.
Now, this might not come to
pass. Things very well could get much worse for everybody.
Nevertheless where else are you getting this type of analysis? Did
any of them tell you to buy a house at foreclosure this fall? (Much less
suggest selling the Nasdaq in Feb. 00 and buying gold stocks and bullion
at the same time [yes, I was a wee bit early then also).
And what if I'm wrong?
I'll buy more later.
Haven't owned property - or
thought it time to do so- since 1990...
11.23.07
Ron Paul in Nevada
He received some very
favorable local press during his stops in Las Vegas and then Reno
11.20.07
Will E*Trade stay Afloat
I pulled some dough out of my
ROTH IRA last month. Don't want too many eggs in that basket.
11.18.07
One of the Real Reasons We are IN Iragistan:
Saddam dumped the US dollar
in favor of the euro. Turns out Iran and Venezuela have already
voiced that preference at only the 3rd ever OPEC summit.
Saudi Arabia can only hold
the line for so long. Even if just one of these countries re-pegs it's
value in dollars, it will start another downleg in the US sawbuck.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2212899,00.html
11.16.07
Pretty nice Ca/Nv ghost town site they're building here:
http://www.highdesertdrifter.com/
11.11.07
How Will America Treat her Veteran's When They Return Home?
If the returning soldier
suicide rate is any indication...
11.14.07
Now that Pakistan is Approaching Chaos
and almost 2/3rds of war
materiel supporting the US Afghanistan expedition flows through
Pakistan, what is the back-up plan? A caravan through Persia,
perhaps?
11.9.07
We Closed on the House Yesterday.
Unfortunately, not much time
to update the blog lately. The house inspection came back very
favorable! Things look great, came out ahead on this one for sure.
Learned a few things too along the way. Tomorrow we move households. I
also am buying out a small tool collection (small garage full) from a
Mare Island machinist who recently passed away. I fugure the best way to
buy tools is all at oncd. This IS the time to buy the tools of
production.
11.7.07
California Real Estate
Ryland (Housing company) CEO:
"California housing market is in a freefall".
When this punk opens his
mouth, you know the bottom is closer than the top.
11.5.07
Signed the Papers and Documents on the House Purchase Yesterday
Provident lending says there
is only a 50% chance the loan will be sold into MERS. I say 99% chance.
11.2.07
Once again the democrats in the house attempt to destroy one of the last
remaining industries left in our county, mining.
House passed a royalty bill -
basically the same one that failed in the senate last time - meant to
funnel more $$ through their NGO/political back offices. And once again
Senator Harry Reid promises to squash in the senate Why not, no progress
on any other fronts in the US senate this year.
10.31.07
SP500. Looks good.
The plunge group is dumping
billions into the equities markets. Probably bounces of 1492, or head
fakes down to 1420, makes a low and heads up until the first week next
year.
10.25.07 If
you've followed my Blog for any length of time, you've made good money.
Why not donate some to those
victims of the San Diego fire?
For those interested in
making a donation for victims of the San Diego fire, I recommend the
Salvation Army. Many of the other charity organizations, even the
legitimate ones, hold too much money back for administrative fees or
wait to long to disburse donations to those really in need.
Send a check payable to
Salvation Army. In the memo line of the check, write "San Diego Fire
Victims".
Salvation Army
180 East Ocean Blvd.
Long Beach, California
90802
United States
tel: (562) 436-7000
fax: (562) 491 8699
The San Diego contact is Don
Reed.
(619) 446.0262
10.24.07
More MainStreet Economics
Here is a random sample of
receipts that I picked up off in the ground in front of my neighborhood
ATM. Just a slice of life representing the checking account status of
the guys and gals in my fair town:
Checking Account Balance:
303.99
2,176.00
428.70
1743.38
106.99
2395.98
100.71
38.13
37.24
Average: $814.57
Quite an improvement from my
last compilation in May when the average was just over $100.
---POSTSCRIPT:
A couple gentlemen responded
to this one. One theorized that my results might change per time of day
or location of the ATM. Another put forth a theory that as times got
tougher folks would either change their ATM habits correspondingly (i.e.
keep better account and not throw slips on the ground) or stop using the
ATM altogether b.c. there was no money left in the account.
Both theories seem plausible
to me.
However, he further posited
that the penny-on-the ground theory showed him folks were tightening up
since he had been finding less pennies on the ground. Now, the
gent claimed to have only found eight pennies in the last week, which of
course makes him an amateur. On my last walk, I picked up 14 cents (nine
pennies, one nickel) and five cans (in Ca. a can is worth 5cents).
Keep in mind that I power walk/push my daughter's stroller between
30-minutes to an hour a day and about 2 hours each weekend day. My
ground rules (ahem) are that I only will go 5 steps out of my way to
pick something up. the goal is exercise, not scavenging. (I used to pick
up trash with a litter picker, have been doing that for many years.
Haven't had time last few months). then again, I have somewhat tried to
position myself as one who can se value where others can't.
Where I do disagree is
regarding the reason folks don't pick up pennies from the street.
Namely, they don't think the coin has any value. Couple months back
there was a guy panhandling in front of a liquor store I passed by. He
asked me for a dollar. I pointed out a dime on the ground no more than
10 feet from him. The guy couldn't be bothered. I left it there
for him to ponder. When the people walk by their coinage in the
gutter, it indicates not all is well with the financial system.
10.20.07
Went to a Home and Garden Show Today
Place was, as expected (and
why I went) pretty slow. Those folks trying to sell housing renovations
and upgrades were doing basically zero business. Those selling items or
services that would help our current owner to save money on bills were
doing ALL the business.
10.18.07
TSA Screeners Fail Most of The Time
"Most fake bombs missed by
screeners . 75% not detected at LAX; 60% at O'Hare"
By Thomas Frank USA TODAY.
http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20071018/1a_lede18_dom.art.htm
Wow, raise your hand if
surprised. I’m not. In fact If you go back to my posts over the
years you ‘ll find I have consistently railed against this hostile
contractor-for-hire juggernaut working for the State against the
Citizen. Not the way our fair country was set up, but reflects the way
YOU voted for it.
Last time I walked through a
TSA line they found a louse extra 5 ounces of sunscreen and 6 extra
ounces of water. Rather than be human, or efficient, or professional and
simply dumps the stuff there and then, they made me go back to the end
of the line and go through again. This slowed down the line for
EVERYBODY. Obviously they aren’t paid for efficiently or success. Now,
the line next to me had NOBODY in it, reserved for airport employees.
Walked right through they did. Now I can’t imagine that wann-be
terrursts would ever figure out how to craft a blue and white sweater
necessary to walk right past TSA screeners.
The time before that TSA
stole a book I purchased in Molokai. Hard book to get, and I had it
stamped on-site. Very few people get that stamp so I can’t just buy the
book back off the net. To add insult to injury the little pricks
at TSA left their calling card in my luggage bragging that they had been
in there.
Police state without controls
or a method of redress by the citizens with hones grievance = today’s
tax burden. You wanted it, you got it.
They can’t find a bomb, but
they can ruin YOUR day.
And yes, I actually do have a
solution to this welfare programming parading as necessity.
Dismantle the TSA , prosecute those who built and funded it, take the
money and hire approximately %1,300 more air marshals who can ACTUALLY
spot perpetrators before they execute the deed. Threr really are
professionals out there (as opposed to the nepotist-hired droupouts who
couldn’t land that Taco Bell Job). A skilled marshal actually has
quite a high success rate of sniffing out those up to no good by noting
behavioral quirks, patterns, and physiological clues.
Alas, the great unwashed
would rather vote for the same criminals who are more willing to destroy
our country and several others at the same tim with this isdirected war
against the Mideast populations. They could’ve saved a few countries and
trillion dollars by simply utilizing letters of marquee and reprisal
against Sadam (had that actually ben the goal ha ha ha!).
Oh well, too bad Tom Frank
and the rest of the paid programmers at USATODAY forgot to
mention/couldn't afford to pick up the phone and find out (like I did)
that the privately-run screening operation at SFO actually
stopped 80% of fake bomb tests. Of course, that too is a grade about C-,
worth scrapping in it's own right. Hey, did anybody ever tell you
just how many of the newspapers in this country are owned by three major
corporations?
USA Today is owned by Gannet
out of McClean, Va. They just happen to be located less than two miles
away from those who write the headlines at CIA headquarters in Langley
Va.
Now isn’t that a
coincidence!?!?)
10.14.07
Nevada Real Estate
Reno: Prices down about a
third over past two years. Although local builders are sitting on
large supply, and forecloses are
very high, the prices have
not fallen nearly as much as neighboring California.
Las Vegas: Local 'experts'
believe the residential slump will continue for another 18-24 months.
The commercial market remain
strong.
Here are some commercial
comparables:
Strip: 11-22 sq. ft.
Downtown: 5-7 sq. ft.
E. Tropicana (3000 blk) 1.50
sq. ft.
Another comp - Downtown
Sacramento: 1.50 - 2.0 sq. ft.
10.10.07
Back from the River
Ran a kayak down the Colorado
River, Glenn Canyon. PRetty INtense.
Side trips to Grand Canyon,
Death Valley and Zion.
9.28.07
The beauty of our own financial blog.
The model proves worthy. Over the last 8 years the goldbugz and us
hashed out what's really been goin' on in the world. In
the meanwhile, the internet
was born and forum technology allows every one of us to put up a website
that - by and large - will
compete directly with
whatever NYTIMES or MSNBC puts on their site. Just an opinion the masses
can read.
Thing is, the playing field has leveled. They used to have the advantage
of a printing press that spammed 300k newspapers
a day on our front porch. Now
we all have the same platform.
And our analysis is better.
The little people know...
9.28.07 Kovel's
notes that the major auction houses have all raised their take
An excerpt from their article
"Buyers' Premium on the Rise".
Several bits of news
this week.
Sotheby's is raising the buyer's premium for "low-end"
bids again, see
Kovels Komments 2/22/2007.
It was 20% tacked on to the bid on anything under $500,000, and
12%
for anything over
that. Now it is 25% on the first $20,000, 20% for $20,000 to
$500,000 and 12% on
anything more
expensive. Christie's also has a 25%, 20%, 12% buyer's premium.
Why should we care?
Because each time
Christies and
Sotheby's raises the buyer's premium the other smaller,
regional auction
houses follow
Another artifact of the
decline in the dollar (things 'cost' more), moreso than the underlying
market (tangible asset sectors relative
to each other).
9.28.07
Are Classic Cars a Good Investment
Well, they have been since
the mid 1980's. The market actually peaked about 3 years ago. Have a
family member that just
unloaded their 1960's
corvette, but it took several months to sell and they basically received
their minimum {well, at least that's
slightly better than the
current housing market!).. When you see articles like this one pushed by
MSN, you know that they are
providing a smoke screen for
all those in-the-know types who are unloading their collectible cars:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/A4WheeledInvestmentVehicle.aspx?GT1=10421
Note the following quote from
that article:
"Just a couple of years
ago, you could buy a
1969 Z-28 Camaro in really nice condition for $40,000; now that same
car is probably $60,000,"
says John DiPietro, the road-test editor for auto Web site
Edmunds.com."
Yeah, the car went up by a
third and the dollar has lost a third of its value in the exact same
timeframe. What a coincidence!
Exact same thing that
happened to all those people who thought they were rich because their
house value went up, so they went
in debt commensurately, and
are now getting creamed.
Why are folks dumping heir
collectible 1950's and 1960's cars? These reasons: Price of storage,
price of gas, lack of parts and
mechanics, and mostly -
demographics.
Who are the buyers today of
these 1950's and 1960's cars? The boomers hold the cars, the gen x has
their money in the market
and the house, and the gen y
want new japanese 'rice-rockets' not classic US cars.
IF you want to examine this
trend in more detail, simply look at the trends of the largest hotrod
show in the United States - Hot
August Nights in Reno/Sparks
Nv.
It's peaked. When we went to
the first show at the A&W drive in in 1986 there were a couple dozen
cars and a few dozen
people.
This year 700 thousand came
into town along with about 5,500 registered - not counting the
non-registered cars.
It won't grow from here.
Again, we can verify through demographics. In 1980s you could still hire
band made famous in the
1950's and 1960's. Sure, they
were a little over their prime, but still some outstanding Motown Acts.
Now, they're all dead or
otherwise not able to
perform. This years entertainment was Tony Orlando.
It's played out. Sell the car
now. If you can...
9.27.07
GooRoos
Those financial podcasters
bullish on gold right now:
Phil Grande, Gary Kaltbaum,
Jack DeAngelis
Bearish:
Ray Lucia, Ben Stein
9.25.07
Well, thanks for the good wishes (first foreclosure auction).
I put in the high bid and
have contract for sale to buy the house (yes, I've been in and under the
house more than once. I
figured if nobody I ask knows
more about the house than I already do, that qualified me to bid.)
Now I have to wait to see if
the lender (US Bank) accepts my low-ball offer.
This house was originally
listed in Oct 2005 at 432k (the owner had paid $469
- 19,000 over asking price) just a few months previou.
My offer was - considerably
-less.
How much less?
Let's put it this way.
US Bank will lose at least $150 grand if they do accept my offer, and
lose even more if they don't. The second position has
already been closed out for a
loss of about 55k.
Yep, I still think the market
still has quite a bit lower to go. I can take a hit of another 20% over
the net two year because
I expect it.
Not everybody is quite
prepared for California housing to lose 50% on paper in 4 years.
House I'm researching now is
two stories, separate in-law entrance, gated, mature fruit trees, great
shape, has water views...
House was 'at' $490; now
'listed' 320k. Reason I like it is b.c. the agents won't even respond to
a voice mail. Looks like the
family was rounded up in the
recent immigration raids. Children's toys still in the yard, and nobody
has been in the house for
weeks. And Dept. of
Homeland Security is now ready to send out another round of many
thousand letters to employers with
illegal immigrant on their
payroll [Do Not Match letters].
Things on the ground are
gettin' weird. Time for the experience weird with time in the trench to
put up a shingle and turn pro.
(Hey, can I answer the phones
for you and birddog on my lunch breakette?)
And these houses I look at
are the ones built by US craftsmen in the 1940's and 1950s. The house I
live in was BUILT with
a REDWOOD frame and drywalled
garage. Solid.
The last 1,000 homes built in
this town (which sold for $750k+ between 2002 and 2005) are built with
transient labor out of
the cheapest crap that china
wouldn't claim. I've seen it.
Some of these tracts how have
over 70% of their 'owners' underwater. And many of their rates reset
again next month.
I've gotta admit, at one
point I actually didn't believe those stories out of Weimar Germany
about how few ounces of gold
would buy a house.
Now I believe it. Although
glad I listened when the story was told, wished it was nothing more than
just a Grimm Fair Tale;
not a notice posted on the
front door of every third neighbor...
---
and just for grins 'n
giggles. In the middle of one of the most cheaply made/expensively sold
'planned communities' Walmart just
opened up a Superstore. Doors
opened last week. The people fought for years to keep it away. Wal-Mart
opens their doors
while most people in the
surrounding neighborhoods are losing their homes.
eGad, I wish I could write
fiction that sublimey horrific...
The most important part of
TIME is ME.
8.25.07
Going to my first (private) foreclosure auction today
Wish me luck.
Planned on going to one last
month (county) but the folks redeemed 5 years in back taxes the day
before the auction. And yet
they haven't maintained or
inhabited the house in five years either. Go figure.
8.25.07
The beautiful thing about discrediting yesterday's news
(and last generations'
history)
is that it makes today news
unnecessary, so we can concentrate on more important things...
9.25.07
Given that some Finance Forums
Have absolutely nailed cold
the demographic and financial acts which have unfolded over the past few
years, one must wonder
how the NIC got things so
terribly wrong in their 1997 forecast of 2007.
http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_globaltrends2010.html
Generally they recognized
their blunders in the update, yet repeated the same conditions which led
to their originally errant analysis.
http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2015.html
Ho hum. Why do the
Ivy-leaguers [in-bred/in-thought] continue to shamelessly pimp, pump and
dump their yemming-hemming
and hawing? What bragging
rights do they want in 2016?
"Lookie, our gross
generalities were not only general, but really gross too! Please
renew our contract".
Put it simple folks: What
should my investment portfolio be today, next year, and 2014 to best
reward from your current
prognostications for 2015?
oh yeah, that's what we do...
9.24.07
Sold SLV today
Nice little trade - up a few
percent in just five weeks.
Hoping to buy back lower (for
yet another nice little trade).
9.22.07
Communication - the Final Human Frontier
Why have there been so many
attempts to break down interpersonal human communication? Perhaps
there are economic
reasons? Indeed there are.
During the last depression in the US and many other countries during the
1930's people were able to
get by and get through via
bartering. My grandparents told me they survived well because they were
able to trade their labors for
that of the local butcher.
If we are going to make it
through the next depression (one day closer than yesterday) we will
again need to barter. This depends
on communication and
agreement of value. Few areas of our psyche have been so programmed as
these. Will get interesting; not a
bad time to learn some
evaluation and negotiation techniques.
9.16.07
Existing Home ask Prices in Solano County
In Solano County (San
Francisco Bay Area) SFH prices are accelerating to the downside - based
upon 5years of comps I have
compiled. My analysis shows
that when price decrease levels off, it will plateau for a couple years
and then begin to rise again.
Note: Even though many house prices in our county had almost doubled
(about 80% increase) in the last 5 years, they are now
coming off these highs.
Existing home sale ask prices per sq. ft. in some cases are off over 50%
from their highs in Sept 05.
More Important Note: In the same time period the dollar has lost one
third of its value. In this state houses are priced in dollars.
9.15.07
Alan Greenspan Claims the war on Iraq was really about oil
Of course, he is lying about
this too, as he generally has lied about everything else (at least what
was stated in public).
In other words, the oil
wasn't meant for you and I.
Too bad he won't come out a
exclaim that US Currency (which has lost 1/3 of its value in six years)
will lose another half in the
coming years. On its way to
becoming valueless, which is its intrinsic value.
Oh, yeah. He already stated
as much, and more, such as Gold is money of last resort within his
published thesis back in the 60's.
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/greenspan.html
Nobody listened to him then,
too bad. Now the guy is so deep into the system, he couldn't tell
the truth - even if he recognized it
anymore.
Basically, the guy put out
everything he had for his masters, got screwed, and is now trying to
regain/salvage whatever is left of his
legacy.
Too bad for him, someone like
me will be spreading his true legacy for the next 50 years...
9.13.07
Let the Bank Runs Begin
Northern Rock - Britain.
Just some pensioners life
savings. Oh well.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6997197.stm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2007/09/rock_the_numbers.html
Coming to a neighborhood near
you. Time and Place not to be announced.
9.2.07
Labor Day 2007 - The US Labor Movement in Tatters
Think of their loss in
earning power and share of the American Workforce. In 1938 at the
height of the unions strength, almost
one in three workers were in
a union. Now it's one in 12. In the 1950s and 1960s most families
were making it on once income.
Now in most families both
parents work (if the family even has two parents) and the household may
still be falling behind;
foreclosure and bankruptcy
rates in 2007 haven't been this high since the 1930s.
9.2.07
No sense mis-spending any part of my labor day pondering the
meaning of gold and money.
So, I will let others do the
work for me:
Though- reading the important
thoughts is no small task on any holiday.
“What is overlooked is that
the barometer is part of the event it’s supposed to forecast.”
- Harry Browne,
New
Profits from the Monetary Crisis. William Morrow and Co.,
1978.
“The Role played by money is
society depends on the structure of society. In a certain sense the
reserves is also true; when we
see how money functions is a
certain society, we can judge the nature, the types of property, the
character of economic relations
between people”
-A Anikin
Gold
- The Yellow Devil. Translated and Printed in U.S.S.R
International Publishers. 1983.
“When we are victorious on a
world scale I think we shall use gold for the purpose of building public
lavatories in the streets of
some of the largest cities of
the world. This would be the most ‘just’ and most educational way of
utilizing gold…”
Vladimir Lenin.
The
Importance of Gold Now and After the Complete Victory of Socialism.
1921.
"Gold Fever is a disease...a
happy mixture of matter and an idea."
- Lois De Lorenzo.
Gold
Fever and the Art of Panning and Sluicing. Lois De Lorenzo.
ATR Enterprises. Los Angeles, Ca. 1970.
But, none of them post here
of help keep my blog efforts fruitful.
So Screw 'em!
funny thing about gold -
everybody is wrong...
9.1.07
Somebody was kind enough to send their list of financial reference
books.
Now I've always believed a
good library was a great start. I enjoy perusing the used book stores
for these and similar titles.
Many of their titles were not
on my radar screen – now they are.
Here is my current reference
library.
http://www.coinmine.com/Reference/Reference.htm
I’ve already lightened up
quite a bit (a couple hundred) and still have way too many that could be
added. Still, my current
recommended list/inventory is
over 350 (granted – my subject list wanders quite afield – not nearly as
focused as I should be
perhaps).
And NO, haven’t read all of
them. However I’ve perused parts of them all. A few read fantastic
cover-to-cover. Yet that quality
of authorship is fairly rare
in financial writing, so I’ve found, and mostly these serve for
reference purposes.
Nowadays I no longer want the
books to just sit around gathering dust. Consider theme fungible
commodities. Buy and trade; gift
and give. Once one flies out
the mail I buy another one or two at an estate sale. My favorite is
buying from garage sales and estate
sales. The things people use
as bookmarks prove fascinating..
Eventually
I’d like to only have three or four books on hand at any one time. Not
exactly sure how to get there from here, but do
believe
part of the solution requires getting rid of some I currently shelve…
8.31.07 What Country's people would you describe as
inherently honest?
I'd like to go there.
Bhutan comes to mind for me. measuring
Gross National Happiness instead of GDP. Thing is, they got a line to
visit. and the only
people i know who went said its pretty
boring.
Sure, everybody claims to desire happy
and boring.
et once they get there, they leave after
about 5 minutes...
8.31.07 The Wyoming State
Quarter is coming out next
Looks pretty goofy to me.
http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/50sq_program/states/index.cfm?flash=yes&state=WY
When you think of Wyoming,
did a bucking bronco come to your mind first?
For me, I harken the icons -
Devils Tower, Tetons, Old Faithful, two guys in a pickup truck, guns in
a rack, with their dogs in the
back - the iconic Wyoming
double date...
8.22.07
Vallejo Real Estate
According to a real estate
agent I spoke with yesterday, the MLS reports the average day's on
market in supposedly only 90 days.
However, do believe they
calculate that only with the final listing agent and don't count all the
months listed with other agents
before the listings reset
with new agents.
8.16.07
Utah Miners (you think your week was bad?)
from a cold fundamental
analysis, too hard to calculate the price risk that underground miner
sector places on the
collapse/rescue operation.
action obscured by larger market forces/selloff.
RIP sunshine miners and all
their brethren b4 and after...bbl...
8.16.07
Days Like Today - Awesome Liquidity, actually
Got my fills in both SLV and
GLD.
Not sure why anyone would
call this a panic (yet).
Last time i bought SLV -
earlier this year - was at 10.95.
Last time i bought GLD - last
month, maybe june? (no time to lookee, gata post and run right now) was
below here.
Should anybody who can't
stomach a 10% change in their net worth over a fortnight even be
trading?
8.14.07
Ancient Recent History
Most Roman coins that have
been sleeping with the fishes require too much thirourea et. al. to be
worth dickering over
Come to think of it, my next
most recent potential favorite topic:
Using oxidized thiourea as a
lixiviant...
8.14.07
For those short homebuilders and banks right now...
Short Bear Stearns, TMA and
Lennar look good. Centex, Reno office laid off 80% of their staff
last month.
I haven't looked at Lennar's
financials, but they've bitten off an incredible amount of expensive
land here in Ca in the last nine years.
they just started running
commercial radio spots to unload some inventory.
8.14.07
red head fred bled the dead at club med
i was in the SF FED bank
today. just happened to be walking by, actually. they didn't seem that
sentimental. really, the security
guards seemed a little bored
so I started asking a couple innocent questions. then they suggested i
take the tour. friday at noon. I
asked how long it was. they
replied it depends on who is on the tour and how many questions they
ask.
i think they know...
hopefully i can find where i
stashed that FED comic book a couple years back. I may ask for
autographs.
8.13.07
The Classic Car Market
peaked two summers ago. now
in a steady decline.
Comes down to this:
demographics.
When was the last time you
saw a twentysomething buying bullion?
8.10.07
Listened to Sirius (satellite) radio while driving around the
hinterlands of Oregon all Week
Two stations spent most time
on - the Gratelful Dead 'sneak peak' channel and Bloomberg financial
news
12 years ago I wouldn't have
even listened to bloomberg. Now I found it more enjoyable, actually
(especially the worry-worts
crying about the financial
panic)
weird!
8.4.07
Panic in the International Credit Market
The bond market forecast
trouble, as we’ve documented both timely and well herein. Since
then, the USDollar has lost a full third
of its value, the housing
market in many areas of the US have turned south, the flippers left the
ranks, the pre-foreclosure activist
are sniffing the air both
mightily and anxiously, and the equities market have shown what it
really means to say the bond market is
10x as large as the equities
market.
Those paying attention had
the shield of precious metals to protect against the damage of the last
year.
Alas, there is nowhere to
hide this time.
Previously, the precious
metal and commodity markets offered a safe haven even while investing in
those asset classes provided
ridicule by the talking
heads, and especially those with something to lost.
Who can now no longer deny a
situation presenting itself on the living room couch with its intentions
to stay a bit longer, too much
longer for a houseguest.
The madmen on tv screams out
for US Fed intervention - rate cuts. However, the Fed has tied hands.
They’ve been printing
money at 13% per year (the
M3) while lying all the while that inflation is only 2.3 percent.
Of course the 13% and the commodity
run only represents monetary
inflation. In the main we’ve been in a very damaging deflationary
environment. Should the Fed
lower rates, the foreign
central banks will become even greater strangers than they have been in
the past 24 month.
‘Tis a fact: Caribbean banks
have been buying US T-bills to prop up the flagging long rates while at
the same time Asian Central
Bank purchases have declined.
But the easy money stopped
flowing, and now Bear Stearns CEO tells his tale of woe.
"These times are pretty
significant in the fixed income market. It's as been as bad as
I've seen it in 22 years. The fixed income
market environment we've
seen in the last eight weeks has been pretty extreme." Chief
Financial Officer Sam Molinaro Aug 3
(Reuters NY)
And In europa, earlier today
the German mutual funds group Union Investment said it had frozen
withdrawals from a fund
investing in asset-backed
securities, including U.S. subprime mortgages.
Also form the father land,
(Reuters Frankfurt) – According to Financial Times Deutchland, HSBC
Investments Deutschland has
temporarily frozen its 200
million euro Asset-Backed-Securities fund to protect investors amid a
crisis in the U.S. subprime
market according to HSBC
Trinkhaus' company lawyer Norbert Stabenow”.
Remember when Collateralized
Debt Obligations were called Collateralized Mortgage Obligations? He he
he, (snicker)
The US consumer has bought
more than s/he could afford, and more than s/he saved for several years
running. The Merry Go
Round has ground to an abrupt
stop, paper holders thrown under the wheels did the trick.
For a couple years now the
U.S. capital markets (both equities and bonds, actually) have been
losing market share to
overseas – especially
European – competitors. Saudi Arabia and China and Japan only have so
much willingness to invest in a
declining asset – US paper
promises.
Previously a slowdown in US
mortgage market did not cause financial turmoil in europe. Ain’t
globalization grand!
So, where’s the safe haven
now?
7.29.07
I understand that Alberta, Canada just passed some new groundwater
regulations
Since Canada in general, and
Alberta in particular, has very few water protection laws, I'm guessing
they've updated either the
drilling regulations or the
potable water regulations.
Anybody have the details?
7.29.07
The Coming Water Wars:
Chapter 101 - Walker River
Basin:
When the talks break down,
start legislation. Legislation provides the pretext for violence.
Violence begets the transfer of
resources.
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070727/MVN01/707270470/1305/BIZ01
Eventually this will bleed
into the Colorado Compact, and then spread to contaminate the High
Plains Aquifer (nee/and Ogallala),
and the rest of the world's
largest underground water bodies.
7.29.07
Water Mining
[Where: Δp =
λ (l / dh) (ρ v2 / 2) (1)]
(Major loss in a pipe)
The smart miners are focusing
on how to dewater their ore bodies.
The brilliant miners are
focusing on how to mine water:
1. Use of injection wells to
send surface water into an aquifer for storage.
2. Draw upon the aquifer
storage during the dry (or developing) years.
3. Skim off the top to pay
off the pols and lawyers.
4. Rinse and repeat...
7.29.07
More on Mine Dewatering
Many underground metal ores
that have been uneconomical due to flooding of shafts, or saturation of
the ore, are now becoming
economic deposits as the
prices of metals rises in this long term commodity bull market.
The mine water issue has plagued mining
engineers for as along as the
industry has existed. Today's hydro geologists and engineers
benefit from groundwater models, albeit
complicated and always wrong
(though often helpful) that assist dewatering plans before spending
money in the field. There are
great ore bodies in S. Africa
and N. America just waiting for competent mine shaft to penetrate the
submerged fortress and yield
the goodies though its
waters' specific yield. Adolphus Sutro made a fortune as a promising
young engineer by dewatering the
Comstock lode 120 years ago.
His predecessors now have their min-sights on Canada and S. Africa. Just
need somebody new to
step up to the plate. Too bad
our universities graduate more lawyers than engineers.
7.25.07
Talked With a Groundwater Engineer Today
He works with Environmental
Resources Management - South Africa supporting large groundwater
dewatering project for some
of the majors south African
mining: Angloplats, Harmony, Goldfields etc.
Tried to ask him about the
GBN Burnstone Property on the Kimberly reef, which he didn't know
anything about. However, he
did tell me some interesting
things about another project, and the BEE. Thing about the BEE, as
far as he related (and as far as
my cursory looks have
divulged) is that the law is rather specific and complicate, yet not so
transparent. One issue some of the
large multi national vendors
have been having is regarding the requirement to have 50% black
(SA) owned business. No, how
exactly, is a large
multi-national corporation going to be half owned by the locals in their
particular country. Doesn't happen So,
they've been issuing these
'exemptions'. And these exemptions, apparently, have something to
do with who you known in the
government. Ahhhh.
political pols and their pals. Same as it ever was. Here there and
under there.
7.20.07
Market Timers. Let's look at one (one with a huge ego and emphasis on
disinformation):
Bobby Brinker. Specifically,
what was his call during the beginning of the last stock market bear.
Well, in January 2000, Bob -
via his subscription newsletter MarketTimer, urged his subscribers to
take out 60% of money
invested in equity accounts
and put into cash. He took another 5% out in August for a total 65%
position in cash. Now, had he
stayed there and actually
waited until 2003 to buy back in (as Bubby repeatedly crows that he did
on his radio show at an interval
of about every seventeen
minutes) his call would have been brilliant. Alas, that isn't how the
story goes. Instead, he notified his
subscribers to await further
direction. Well the direction that came, although not via his
newsletter, but through a special alert
mailed via the good 'ol US
Postal Service.
On October 16 of 2000 that
mailer urged "Act Immediately" and buy QQQ (Nazdaq). His guidance
was that he felt comfortable
buying QQQ at 86 (after
coming down from a recent high of about 120) for a suspected
countertrend rally of between 20-40%
over the next two to four
months. It actually went back up to almost 100, before dropping
like a knife for the next two years all
the way to 20!
If any of Bubby Brinker's
loyal denizens had took his advice at the time, what would have
happened? Would they have stopped?
Likely many of them did not.
Few people actually use tight trading stops. Many of them had made, at
least on paper, good money
in the 1990s market and were
willing to stick it out. Those unwitting followers would have
watched the QQQ drop from 100 to
20, losing a cool 80% of
their account had they sold at the low (which so many people do - market
psychology of the masses and
all that).
(The Q's, as they are called,
right now are still only trading at about a third of their 2000 high.)
One bad call, combined with a
little stubbornness is all it takes.
However, in 2000 he was
badmouthing gold in a big way (as well documented here at the time).
Meanwhile, we were urging
people to buy gold in 2000 - going against the grain.
Gold is up over 250% since
then...
Just, trying to keep the
light from the ubiquitous dark matter.
Listened to most the show in
00 and 01 as back then bubby had a few good zingers against greenspan
since even the
disinformation artists on the
payroll were beginning to drown in the bullscheist they were paid to
peddle. Nowadaze I only need
to catch the 9 minute
monologue which serves as the party line direct from
Pualson/Kudlow/Goebels. The rest of the three hours
just re-heats the same old
hash dutifully served and designed to keep the pebes in government debt
and mutual funds (one of the
worlds most profitable
businesses), lining he and his cronies plagued pockets.
7.20.07
I've have been (sort of) reading The World is Flat by Thomas
Friedman.
Found the book in new
condition (without dust jacket) on the street, actually. Hadn’t’ heard
of it before and thought it might have
been a relation of the Milton
Friedmans clan.
Read about three chapters so
far and haven’t picked it up in about a month. Its ok, not a great read
– mostly a study of the
obvious (to erudite kitco
converts)- but the guy does point out some perceptions and relations in
the tech industry over the last 20
years that I’ve never really
pondered much before. Tom drops too many names to be taken as a
serious economic student.
Hopefully the book gets
better after the third chapter?
7.19.07
Nice Long Term gold charts
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72221307507&a=111503404
7.19.07
Option contracts relative to shares outstanding in an issue
Here's something I've been
looking into.
Are there any benchmarks on
how many contracts should be trading for an issue given shares
available/outstanding/float?
Moreover, how would those
ratios change at 3, 6,9 months out?
How would those ratios change
in secular bear, secular bull, and cyclical action.
Trending vs. basing.
Etc.
These are not strategies
based upon chart action (ie. buying backspreads during chart breakouts
etc.), but rather a fundamental
analysis based on the
relation of the derivative (option) relative to the underlying asset
(share). Just looking for simple ratios.
Haven’t had much luck finding
research on this, looking for further references.
I do know many traders look
at option settlement date maximum pain price as the primary piece of
information they take from
options market and apply to
buying/selling the underlying shares?
Why is this ratio king?
7.19.07
At this point, might be wise
to cycle holdings from GLD to
GDX
7.19.07
Viking treasure Find WOW!
http://news.scotsman.com/uk.cfm?id=1130322007
All of us metal detectorists
dream of something like that.
Now, per a cursory look it
seems that in the UK not only is ownership of detector finds subject to
land property, but to the
Treasure Act of 1996.
Soooo, these guys can only keep the loot if the Coroner says so, and
then if the museum says so, and
then if the ‘independent
board of antiquities dealers’ says the price is right. (As if any of
them are independent of existing
government regs?).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treasure_Act_1996
that said, kudos to them for
keeping the lot together. Cultural resources lose their value when
parsed out of context.
In the US, detectoring is
governed by similar laws. Finders keepers on private land, but the
govt. can confiscated finds like that
on federally managed lands
(without re-imbursement).
At any rate, a once in a
lifetime find, for sure!
7.20.07
Everton Mining Sample Results
http://www.evertonresources.com/e/news/2007/2007-07-18.asp
Question for Canadians: how many months of the year is this property not
accessible via road?
http://evertonresources.com/e/properties/quebec/opinaca/
Mining properties with long and quiet winters make for a time to
research and buy shares, not hold and hope...
7.10.07
Aging US infrastructure: a problem going systemic
at this point, the water and
waste water industries (as with mining) are having a difficult time just
hiring and marinating people to
run the system. finding
talent to rebuild and re-engineer critical infrastructure is another
layer of sticky wickets.
NEM and ABX have funded a chair at the NV university to train mining
engineers and geologist b.c. the labor issue is already so
acute. now, those firms have
been doing relatively well.
How is the US manufacturing industry going to support university chairs
and endowments when the majority of the sector has
already been dismantled and
sold off in bulk lots?
7.16.07
Dynatec
Even though they were
acquired by Sherritt last month, they are still hiring under the Dynatec
banner (and as SRA). In fact,
they're currently advertising
positions for three operations in Tennessee scheduled to open later this
year. The
three mines,
Elmwood, Gordonsville, and Cumberland are underground zinc mines about
an hour outside of Nashville. I find it amazing some
of the Cumberland base metal mines are opening up. Makes me wonder
who right now is running the numbers on re-opening
some of the copper mines in the Huron district, N. Minnesota and
Michigan. The
Ambatovy in Madagascar provides someplace
I would love to visit...
7.15.07 Oakland Coin Exchange
Walked
into their store this week last. Asked about a couple coins they
had in the displays. The lady kindly informed me that
neither of the two coin guys' showed up that day and therefore I
couldn't buy any coins. Nice enough folks, they just weren't
equipped to sell any of their wares. Kinda makes me scratch my head and
wonder how they've stayed in business there for 30
years...
7.14.07
Got my trading sights on EGO
The stock plummeted last two
days on news the Turkish Government shut down one of their mines.
Environmental issue. Labor
problems present a pricing
anomaly.
Sooner or later somebody will
take the gold out of the ground. Just might be a somebody with better
political contacts.
Price-wise, downside is
perhaps 4.30 on the price channel and then 3.50. Upside about
6.25$. Never owned it before. This
would be a longer term hold,
not a swing trade because the reason for buy is social, not technical.
7.13.07
Sold GLD, just below 66.
Could still have upside,
perhaps considerable so.
Yet - since I bought at about
63.5 on June 27th, that's about 5%. Not a kings ransom, but when put
into a per annum rate
considering GLD was up about
10 of the last 12 sessions over the last six days: cha ching!
7.6.07
More on Mining Costs
Somebody asked a great
question today: Which has higher costs, strip mining or underground?
Here is my answer:
Construction, material, fuel,
permit, and labor costs have all gone up. however, labor follows the
other costs. since labor is more
essential to underground
mining and fuel a larger input to open pit, the costs have risen faster
for above ground. Nevertheless, the
open pit mine is generally
cheaper. However, underground reserves more amenable to underground
'hardrock' mining seem to be
driving hihger vs. above
ground 'open pit' reserves.
Rising labor costs -
especially as the production companies scramble for geologists with
actual experience in minesight, permitting,
etc. may begin to drive
underground production prices higher, comparably, to above ground.
Labor, power, construction,
water, permits. generally the order of costs; variable per geography,
country, socioeconomic
conditions, ore, etc.
Look at CAU. they would be
making bank, but can't get a permit. So, the socio-economic costs are
highest, no?
Methinks the costs of water,
historically cheap, will slingshot to moon very soon...
Costs vary per geography,
ore, and society (and society trumps)
In Nv you can hire a security
guard for $14-18/hr and an operator for $17-25/hr.
How much in Venezuela?
Yet - the socio-economic
(environmental/political) costs in Nv are very known constants. a permit
will generally cost x. and
take y months.
Now, as with CAU foibles with
political obstacles in Mt, that cost is UNKNOWN. Today a total deal
killer - 2 years from now
perhaps a non-factor.
Mining and markets abhor
uncertainty.
So, is the political factor
in Venezuela known or unknown.
Given Bolivia nationalization
of the mines last year, and Chavez histrionics earlier and especially
the proof in that pudding- GRZ
price volatility - I'd
venture scale tipped more toward the unknown. At least from these eyes.
One great social unknown that
had loomed in NV. was Jimboy Gibbons attempts to re-structure Mining Act
of 1872. However,
H. Reid blocked him. And,
given Jimboys legal problems (ooh, big surprise there), he ain't doing
nothing on the action front for
quite a while. A good thin!
in other words, lets discuss
ALL the costs...
Even then, Societal costs
trump all other mining costs.
Another rising
socio-economic cost: safety
After the latest series of W.
Virginia coal mining fiascos, MSHA promulgated new regs regarding
amounts and types of O2
required underground. these
regs just kicked in. Keeping SBA apparatus not cheap.
Underground operations are
inherently more dangerous.
Though, as a tragic twist of
fate, the last NV mining death (just a few days ago) happened when an
above ground operator
collapsed an underground
structure. They didn't find him. RIP miner.
NEM, ABX, MSHA and state all
sent rescue teams. What's the cost maintaining those teams on ready
status?
How much you think they spend
on safety in chinese mines?
Socio-economic costs
trump.
Even though Socio-economic
costs are qualitative and not quantitative, in the end result they are
all that matter.
You do not have a mine
without a permit, or permission from the local chief (and his henchmen
on the payroll).
The miner could have
estimated probable and proven reserves to within a 10th of a gram. But,
no permit = no mine, just a whole
lot of sunk costs in the ore
estimation.
Even worse, 90% or the permit
= No permit.
Let's quickly run through
just a few of the environmental steps necessary to begin operation of a
mine in Nv:
Primary Laws and Regulations Governing Mining
(Promulgated
per DOI Mining and Minerals Policy, 1973)
-
Comprehensive Environmental
Response, Compensation and Liability Act [aka 'Superfund']
-
Emergency Planning and Community
Right to Know Act
-
Solid Waste Disposal Act
-
Safe Drinking Water Act
-
Migratory Bird Treaty Act
-
Toxic Substances Control Act
-
Endangered Species Act
-
National Historic Preservation
Act
-
Native American Graves Protection
and Repatriation Act
-
Federal Mine Safety and Health
Act of 1977 (Mine Act)
Abandoned mine reclamation funds 30 CFR Part 872
http://www.osmre.gov/federalregister/44fr67057.txt
Interior Department Regulations
Title 43; Chapter II - Department of Interior
http://www.access.gpo.gov/nara/cfr/waisidx_00/43cfrv2_00.html
Bureau of Land
Managements (BLM's) 1980 Regulations 43 CFR part 3800,
Restrictions on Patented Land Use
http://www.nplnews.com/library/1872mininglaw/occupancy/jul161996-43cfr3715.htm
Yes, that is only a portion
the federal laws and just a minute fraction of the federal regulations.
Let's not even go into the
Nevada Administrative Code, and federal and state safety code and regs.;
and state and federal land
provisions; and Nevada
business practices, and building codes; yet.
Well, maybe for just a little
side trip. What type of permitted activities might your Nevada miner
need to acquire?
In sum - I't ain't your
reserves in the ground - it's only what the big and little chiefs say it
ok to take out of the ground.
And of course, the big
socio-economic reality: It ain't what you take out of the ground - its
what you can make for it at the market.
then finally, it aint what
you make, or what you keep, its what you can spend without drawing undue
attention.
Otherwise,
go back to square one.
7.5.07 A
Raphael painting sells for record amount this week.
Last week Bill Gross sold
over $8M in stamps at record amounts.
Is the tangible/collectible
market tearing into two tiers: the uber-wealthy get more and the
commoner loses more ground?
Could be...
Here is an interesting write
up by Kovels (one with skin in the game):
The 500-pound gorilla
called eBay is a problem that is having problems. Auction volume is
down by 3.8% this year.
We have heard prices
are down by about 30%. EBay has antagonized dealers by changing
rules about feedback so
they seem to favor
buyer complaints. Higher fees have cut into profits. It is almost as
if eBay has decided the
collectibles market is
no longer important. Profit is in electronics and cars. They want
collectors to stop by, but
primarily because they
might buy a car or a phone. We have been told it doesn’t pay to sell
anything on eBay for
less than $100. Too
many fees and hidden costs. The big news this week is that Sotheby’s
decided the same thing
in a much bigger way.
It costs the same to sell a $1,000 painting or a $100,000 painting.
So to bolster profits, they
will no longer take
consignments worth less than $5,000. That means there should be more
merchandise for smaller
auction houses and
online sites and sales. But eBay has angered the sellers and some
are looking for other online
auction sites. And the
other online sites are working to attract more business
EBay has another
problem not in the collectibles area. The Supreme Court just ruled
to overturn the antitrust law
that prohibits retail
price fixing. (The law came from a 1911 case about Dr. Miles and his
patent medicine, a name
well known to today’s
bottle collectors.) The
selling price of watches, computers, phones and more will be
controlled by the
manufacturers. There are already companies that will not furnish
product to online sellers who
cut prices. And it
will be much harder, even illegal, to offer a name brand car or TV
or even furniture polish or
Hummel figurines at
less than the manufacturer’s suggested price used by all other
sellers. We suspect the
eBay merchants will
find a way, just as the antiques dealers did. When it became illegal
to sell a zebra rug because
of the endangered
species laws, we saw offers of an inexpensive table priced $1,000
sold with a free zebra rug.
Of course, it is
perhaps unethical, but it rarely ended in a court case. Will the
gift idea get into this ruling?
Other outlets have run recent
pieces on the decline in the mall/mom&pop antique shops. There
certainly don't seem to be many
opening up new venues.
Of course, there are numerous reasons for the phenomena. Whether
the trend is cyclical or secular
won't show clearly for a
while, potentially years. (The gold, bond, and equity markets have all
had 20 year production/fallow
cycles).
Who's playing it smarter, the
guy who sold the Raphael painting or the guy who bought it? Bill
Gross fared well indeed on his
stamp sale, even though the
sale was for charity. Was Bill Gross even selling for financial
gain, or to curry favor and good press?
Personally, looks like he
might be angling for a run at politics. Not out of question - a
financier running for office. Look at how
many of the US Secretary of
Treasury's are ex-Goldman Sachs.
What about the burgeoning and
rapidly excessive Chinese art market.
Could it really be that the
wealth buying and selling million dollar pieces of heavy paper are
clueless and that the regular Jack and
Jill trying to make a living
peddling baubles and trinkets are the ones with the right finger on the
market?
Hardly!
The poor, and their agents
(wit: Bank of England) sold gold at the low. All the while the press
eagerly cheering them on. Only, lo
and behold, they sold at
generational lows. Whilst the rich and connected took it off their
hand, no doubt dourly suppressing
giddiness all the while.
Indeed, the reason the
working man must now part with his stuff/tangibles/jewels/inheritance
and HOUSE is that he simply cannot
make it anymore simply
selling his crops. He and she must now sell the seed corn just to eat
this season.
Somebody is eagerly trading
rapidly depreciating fiat for their lifelong accumulations.
Is it you???
7.4.07
Went to a BBQ today.
Received a nice invite: 5
days canoe camping in the Powell Canyon. We'll see...
Fourth of July. Not as
depressed this year as in previous regarding are continually eroding
personal rights. Perhaps the defeat of
the immigration bill gives
pause to think we dodged the BIG bullet for another 12 months. Or,
the beer hasn't yet wore off...
7.3/07
Spent a few days camping with family
THAT happens to be one of the
important things in life. Though, did note in passing that the
head of Beazer homes (BZH) got
caught destroying documents
and is now no longer with the company. Oops, there goes the Christmas
bonus. So, apparently the
documents going through the
shredder documented how the homeowner instructed the rubes how to lie on
loan documents , to
qualify for large debt
packages, so they could buy homes they couldn't afford (in retrospect,
hah!).
6.28.07
Think I just solved that whole fiat/gold currency thing!
some say not enough gold to
trade for goods on a daily basis. some say too much FRN for same. so,
why don't we just use
casino chips?
(don't see $20 checks [more proper terminology than chip] often)
http://cgi.ebay.com/HUNTERS-LADGE-CARSON-CITY-NEVADA-20-CASINO-CHIP-RARE_W0QQitemZ290132148386QQihZ019QQcategoryZ63754QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
6.28.07
Sold MDG @28.40
Nice 17% spike today on a
buyout rumor. I don't follow the potential suitor (Yamaha - AUY) so I'll
sit out while the dust settles.
6.28.07
Sold FRO
should have sold 10 days ago.
6.27.07
Bought GLD
hoping for a nice quick
trade...
6.25.07
Don MacDonald had an interesting show yesterday.
For the first time ever,
actually. Mostly b.c. he let somebody else speak:
John Bogele, founder of
Vanguard funds.
Looks like John has some
conscience creeping into his old age. Spills the beans. You know
that figure always bandied about that the
stock market total return is
'around 10% per annym'? Turns out a few percentage points lower,
in reality. Surprise!
http://www.businesstalkradio.net/weekend_host/Archives/tdms.shtml
6.25.07
Disappearing water sources
fill your tanks while you
can!
http://www.feed24.com/go/49132910
w/o a doubt a large percentage of the world's surface fresh water source
will no longer be available 20 years from now. The real
environmental problem drowned
by all the blather and disinformation.
hey, why not invest in the scam.
go long PHO and PHI (powerhares)
6.25.07
Just a Few Rules to Follow
When you are trying manage
cleanup of a former/current/future mining site, and trying to remove
some of the equipment therein.
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070622/MVN01/706220352/1038/MVN
6.22.07
The Banking Index
Looks like its about to tank!
6.21.07
Summer Solstice
So much sunshine and so
little light...
6.17.07
Quadra reaches 1 Million hours without a lost time safety accident
at the Robinson Mine. Pretty
impressive. A strong safety record indicator is one indicator that the
mine operations are properly run.
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070612/BIZ10/706120323/1071/BIZ
Nice stock price action (all
time highs) confirms:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=qua.to
6.17.07
Newmont Executive strikes back, and sues the NY Times.
Will be interesting to see
how this one turns out. Pretty rare that anybody goes up against
the anti-production bulwark. The amount of
money and political pull
behind the anti-production sector boggles the mind.
http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2007/06/17/news/mining_news/mining1.txt
6.13.07
RIO flashed another buy last week.
nice relative strength
6.13.07
An acquaintance just had a granddaughter born and wondered what the best
30 year investment would be -
with the plan being to give
to the child when they turned 30.
i agree w/ those who said go
long producing land.
look to lock up water rights. look at locking up mineral rights. look
into mining claims is you are in the western US. in the deciduous, look
for regenerating hardwood
forests. buy a fishing hole, or some acreage on the river - where you
can recreate.
here's the deal. you can buy the baddest ass stock or T-bill or handful
or gold or REIT or IPO or coin collection or whatever your flavor.
When the time comes to inherit, the kid will sell the security and buy
what they think they need at that time.
However, let's say you buy
160 on which you can camp; and fish; and campfire; and lay in the
dew-laden-grass together and see silly
shapes in the sky with your
granddaughter. Now, you're building memories. And when time comes
for that child to inherit their land, they
won't think how to shelter
the tax or figure out the step up in basis or the like. They will
look at the land, and think of how wise grandpa
was to invest in that piece
of land; how wise to invest the most previous commodity of all - time -
into the family. And the land becomes
a home and family and
provenance and inheritance and ancestry.
6.11.07
Sold BOL @$ 69.70
bought around 48 last year.
Bausch and Lomb = bread and butter.
Crazy chart! Look at
those islands (tops?)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=bol
6.8.07
Old Widow Spain spends her last few gold coins, and for what?
At least when the Bank Of
England sold the little peeples gold, ‘twas for a reason – to mark the
generational low in gold price.
What shall benefit Spain’s
fire sale?
Sell for reason or sell for
treason!
I remember that John Travolta
movie – A Civil Action. He played a trial lawyer going after Grace (the
asbestos empire). Now, he had not
been getting far and was
pretty much broke as a joke. Naturally everybody had abandoned him,
'cept his good buddy. The good buddy
fronted John every penny he
had, even the five gold krueggerands saved for a rainy day! The dude
sold the gold for an ideal, a reason, a
plan of action (in the
movies, anyway).
The good Queen of Spain sells
her gold gaming she can steal it (or something else) cheaper when the
lights go out…
6.8.07
Ruminations of an Old Man: Charlie Munger (Warren Buffet's sidekick)
let it load and then scroll
to his speech. some thoughts to mull over, for sure.
http://lawmedia.usc.edu/LawMedia4/Viewer/Viewers/Viewer320TR.aspx?mode=Default&peid=9fbec034-0c5a-45f7-bde5-c65e3caef827&pid=4f6df1cd-b2eb-4ddf-9890-9c2846944cf5&playerType=WM7#
did charley sell his soul?
did warren? what is their legacy, or will it be written by their
successor (of billy bob gates?)
Charlie
Munger’s Universal Rules
To get what
you want, deserve what you want.
The highest
love is admiration based love.
Appeal to
interest instead of reason, as Ben Franklin encouraged. Simply do so
from a perched loft full of high motivations.
Wisdom
acquisition is a moral duty. (i.e. learn all your life)
Avoid sloth
and unreliability.
Avoid
zealotry; don’t become an ideologue.
“You don’t
need to hope to persevere” Ferdinand the Great.
Avoid
perverse associations and motivations. Don’t work under those we don’t
admire or like.
Maintain
objectivity
Use
checklist maintenance.
The highest
order: A full and seamless network web of deserved trust.
6.7.07 The Great Bond
Bear -Awake!
After a 25 year slumber, the bond bear
climbs out from his lair – licking his chops- sniffing the wind – and
hungry for what he smells:
burning and twisting wisps of the US
securities market.
Today the 5% yield level on the 10 year UST
is breached (closed at 5.11) with conviction and volume. Major houses
(and foreign
governments) are dumping the US debt – thus
strongly pushing yields up.
Like the little quote – purportedly from Mr.
Gross – from business week.
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jun2007/pi20070607_509919.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_top+story
“Late in the trading day, Bill Gross, head
of PIMCO, which controls several of the world's largest bond and
commodity funds, reversed
his 25-year bullish stance on bonds and
predicted the yield on the 10-year Treasury note could rise as high as
6.5% over the next three to
five years.” Another source quotes him
saying that he is now a “bear market manager”; purpotedly because of
strong worldwide growth.
Of course, much of this blather is just
smoke and mirrors.
On the chart, the 30yr bond now has a gap in
below 108 and is at 18 month support…
No doubt B. Gross will have some smoothing
words to provide flak cover when alan Greenyspin speaks on the 12th and
Bernanke once
again speaks the party line on the 15th.
He’ll lie again, say inflation is contained,
and leave rates (short term – discount rate) same ol’ same ol’. He can
rely on the 30-yr to drag
up the 3 month yield, eventually. If the fed
raises rates, that serves as open admission that the annual inflation
rate is not the 3.1% sold in
the paper, but the actual 9% sold in the
supermarkets, gas stations, pharmacies, and schools. (The European
Central Bank raised their
bank by 0.25 this last week.)
At least, he and his backers (establishment)
hope so. They know that against the backdrop of “All time highs” in the
‘Dow’, (only 30
stocks easily manipulated by purchase of
futures) that the Transport and Utility indices have recently tanked
(indicating recession; and
previously indicated by the inverted yield
curve). Well, last fall the transports tanked and ‘miraculously’
recovered before this re-inflation
of the stock indices.
Will be interesting to see what rabbit hops
out of the hat this month. Since the money is now simultaneously coming
out of the housing,
transport, utility and bond markets; our
current assignment is:
Where the money is going now?
6.2.07
Commemorative Coins
Might be a good point to
begin buying the older commemoratives right now. Soft price
shouldn't last if the overall market stays right.
also, at some point the folks
who were drawn in by modern commem junk might start to look at the older
beauties...
6.1.07
gemini explorations GMXP
setting up a potential
speculative short term trade (buy)
6.1.07
sold AEM today @37.6
bought dec 26th at @30.50
nice week for her, she gets a fortnight off!
5.28.07
Fahrenheit 2007
When the bookseller can't
sell a book, and can't find anyone to take it for free, what's left for
a bibliophile to do?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070528/ap_on_re_us/book_burning
(Burn)
This marks a bottom (but not
the final one) of the 550 year paper market.
Time to buy!
(and when the sociological
response is to fine the guy for burning without a permit, time to short
the society)
5.28.07
Hey, I received a response back from Stu Taylor:
Thanks for your comments.
There is no relationship
between the Eurasian Minerals interview and Don Paul's business
perspective,
Eurasian Minerals appeared to
talk about the company. I don't have an opinion on Eurasian Minerals.
I have opinions on politics,
entertainment facilities, restaurants, etc.
It is my opinion, to put it
politely, that Paul belongs in the same category with Kucinich- TOTALLY
AND COMPLETELY OUT OF
TOUCH. CLUELESS!! Paul will
disappear, and few people will remember who he is.
I don't care what the polls
show (there are a million polls). Paul is "deader than a doornail".
I appreciate your opinion,
and thanks for listening.
Stu Taylor
5.28.07
I listen(ed) to maybe 100 financial radio shows
about 25 on a regular basis.
maybe 5 or 6 actually
represent facts on the ground...
5.28.07
Read a Review by a Miner who Attended the Vegas Money Show Last Week
like one point made: fer
shure the miners need to branch out of their normal cliques and market
their product a little bit.
everyone in the shopping
mall's heard about blood diamonds/dirty gold/cyanide killing all the
poor fishies and destroying the native
villages.
How many know what metals are
essential to their car, their ipod, their computer?
5.27.07
The Game of Life Pushes the Usurers
The Life board game, a family
favorite, replaces cash with the brand-name debt card.
http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/drt/archive/2007/dt070523.html
Get 'em used to providing the
ubiquitous ID card before making any life decision. Early
programming for the whole family!
5.27.07
Letter I sent to Stu Talor
Hello Mr. Taylor:
As a regular listener to your
show (podcast vis businesstalkradio) I found it ironic that directly
after your highlight of Urasia
Minerals you went into your
short review of the 2008 political field and slammed Ron Paul, the only
Republican candidate to hold
gold stock in his portfolio
as divulged via required public disclosure.
Instead of glossing over him
as a 'Characterture of the Republican party' akin to Dennis K., why not
instead explore why he came
in first amongst many polls
following the first Republican debate, and why the national press
(including your show), absolutely
buried this fact under a heap
of ad hominem attacks?
Fox Poll shows Paul came in
second beat McCain, Gulliani
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,272493,00.html
ABC Poll
http://abcnews.go.com/politics/beseenbeheard/popup?id=3135373&POLL288=4000000
MSNBC Poll
Paul won that one, as
prominently displayed on Drudgereport for a few hours (until he took it
down and then refused comment on
the subject).
His performance on the first
debate was in the Top-10 showings on YouTube for the entire week after
the debate.
Why not go through his
platform (along with the other candidates), One by One, and show how any
other candidate reflects the
actual Republican Platform
better than Dr. Paul.
I'd be interested in a
factual discourse on your show.
As is, your hit piece in
passing greatly diminished your credibility on this, and hence other,
subject(s).
One who take the time to
write often represent another 100 who don't make the time...
5.26.06
The Little People's Economy
Listened to a talk show, not
a financial one - just a talk format - on the way to work a couple days
ago. The callers did not have
much positive to say about
the state of their, and their acquaintances, finances nor business
revenue. This echoed some of the
comments I've heard at the
coin show, coin store, paper show, and other financial venues in the
last month. Now, I don't want to
necessarily continue to
assume a negative bias here - even though that has been my inclination
since the formation of this blog in
2000 (and generally correct,
by the way).
So, I chose to conduct some
independent research. Data gathering on the frontlines, so to
speak. What 'convenience' do all we
little people rely on - as
popular as credit cards - to finance our own personal economic machine?
Why, namely, the ATM
machine. So, in a
calculated if somewhat unscientific experiment, I went to my nearest ATM
and picked up all of the receipts just
lying on the ground. (Sure,
this type of recordkeeping could - in fact - bias my studies to the
particular type of folk on the
economic scale who keeps
their affairs in such manner, but so go the vagaries of economic
research.). Here are my findings:
143.24
39.61 (ooh! only another
39cents to go and I can withdraw another 20! thinks the grateful bankee)
0.18
-45.97 (!!!)
477.48
11.47
276.93
0.73
4.14 (just an inquiry, they
didn't even withdraw a 20$).
Average: $100.87
Granted, I don't live in a
high falutin area - just working class US. Still, not sure how
anyone could positively spin the above...
5.22.07
Dumping the dollar – big time goes pro.
Several months ago, China noted pretexts
that it would stop buying USTreasury Notes and begin divesting of its
USdollar hoard.
A few months ago, they officially noted a
less aggressive position buying USTreasuries. However, they never
publicly stated what
they would do with their dollar hoard, until
today:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6675453.stm
Meanwhile, the oil-producing states are
beginning to reset their currency against the relative US dollar value.
Kuwait jumps first:
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=86033&version=1&template_id=48&parent_id=28
5.19.07
Acetylene/Oxygen Welding
Went to welding class, forth of five. I’ve really enjoyed – more than I
though I would. Of course, my artistic skills are practically
nil; but sure is fun to destroy metal!
Even bought a welders’s shoulder jacket and a hood at a garage sale last
weekend. The guy
had a ton
of interesting stuff in his yard. Reminds me that I need to stop by his
house and drop off my card. Told him I would be
back later
in the day but then went to the paper show; and then the A’s
ballgame…(was great to see Barry Bonds strike out to
the
cheers/jeers of the fans. Amazing anybody has the low class to wear a
giants cap! Truly an abomination amongst the sport!).
5.18.07 Plunge in Short Term Rates
Take a look and see the
action here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$IRX
Why is This Happening
The Chinese government, a
major backer of the US dollar - they’ve been the largest buyer of US
Treasury Bills (USTs) - have
seen the US dollar lose
one-third of its value in the last 5 years.
They are now selling US
Treasuries and putting their money into their stock market, the US stock
market and US government
corporation bundled
derivatives.
What Does it Matter ?
The banking and other
financial institutions rely on the short-duration (3 month) yields. This
action will put pressure on the
banking/financial index. A
strong stock market requires firm action in the banking/financial index;
no long-term market rallies
continue without
participation from this index.
The financials and,
especially, the insurance companies have relied even more heavily upon
the short-duration yields ever since the
yield curve flattened to
the point you could make just about as much return on a 3month bill as
you could a 30 year bond. Hence,
nobody wanted to take the
risk in a 30 year position.
National banks only effect
the action of the short duration yields via setting their prime rate.
The market sets the long term yields.
The Chinese Govt. bought
billions in USTreasuries over the last several years and yet the 10-year
benchmark rate never rose
much higher than 5.1%.
The Quandary
What happens when the US
baby boomers, currently holding most their assets in the US housing and
stock markets begin to plow
money into T-Bills for
income? The prices should go up and the yields should go down.
However, in the last few
months, the net flows have been out of USTs and yet the short term rates
have led lower.
Why?
5.15.07
Went to my first paper show in Concord.
Postcards,
advertisements, financial documents, autographs, pictures, etc.
Pretty
similar to a coin show. Some notable differences: no coins; no
children; no presence from a national society; nothing
'professionally graded'.
Apparently
the show was pretty slow, slowest one since the show started at that
particular location in 10 years.
Was
interesting talking to two dealers (who I later found out were father
and son). They filled me in quite a bit about some
backstories
of the Nevada paper market over the last 15 years or so. A valuable
education in itself. Plan on visiting with/buying
from those
guys more often. Also, learned about some upcoming shows, the
state of the market, things like that. They thought
paper was a
pretty good buy at this particular time (since the market is down over
the last few years, having reached a high about
10 years
ago). Of course, they could very well just be talking their book – to me
– a buyer of their wares.
My summary comes down to a
similar point. When folks don't want it (and are burning it in the
street) buy it.
(You can sell notgeld
nowadays).
5.13.07
Was in a Coin Shop the Other Day...
This guy walks in with a few
1980's 'vintage' US mint proof sets. Worthless to begin with, some
einstein buried them in the
backyard for a few years. For
unreason's untold , this dude had dug them up. Of course, there was some
dirt around the
cellophane so he thought he'd
'clean 'em up a little bit'. Soooo, the guy grabbed a squirt
bottle, filled it with pine-sol, and sprayed
away to his hearts content -
to the point the inside of the cellophane and the coins themselves have
spots of pinesol all over them.
Yeah, that's gonna help the
sale price. Go figure, the dealer passed on the 'deal'. However,
give the coins a few years and you
never know- perhaps a bonus
for the toning...
5.13.07
Strong Mining Employment Picture
Not only have the mining
companies been flooding the boards with ads for open positions, now
they're seeing headhunters. This
plainly shows a strong mining
sector.
http://tinyurl.com/2nog9z
5.12.07
As Bullish as I am on Stamps...
Can't help but determine that
every time the USPostal Service raises the price of postage, all those
collections with large
percentages of stamps from
the 1950's and onward (mostly only worth face amount) take a
commensurate percentage hit - decline
in price. Interestingly
enough, this move by the post office to offer first class postage stamps
which are always good for first class
postage (forever stamps), no
matter how many times the first class postage rate goes up, may
represent a return to the time of last
century (and before) where
stamps traded as currency.
In the 1850's and 1860's
stamps traded freely as currency. Not only was coinage in rare
supply, but so was paper. However,
the metals were even more in
demand. Hence the Confederate government and the southern states
scramble for whatever paper
was available to print their
currency. In some instances southern currency, especially in the
latter days of the Civil War, was
printed over newspaper or
other print media. In fact, during those decades 'twas a common
practice to reuse letters. One
person would write on a
virgin piece of paper. The correspondent would reply by turning the
letter upside down and writing their
message in the spaces between
the sentences, or even in the margins.
5.12.07
Another Sign of the Silver Boom
The Cal Neva Casino (downtown
Reno) added another slot machine that pays in silver dollars! That
brings the grand total of
these machines up to two!
5.6.07
China overtakes US on Gold Production
Nevada now bumped to fourth
place - behind China, Australia, Canada.
But would the Las Vegas Sun
report it?
Nope, not a chance. Only
willing to donate space and type and generate a hit piece square on
Nevada's corporate shelters and
business-friendly climate.
Namely - the below piece maligns gold mining at every chance possible.
Forget about reporting actual
declining production numbers,
and the reasons for such (vegas sucking the state's lifeblood of water
and energy whilest blowing it
out her fountains) while
focusing on neon babylon's current paradigm - glossing over the real
estate bust by enfranchising the most
number of
illegals-cum-voters/sun readers possible in the shortest period of time.
The touts tell of economic 'diversifying' by
adding banking and marketing
onto the existing cash-laundry mechanisms/loan
writeoff-havens/FRN-velocity generator.
Her famous 90 day handshake
gives way to the 20 minute snow job:
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/sun/2007/apr/29/566674820.html?mining
5.5.07
Read a Few More Gold-Miner Annual Reports
The Apollo comic book looked
terrible - all around. Metallica did a good job with the report.
Their production and numbers look
decent given where they are
in the growth cycle and considering their assets/reserves. Glencairn
takes the cake for their front page
graphic. Balance sheet
ok but the cashflows ain't pretty.
Though without a doubt my
"Next tour of gold properties" looks like it should ride on the
Glencairn Train - a quick and steamy
jaunt through Nicaragua/Costa
Rica/Panama. Oughta provide a couple nice pictures and places to
chase a plantain with the cold
brew. KGC looks like
they outsourced their circular to a pakistani grammar school finals
project. Should of laid out a couple
$Gs for graphics, boyz.
The production pipeline sure does look tasty. All those notes to
the consolidated statement provides
pause to wonder.
A golden shadow scene to
behold - the struggle these companies wrestle with currently regarding
reporting. Obviously they aren't
sure how to commit to future
US Sarbanes Oxley reporting while simultaneously figuring out the best
way to present new option
reporting requirements.
Really, neither petty nor pretty.
5.4.07
Quaterra buys the Old Anaconda Copper Properties
Nice strategy. Let the
taxpaying fools pay for the environmental cleanup while letting the
corporation grab the goodies. Same as
it ever was. Nevada
screwed up this one. They could have cashflowed the cleanup.
Instead, turned it over to the feds on the 35
year plan...
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070504/MVN01/705040336/1038/MVN
5.4.07
Barrick trying to expand Nv Bald Mountain operations
Project now in the compliance
phase. Major federal actions in the US, including mining/milling
operations, require environmental
analysis under various
federal regulations.
http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2007/05/04/news/mining_news/mining1.txt
5.3.07
Ron Paul Wins the Initial Republican Debate
And Golden State Warriors win
the series over Dallas. There's today's double parlay long shot payoff!
4.29.07
Politician Foibles in Nevada
Per the Reno Gazzette Journal
on 4.29:
"Gov. Jim Gibbons, under an
FBI investigation for his relationship to a defense contractor while he
was a congressman, has a 30
percent job approval rating
after his first four months in office, according to a poll published
Sunday. The statewide poll
conducted for the Reno
Gazette-Journal found that 47 percent disapproved of his performance and
23 percent were unsure."
Heck, if only the guy was a
crook things wouldn't be too bad, just similar to others of his ilk.
Regrettably, he has even deeper
skeletons and issues, as
chronicled here for years. Wait untilth epublic begins to learn of some
of these.
And then, in the other corner
of the state John McCain continues to soot himself in the foot (anytime
mouth is open) campaigning
in Elko.
4.28.07
The Walker Lake Compact Fragments as Fractals
Walker Lake serves as a freshwater
terminal lake, one of only six worldwide. Two are located in Nevada.
Because the Great
Basin serves as the terminal, or endpoint, of all water that falls in the
watershed the two lakes (Walker and Pyramid) serve as
collection ponds filtering all seepage
into groundwater basins.
Since
Walker lake serves as a sump, all solids enter the lake but cannot
escape. Whereas dry lake beds are essentially saltbeds
when dry
and evaporation ponds during the rainy season, Walker lake simply fills
with higher level of solids (salts). Walker Lake
has a
Total Dissolved Solid (TDS) level of 16,000 milligrams per liter (For
comparison, the average ocean TDS level is 32,000).
Although
the lake is far less salty than another lake with extremely low inflows
—the Salton Sea in southern California (over
45,000
milligrams per liter TDS) at the surface, the Salton Sea is dead.
Nobody wants Walker Lake to die, but that is exactly
what is
happening. The death of cooperating on the compact will only further
enable the death of the lake.
Walker Lake provides a home to two
endangered species: both the tui-chub and the Lahontan cutthroat trout.
The lake
additionally serves as an important
waterfowl stopover point along the migrational flyover routes.
The story of Walker Lake water diversion is inherently tied to the larger region including Lakes
Pyramid and Tahoe and the rivers
of
Nevada and eastern California. The
end result for Walker lakes is that diversion for irrigation, farming,
and growth, within a
rather dry period over the last century,
has dropped the lake approximately 150 feet below since its level during
the time of early
Nevada Pioneers.
Las Vegas’ unending quench, especially in
light of continued severe drought of the Colorado Plateau (the source of
most of
Southern Nevada’s waster) led Vegas to
lay claims on what water lies in the northern and lesser populated areas
of the state.
The history and blood spilled over the
western water wars plainly provides dry facts under the cover of good
copy and a story.
http://water.nv.gov/Water%20Planning/walker/walker3.htm
The future is uncertain, and divided.
That this year was the worse
precipitation year in two decades doesn’t help matters…
Once upon a time, Sen. Harry
Reid
would have steered the
process
Now his fingers are in larger
pies.
The State Water Modelers
Build their own reality of
Walker Lake's future
http://www.dri.edu/Home/Features/text/0204_walkerlake_modeling.htm
Two of my favorite
suppositions arising in their assumptions:
1. The State buys 20% of
existing water rights; and
2. Cloud seeding will
increase inflows by 8%
Yep. And my next rip into the
casino will produce two royal flushes; in a row...
Miners need Ore, Power and
WATER.
Mostly.
Look at the financial results
(poor) NEM released this week. Blamed much of it on higher energy
costs and, most ironically,
production of a power plant
dedicated to one of their Nevada mining operations (and further, they
might need to build a power
plant in Ghana). What do
power plants need? Fuel and WATER.
4.27.07
Received two Annual Reports from Kinross
(since they bought out Bema
Gold which I had owned).
Too bad they don't keep track
of who they send out reports; would save money by not mailing circulars
twice. And beyond that,
you've got to wonder about
their record-keeping in other areas of business.
4.26.07
Just Read the Golden Star Annual Report
Two things that stuck with
me:
1. They've held Wassa
dragging on their performance for far too long.
2. The estimated price of
gold in future years used in their impairment analysis:
2007 - $650
2008 - $638
2009 - $592
2010/11 - $562
Otherwise, looks pretty gold.
I'll still hold.
4.24.07
Two areas of Coin Collecting/Exonumia under fire
Medals and Foreign coins.
US Congress passed just one
more b.s. law preventing sale of certain military medals. As far
as Foreign/International coins,
Cyprus has joined a growing
list that wants their coins 'repatriated'. Can't see where that
will help the hobby, but sure to help
move the prices on those
pieces up. Maybe the governments that worry about repatriation
could instead worry more about not
losing so many wars and
prevent their wares from walking away with the victorious army.
4.22.07
Just because you buy a slabbed coin
Doesn't mean it hasn't been
cleaned.
Its just more likely it was
cleaned (or conserved) by a 'professional'.
4.22.07
IDAHO MINING: Silver Bells Ring True
Center
of the Universe: Wallace Idaho
1.
Background and History
Wallace,
and her sister city Kellogg, Idaho, centrally reside smack in the middle
of the worlds richest silver deposit.
Wallace
proper overlies the Couer d’ Alene District. Neighboring districts
include the Morning, Compressor and Golconda
districts.
The map
below shows the mining claims on the Couer d’ Alene District.
http://www.pennaluna.com/maps.htm#map2
2.
Sunshine Scarred
Wallace and
the Sunshine Mine still bear the stigma associated with the worst mining
disaster in US history.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kellogg,_Idaho
Of course,
the mining history grades much finer than that and the deep dwell stopes
offer quite a worthy bit or two for those
willing to
spend the time.
This place
provides a nice introductory write-up on Wallace:
http://wallace-id.com/
3.
Idaho Mining: Politics and Society
The Silver
Valley Mining Association provides great benefit to the rest of the
mining sector and industry vie their
world-class
idea – establishing the Natural Resource Education Center.
http://www.NREO.org.
Their
mission statement is providing education and awareness to local
communities and beyond regarding the importance of mining
to the
fabric of our daily economy. “If it isn’t grown, it must be
mined”. (Reminds me of a bumper sticker I saw in Nevada
once (or
maybe a few more times). The NREO works with teachers to reach
youngsters and explain how the world works based
on metals
and mining. It takes an ever increasing outreach just to fall
behind the environmental radical fringe that equates
mining=earth rape.
One
contingent fighting the slanted media message that mining=faunal and
floral desecration is the Idaho legislative faction. For
instance,
Sen Crapo has recently introduced the
“Fair Treatment for Precious Metals Act.’
This act is
intended to increase investor holdings of precious metals by evening the
tax treatment of Precious Metals compared to
other
‘investment’ classes.
Not the
first time similar legislation has been introduced.
From the
Vegas Sun (?unsure on original citation – ed.)- June 11, 2001.
On Friday, June 8,
Senator Harry Reid (D-Nevada), now the Assistant Majority Leader, and
Senators' Wayne Allard (R-Colorado)
and John Ensign (R-
Nevada), introduced S.1007, the Fair Treatment for Precious Metals
Investors Act.
This act
never passed due to the ‘events’ that happened ten days later.
Originally introduced by Senator Harry Reid, the bill
regrettably
faded into a more tragic national psyche.
Though, as
a point in fact, time has treated Sen. Reid well. Son of a Nevada
Miner, he is now the ranking Senator in the US
Senate.
If congress doesn’t finally level the playing field by reducing the
capital gains on precious metal investment now, will it
ever?!
In 1997 the
US congress did further recognize precious metals as an investment,
despite decades-long efforts to suppress the
price, by
changing the tax code to allow Americans to individually hold metals in
IRAs.
Allow the
good senator to see you off with a warm and fuzzy thought:
“An
industry (mining) with well over a century of experience in Idaho is
well suited to work toward anther century of
innovation, financial success, and conservation. “
Mike Crapo,
R-Idaho. June, 2006
4. A
Random Walk Down Bank Street - Wallace, Idaho
One benefit
derived from enjoying a town during the succulent period of time after
two generations of folks wrote the place off
but before
the masses rush in once again per the predictable and never ending cycle
of boom and bust is that, in the interim, one
can still
find a parking space.
Started my
tour of Bank Street at Northwest Mining Supply. Nice folks with a
great display of old mining equipment and pictures. Drat the luck,
none was available for sale or trade during my brief
lunch-greak-stop-and-say-hello-visit. But, we can always look at
their display:
Wall.Id.NwMinesupply.avi
Moving down
a block, passed the Sterling Mines headquarters:
Wall.Id.Sterling.Hdq.avi
Couldn't
figure out what they did inside (closed for lunch).
Moseying
across the street, always pays to stop in and chat with the local
used-wares (antique) purveyor. You never know what
they might
have, if you only ask:
Wall.Id.Price.MineMaps.avi
5.
Penaluna
The Broker
Historian sells stories forward - rewarding the select searcher for
their inquiries and investments of time and monies
(trading up
copper pennies for silver stocks).
Rambling
round the corner, saw some more beautful history draped lavishly in the
display window box. Not quite like Amsterdam,
but Wallace
Style:
Pennaluna.Intro.avi
Moreover,
I’ll move over (stope talking) and let one of the local historians
Jerome Bunde show you some history and the map
himself:
Wallace.Mining.Video-CDE.District.History
Jerome talks about the history of Penaluna, the sign (not the firm -
would take too long!)
Penaluna.history.wJerome..avi
6.
Find Your Center
WallaceCenterofUniverse.avi
7.
Wallace Mining and Mineral Museum
Had the
pleasure meeting and talking with Norm Radford; friendly and extremely
knowledgeable. His mining museum shows
superlatively, definitely one of the finest in our great Republic.
I like the Tonopah Mining Museum, was smitten with the tiny yet
lovely Gold
Bug Museum in Placerville and have spent many a fine hour at the
Mariposa (Ca State) Mining and Mineral Museum
(nice work
Dave!); but Norm has put together quite a collection. One
scintillating difference - his museum is for sale! Piece by
piece.
Let's here
Norm provide a little bit of history for you in his own words:
WallaceMuseum.Inro.1.avi
The
store/museum current name proper, Silver Capital Arts, on the corner of
6th and Bank, doesn't provide this treasure trove
with the
full glimmer of its contents. Both the the mining collection and
the mineral collection are, by definition, museum quality.
Several of
the mineral specimens grace either the contents or the cover of the
Idaho State mineral publications. In fact, about the
only thing
Norm wouldn't let me photograph was some of the mineral specimens.
Here's a buthchered avi showing off some of the
goods (look
fast!).
Wallace.Museum.2.avi
Give Norm a
call if you're looking for hard to find mining reference material; he's
probably got it.
Silver
Capital Arts
Sixth and
Bank Streets
Wallace Id,
83783
(208)
556-7081.
I found a
few things for my own personal interest (but will probably end up
offering them here anyway at some point after my
voracious
perusal and/or cPen). Here's the live action shot of Norm
returning from the secret library stash with Just What
Mercury
Wanted!
Wall.Id.MineMus.3.avi
Norm also
echoes the story relayed by Jerome that much of the mining manuals and
documents are being re-purchased by the
engineers
and geologists in the field, who need to check up a bit on some of the
historical documentation produced for any one
particular
district, target or ore.
(Turns out
video blogging isn't as easy as it looks. Thanks especially to
Jerome and his lovely wife and Norm!)
8.
Mines, Men (including female men) and Silver
One of the
NREO (see above under Politics and Society) educational advisors hails
from the Farmin family, one of the premier
N. Idaho
settler clans from years back. The Farmin family, for instance,
essentially established the town of Sandpoint Idaho.
Farmin
Family of Sandpoint Id.:
http://www.sandpointonline.com/sandpointmag/smw00/100years.htm
This
article rang home for two reasons, the matriarch - Ella Mae - provides a
similar source namesake for my daughter. Secondly,
this
article quotes and interview one Tammy Farmin, fourth generation
Sandpointer with whom I had the very good fortune of
meeting
when she graciously hosted a dinner party and slideshow at her wonderful
home. Tammy is a very impressive artist and
woman, and
I told her so!
More on
Jerome Bunde, the gracious Wallace host (and careful promoter).
Jerome has worked at Penaluna Mining Exchange,
among other
Idaho mining ventures, for almost 50 years now. Forever, young – he just
took another bride! He had quite a bit of
fair wisdom
gladfully and gleefully imparted to yours truly. One little nugget
I’ll pass on was his observation on the younger miners
of today.
Essentially, Jerome stated that those working the mines back in the late
80’s and early-mid 90’s would blow their hard earned
money on cocaine and booze (not that money earned via mining was ever
easy, but the miners toiled deep and dark for several
years before this recent boom just to keep their employees off the
streets, much less eek out a meager profit or open new areas
for exploration or productions.). Now, rather than party
away their wages, these miners have been putting their sweat equity back
into the firm (as shares or employee owned businesses) and their
equipment and their knowledge and their libraries (competing with me for
mining books), all betting that this mining boom has
actually just begun.
Today the
modern mining family has choices galore. Back in the daze, miners
would often need to eat from the company store,
get well or
die at the company pharmacy, and drink at the company bar:
Ludwig.Nv.Ludwig.Club.25c.token.jpg.jpg
I'll leave you with a picture of the Spokane Mining Exchange, Wallace
Branch, large stock board. (I still need to visit the former
Spokane Exchange, simply didn't have the time last pass through town).
Spokane.Mine.Exch.board.jpg
The blow up of one corner is especially telling: Jerome left the price
mark of gold and silver spot and the price of CDE and HL on
the board as he wrote it on September 10, 2007. You may know
remember (but probably not really know) what happened the
next day. Note that the price of silver and gold were within just
a couple percentage points of generational lows.
Spokane.AgAuquote.9.10.01.jpg
All Wars are Gold Wars.
9.
The Good Miners, Mssrs. Russell and Hopper:
Now,
previously I had mentioned Mr. Russell regarding a molybdenum play in
northern Nevada. To wit:
“But Moly is a strategic play still developing.
I’ve bet on both Golden Phoenix and Idaho General [GMO] and the bet
bought new baby shoes and a couple headaches
to go with them.
The Mount Hope moly property activates the metallic salivary glands.
Although I sold half on the latest run-up when it broke through on major
volume, now I am not so sure I pulled the trigger
at the right time.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GMO&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
(Just a few minutes ago could have sworn a read a press release that
Azteca sold half of today’s volume into the market,
but now the release seems to have disappeared.)
Russell, with Azteca, holds warrants with GMA and was previously with
GMO, so maybe he’s onto something. Dumping
the Hansa name to look in Mexico… hmm. Wonder what he found down there.
At any rate, firm has a funny marketing
angle…
At any rate, somebody(ies) else will catch on to the firm/property.
So what
else has Mr. Russell been interested in? Matt Russell, (a Wallace,
Id. Native) is apparently ready to take over the
Bunker Hill
Mine from Bob Hopper.
http://www.silverminers.com/publications/showpub.aspx?id=5409
(great
article, three weeks old).
10.
What has Bob Hopper done lately?
Well, in
mining, just about everything.
What’s on
his mind now?
“ My
greatest concern is that we are losing the mining philosophy, the mining
mentality.. Kids nowadays are told not get their
hands
dirty…Don’t go to the mine, make something of yourself”.
From:
“Mining the Future: Bob Hopper the Passion of the Silver Valley.
Liz White. Drill and Pick, Fall 2006. Silver Valley Mining
Association.
[This has
got to be the best mining rag not yet online: Drill and Pick –
Silver Valley Mining Association. Only on it’s third edition,
this
official publication of the Silver Valley Mining Association proves
sturdy and assays fine, providing numerous nuggets of
information
for your consideration and reading enjoyment.]
Drill&Pick.spring07.cover.jpg.jpg
Now Mr.
Hoppers concern sets well herein. That sentiment, exactly,
permeates the anti-miner consortium, whose ranks swell
everyday
engorged by press from the environmental one-world movement banked by
the international banking cartel and
produced by
the Los Angles media complex.
Not an easy
group to confront. All that fiat working against you, 24/7/365/
About the
only thing effective to combat that juggernaut, indeed the only thing,
is the work and wisdom and patience of an honest
man.
Though, if
you are patient enough and listen to the earth guiding you down the
shaft to that nugget of enlightenment, the light will
eventually
again reach the surface:
National
Academy of Sciences Report on Superfund and Mining Megasites: Lessons
from the Coeur d’Alene River Basin; Final
Publication. December 2005.
http://www.epa.gov/superfund/reports/coeur.htm
Pretty much
rips the EPA a new one as the report exposes how EPA oversight of mining
cleanup, always political, borders on
fitfully
fanciful as *science*, that elusive barfly, is nowhere to be seen
sidling up at the watering hole along her ever present
compatriots: bad press, inside deals, environmental schmoozing, and the
old-timer bureaucratic incompetence.
The Silver
Valley Mining Association, another good silver mining information
source, close to the source - as it were:
http://www.silverminers.com
11.
Metal Mines Minute
Quiz:
What is the second highest producing (primary) silver mine in the world?
A: Galena
Mine.
Currently
owned by US SilverCorp (Privately held)
Thompson
Creek mine produced 6% of world Moly in 2006
A few more
mines and mining firms with Idaho links or background.
Avino
Silver
Nice
property, poor planning.
Did they or
did they not shut down their mine just right about the bottom of the
precious metal market?
Avino
[Avino.com (ASM.T)] has the Avino silver mine.
Orko silver
has the Santa Monica and La Preciosa properties directly adjacent to the
Avino property, on the Durango Silver
Trend.
OK.V:TSX
The price action in these two issues over the last two months reflects
this reality:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&s=OK.V&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=asm.v
Based on something or another, I've taken some positions - either both
financially or philosophically, on the following issues:
GMO (formerly IGMI.pk). Described previously, currently a hold. (I'm
still in).
Titan Resources (TNRI.pk). Personally, this 18% rally should be
sold. I am no longer in.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=tnri.pk
Just in
Time: Will it work for metals?
One thing I
found quite interesting: In May 2006 our fair planet had a 10-day
above-ground supply of zinc.
Silver Summit - September 2007
Again held in Couer D' Alene this year, with other festivities in
Wallace.
Read all about it:
http://thesilversummit.com/
12.
Hecla Mining
Once a
primary Idaho venture, Hecla today maintains the Lucky Friday silver
mine in Idaho, currently in production, along with
other
producing silver and gold mines in Alaska, Mexico and South America.
The primary property I’ve been following is the
Hollister
property in Nevada. My bets have been placed on their partner in
that operation, Great Basin (GBN). As a point in fact,
however,
Hecla’s share price has outperformed Great Basins. Hecla is
currently the oldest precious metal production firm in
North
America (Hecla, 2006). As such, Hecla’s fortunes, along with the
former Homestake, has been used as proxy for
analyzing
gold company performance over the years. Homestake, however, had
been traded for a longer period of time since
Hecla has
been trading on the NYSE as HL since 1942.
Hecla's
CEO, Phil Baker, will speak at the Silver Summit Conference.
I did have
the good fortune of picking up few reference books from Norm Bradford,
purveyor of the Wallace Mining Museum.
Apparently
all of these books came from the Hecla library:
Mineral Resources of Douglas, Ormsby and Washoe
Counties. Theodore D. Overton. Nevada Bureau of Mines
Bulletin
46. 1947. Ex New Mexico Library; Ex: Ranchers Exploration and
Development Corp; Ex: Hecla Library; Ex: Wallace, Idaho
Mining Museum.
Antimony Deposits of Nevada. Edmond
F. Lawrence. Nevada Bureau of Mines. Mackay School of Mines, University
of
Nevada. Bulletin 61. 1963. Ex New Mexico Library; Ex: Ranchers
Exploration and Development Corp; Ex: Hecla Library;
Ex: Wallace, Idaho Mining Museum.
Quicksilver Deposits in Nevada.
Edgar H. Bailey and David A. Phoenix. USGS. University of Nevada
Bulletin. XXXVIII.
December 1944. Geology and Mining Series No. 41. Nevada State Bureau of
Mines and USGS. Ex: Hecla Library;
Ex: Wallace Mining Museum.
Geothermal Exploration and Development in
Nevada Through 1973. Larry J Garside. Nevada Bureau of Mines
and
Geology. Mackay School of Mines, University of Nevada. Report 21. 1974.
Ex New Mexico Library; Ex: Ranchers Exploration
and Development Corp; Ex: Hecla Library; Ex: Wallace, Idaho Mining
Museum.
Thermal Waters of Nevada. Larry J
Garside and John H. Schilling. Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology.
Mackay School of
Mines,
University of Nevada. Bulletin 91. 1979. Ex New Mexico Library; Ex:
Ranchers Exploration and Development Corp;
Ex: Hecla
Library; Ex: Wallace, Idaho Mining Museum.
The Wild Horse Quicksilver District, Lander
County Nevada. Carle H. Dane and Clyde P. Ross. USGS Bulletin
931-K. 1942.
13.
Mining Document Control
Norm stated
that Hecla still maintains quite an impressive library, but they are all
working documents. That is, the current
collection
is entire focused on currently resource extraction/production, not
historical documents. I did pick up this a nice historical
Hecla
document:
Hecla.Secty.Corr.1921.jpg.jpg
Dated 1921,
the letter shows a simpler day when the secretary of the company would
actually write a letter to the customer. I
seek out
this type of correspondence for multiple reasons.
Firstly,
not much of it exists anymore. Hecla decided to keep her working
library, but not the assorted other paper archives. This
type of
institutional knowledge – the written tome of American business
transactions over the past two hundred years has been
disappearing at an incredible rate. Secondly, few people have
been collecting historical US financial documents. The scripophily
market
(collecting old stock certificates) is little more than 20 years old.
Third; The market is thin, but GROWING. Why
growing?
Other’s have just begun to realize how important, how interesting, how
rare, how informative and how difficult it really
is to build
a cogent/graceful/meaningful financial paper collection that tales a
tell while providing exposure to an infant art market
and asset
class with a growing devotee base.
Fourth; education. “They” don’t teach finance in school.
“They” don’t want you to
learn and
“They” don’t want you to find out what’s really going on. You want
a real education on how the financial markets have
worked, and
who worked whom over the years? Then go to the first-hand historical
record: the financial documents. Financial
forensics
and monetary archeology provide glimpse into the underbelly few ever
imagined existed. Fifth: Paper records, especially
financial
documents, were typically thrown out and/or destroyed. There was
never much saved – much less curated - for
purposes of
posterity; not to mention a future secondary market. Moreover, the
market is expanding.
Need some
more convincing? Here's a quote from a major US paper dealer, Vern
Potter, regarding the last few major shows
from his
latest newsletter (Second Quarter, 2007):
"...a
continued or an increased demand for a broad variety of collectibles was
deserved...a significant increase in the
demand
for Postal and Express History, Stocks and Bonds, and Checks was found."
http://www.vernpotter.com
14.
Lewiston Idaho
Stopped in
and had a great chat with Leroy Huminsky, proprietor of:
Idaho Coins
and Precious Metals.
822 21st
Street
Lewiston
Idaho.
208.746.8411.
He's had
his shop in Lewiston Idaho for almost 25 years. I came in just for
a look around and asked about the usual - Nevada
mining
scripophily, cards, cancels, tokens etc. (Having decided a couple
years ago that coins were expensive and I'd better
gather up
all the mining paper that was still left before anyone else discovered
its undervalued worth). Although remaining Nevada
specific, I
inquired about mining and financial paper that may have come in from the
Montana Copper/Gold fields and the Idaho
Silver
District.
Leroy
mentioned that in all his time running that store, not one piece of what
I'd been looking for had walked in. So, I ended up
just
picking up a couple Buffalo Nickels.
We chatted
for a while about market conditions, and the future of running brick and
mortar coin/metal/collectible shops. He was
particularly interested in the fate and conditions of northern Ca and N,
Nevada stores, with which I am familiar. Basically, let him
know about
several places that have shut down in the last four or five years.
Mostly not because of market conditions, nor because
the
internet was putting them out of business - but primarily because there
was nobody else to run the store after the original
proprietor
retired. A fair number of these stories repeating themselves out
with rising frequency. Let's face it, hard enough to find
help in a
coin store. Just who will you trust to run the counter? Some recent
unknown graduate of the local social-engineering cum
high school
diploma factor. Right!
Now, if the
store owner can't trust someone to watch the store while s/he takes a
lunch break, who will be able to learn the
store/market/customers/inventory/business etc. to take ovre the place
once the coin geezer reaches retirement age?
Extremely
few people available, as it turns out.
Leroy is
lucky enough to have a trustworthy nephew who is not only able but
willing to take over the business.
Very few
other coin store owners have this luxury. The one I frequent most
often in my burgh will shut down his store in a couple
years,
having been open for over 25. Nobody will be able to take over the
operation, so the place will close forever.
The locals
told me not to judge Idaho based upon Lewiston. I thought it ok,
if on its waning legs of the boom curve. How many
more years
does Potlach have left, anyway. Hard to figure really since they
are privately held and don't release their figures. This
point, in
fact, is a sticking point with the locals since Potlach has just started
charging access fees for its thousand of acres in the
surrounding
counties that had been open, gratis, for hunting and fishing for
the past century. Now the firm is pleading poverty and
beginning
to insist on recovering a service charge from the local user population.
Hey, who can blame them?!? They took a page
directly
out of the USForest Service book! (See the story of the Padre National
(hah!) forests unfold over the last five or six years.)
On the way
out of town, drove ID12 between Lewiston and Missoula, Mt.
15. On
the Way to Wallace…Caught a Conversation or two in Missoula, Montana.
Stopped
into Missoula Montana for the evening college coffee café
hangout, shot of lattte, hot meal and a cot. Early in the
morning
scoped out the pawn shop next door to the coffee café. They didn’t
have what I was looking for, but provided the hot
tip to
visit Bruce at Treasure Coins. Turns out Bruce Anderson, the owner
of Treasure Coins in Missoula Montana (141 Main
Street,
can’t miss it; south of the big ‘M’ on the mountain!). tends quite a
nice store. I beat the crowd, early in the morning as it
was and
claimed about half of the tokens he held in stock.
So, that’s
what the store looks like from the outside (I generally don’t ask to
take pictures of a coin store’s inside – considered
poor form
b.c. ). Here’s how to find the place:
http://www.yellowpages.com/sp/moreinfo/index.jsp?listingId=69549572&id=69549572&from=qpibp&qcat=Coin+Dealers+%26+Supplies&qs=MT&qc=Missoula&qcid=209465070
Now,
Bruce’s partner (forgot the guy’s name and lost his card, but shouldn’t
be too hard to find since he sits about 10 feet away)
had the
type of paper ephemera that I was looking for. Picked up a couple pieces
of scripophily and a few bank checques from
the days
when Montana was still a Territory.
Here is one
example of what I purchased:
Hershfield.Montana.Terr.1881.check.obv.jpg.jpg
The partner
states that this type of stuff doesn’t show up often, and when it does
it gets snapped up pretty quickly.
Learned a
few interesting things in my short Montana stay. One tidbit is thus:
When venture capitalists conduct a capital analysis
on private
prisons, they use the figure of $100k per year as the dollar figure to
represent the profit that a prisoner in a private
prisoner
can produce for the holding corporation in any given year.
Stop by and
chat with Bruce Anderson and friends when you get the chance.
141 W. Main
Street
Missoula,
Mt 59802
406.549.1722
16. The Lincoln, Montana Silver Dollar Collection
Lincoln Mt.
resides off HWY 90 near the Idaho border. Thought I’d stop in and
take a look at their silver dollar collection.
Heck, it
was worth it~! Maybe you should too:
Lincoln.Mt.SilverDollars..avi
17. More
Side Trips: Past, Present and Future
Too bad I
didn't have another couple weeks. One place I would've loved to spend
some time is on the Gospel Hump District.
The
discovery of gold in 1898 forged the last gold rush in Idaho, at the
base of Buffalo Hump. The Gospel Hump Wilderness
Area is one
of the few USFS wilderness districts where prospecting and mining has
been grandfathered into enabling legislation.
This place
has a nice write up:
http://web.camasnet.com/~elkcity/buffalo_hump.htm
Could've
visited another gold mining (placer) district.
http://itd.idaho.gov/byways/Online.Brochure/22LostGold/LostGold.htm
Would've
loved to take a 5-day 60-mile into the Sawtooth or Frank Church or
Selway/Bitterroot Wilderness; or hand-fish the
side creeks
flowing into Lochsa River; or cross-country ski for a few days from Lolo
pass; or just hole up in Lolo, Montana or
Kooskia or
Camas Prarie or especially Orofino. No doubt indeed, I could see
spending a piece of time on a piece of property in
that neck
of the woods. Though, of course the weather pretty much sucks
which is why I'm not there anymore!
http://www.lewisandclarkidaho.com/hwy12.htm
Now - to my
credit and as a simple point in fact - I did get the chance to hit the
Johnson/Warm Creek Hotsprings just right!
Well, as
right as one can do these things without my usual entourage...
18.
CODA
So, you've
had the (partial) report/hotwash from a one week trip up in the great
Northwest.
Spent another three weeks in Hawai’i and the Upper Idaho Panhandle but
won’t bore you with the details. (too late. LOL)
Though, more to the
heart of the matter, I was in the company of those whose shall not
appear here.
You get too see some lowlights from three days, I'll keep the
highlights from the other three weeks for myself.
...or for subscribers if this was one of those type of
websites.
4.22.07 An(other?) Honest Dealer
IMO, at least.
Carter Collins
Collectible Coins and Jewelry
226 Shoreline Hwy, Mill Valley, Ca 94941
415.381.6340
Too bad they all aren't as upstanding as Carter.
4.21.2007 Went to the Santa Clara Coin Show.
Over a
hundred dealers. A fair amount of currency, more than I had previously
remembered at this show. Of course, I’d only
started
looking for it lately. Also seemed to be a fair number of stamp dealers
at this show.
Picked up
just one coin, one token and five postcards.
Here's one
of 'em:
Weaverville.Prospector.obv.jpg.jpg
Wow, I love
that shot. Haven't seen much come out of Weaverville, period.
Hard to get there even now - nasty road (299) with
nothing
much on it. If you got some time, take 299 east instead along the
Pit River.
Kagin-Holabird provided a fine display of rare silver ingots and an
incredible collection of Nevada Brothel Tokens. Thanks for
putting the time into setting that one up gents. (And good luck
with things).
The place
was dead, really. Sure, the local basketball team made the playoffs but
can’t see what any other reason there was for
this
lackluster a turnout. My suspicion is that big coin and currency shows
are becoming a thing of the past. Too bad.
Is this
show, the largest in N. California, just one more victim of the internet
market? Poor timing or marketing? Other?
Is the
model dead?
Is Coinmine destined to own and offer the
entire planet's inventory at some point?
4.20.07 Johnson/Warm Springs Idaho.
Nice hot springs! I'll let the pictures do the talking, since
we're all way to removed from the water at this point!
The Start of the Trail:
HotCreek.Id.trailStart.avi
Pileated Woodpecker:
HotCreek.Id.Trail2.Woody..avi
River Bank Hot Water Source and Pool in the River.2:
JJohnsonHotSpr2.ID.3.21.07.avi
The pool and surrounding hydrogeology (for the layperson!)
JJohnsonHotSpr4.ID.3.21.07.avi
Now you go get yourself some!
4.17.07
Yes, metal bars will sink in sandy soil.
The depth/time depends on
many factors. Metal flakes, however will rise (as do glass and
porcelain). Before digging to find your
bars, please consider some
electromagnetic work such as a plain old metal detector with the right
coils and discrimination. Should
that fail, consider a more
robust version, EM61 (time domain). Failing those, ground
penetrating radar could provide some help,
depending on several factors.
Given the shallow groundwater, refraction is probably out of bounds.
4.14.07 Foreclosures Sale Mess
in California
Things have
definitely started to turn south here (north. cal., north SF bay). We
are looking at a few places that will hit
bidforassets.com next month (the county lists tax defaults with this
website). For two of these properties, this will be their fifths
and sixth
auction listings, having received no minimum bids initially (and one of
these went to auction initially for tax arrears of just
91$!!).
The one we’ll actually bid on had the heirs simply walk away from the
property.
Two homes
in our area that will be auctioned at the courthouse steps this month
have loans at least 15% over what the house will
bid.
Zero of the auctions sold last month either. In the main, the
banks are still trying to sell rather than auction. Looks like
they
are willing
to reset the listing three times before punting to auction foreclosure.
Homes still
listed by the dreamer home owners with RE agents are, on average, at
least %30 too high.
In the
nicer neighborhoods, the banks are now beginning to have auctions at the
front door of the house. Haven’t seen this before
around our
parts. Can’t help but think even the neighbors are beginning to
take note of this.
4.14.06
CDE was a buy this last quarter, first time I’ve had it in years…
But, some
PM stox are getting a little bit ahead of themselves
Inter-Sector rotation b4 the earnings a warranted strategy right now
imo.
Predicted Point and Figure
Divergences for Gold Indices
Somebody
provided some speculation that performance predictions provided by point
and figure charts showed a divergence
between the
expected action of the tow major gold indices, the XAU and HUI.
divergence prediction per PF charts
My
speculation, nothing more than that, is perhaps one of the mojo majors
in the XAU is about to get ugly-whacked…
4.14.06
Beauty and Pain
Hiked into
the leper colony on Molokai last month. Such incredible beauty,
overshadowed only by the forlorn yet not forgone
layers of
pain and suffering that descend from the cloud-hidden cliffs and cover
the fields which formerly supported other
communities.
The pain
will find you. So, instead spend your energy looking for the
beauty.
3.30.07 MolyB.Denum
Now, don’t know much about ‘Intermoly’…
But molybdenum (moly) is a strategic play still developing.
I’ve bet on both Golden Phoenix and Idaho General [GMO] and the bet
bought new baby shoes and a couple headaches to go
with them. The Mount Hope moly property activates the metallic salivary
glands.
Although I sold half on the latest run-up when it broke through on major
volume, now I am not so sure I pulled the trigger at the
right time. (Just a few minutes ago could have sworn a read a press
release that Azteca sold half of today’s volume into the market,
but now the release seems to have disappeared.) Russell, with Azteca,
holds warrants with GMA and was previously with GMO,
so maybe he’s onto something. Dumping the Hansa name to look in Mexico…
hmm. Wonder what he found down there. At any
rate, firm has a funny marketing angle…
At any rate, somebody(ies) else will catch on to the firm/property.
[Check the management team!]
3.30.07 Quadra Makes Offer on International
Molybdenum
Hmm…
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/070330/200703300381315001.html?.v=1
QUA.To
Broke through the 100 and 200simpleDMA today. So, I sold (sold
when the 100SMA broke below the 200DMA and bought
back fairly well last month.
See my last write up on the firm was from 12.17.06 titled:
Nevada Copper. The concept, the realities, the companies...
3.28.07
Yes, war metals/materiel
Are in a major bull.
Happy Days!
(not)
3.29.07 Sierra Nevada Snowpack is well below
average
According to the CA Department of Water Resources (Frank Gherke), the
snowpack currently only measures at 46 percent of
normal. Thankfully, last March was wet enough (snowed every cay but
three) that the reservoirs are still near capacity. Snowmelt
from the Sierra Nevada provides one third of California's drinking and
irrigation water.
3.28.07 Going to war with Iran
Is already priced into the market.
Getting out of the war is not…
3.28.07
Today’s Oxymoron:
Safe harbor 401k
3.28.07
Back in Action (Almost/sort of).
Spent the last month in Hawaii and Idaho. Nice. REEEAAAALLLLYYY Nice.
2.22.07 Didn't really expect that
almost 4% rise in Gold yesterday
Neither did anybody else. Doesn't bode well, actually...
Oh well, not that I really
care much. Headed off to Hawaii for three weeks...
2.21.07 Australia Bans Incandescent
Light Bulbs
This bodes quite well for GE (and some waste disposal firms).
Note the mention of their firm at the bottom of this article.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=7431198
The big boys write the environmental regulations, making sure their
competition has no chance at compliance.
By 'saving us from global warming' the useful idiots will develop
additional thousands of tons of hazardous waste and release tons
more mercury into our environment, a priority pollutant under both the
Clean Water Act and the Clean Air. Regrettably, only at
that point will the massive arguments against their foibles begin to
ring overwhelmingly true - even to their arrested development
level of understanding. At which point it becomes time to remove the
mercury from our food chain, they will walk away to 'save'
somebody else.
2.21.07 Went to Traffic Court Today.
I beat the
last rap so figured I might as well fight this one too. Unfortunately, I
opened my mouth when I first received the ticket
and this has
proven troublesome. In court I made two motions, both denied.
However, my motion for continuance via Stipulation
of Trial by
Correspondence was approved. Although I fully expect to lose this
case, forcing the prosecution to spend $4,000 to
collect $185
is a victory much more than pyrrhic.
2.16.07 Went Long GE
Like their position right now both technically and fundamentally.
Also, looking for an entry point on QI
2.16.07 Mining and Environment: Las
Vegas sun article on Nevada Mining Emissions
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/lv-other/2007/feb/14/566660237.html
For the life of me can't figure out why she didn't' mention the recent
work done by the Nevada Department of
Environmental Protection, or the Idaho Department of Environmental
Quality regarding trans-state air media
deposition. Unless, somehow, the usual anti-mining sources weren't
feeding that type of information to our
journalistic brothers and sisters.
oops, looks like the reporter forgot to mention one of the most recent
and exhaustive US studies on mercury
sources and deposition, the
Center for Science and Public
Policy (CSPP) conducted in January 05.
Here's a summary:
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=%5CNation%5Carchive%5C200501%5CNAT20050128a.html
Apparently, the reporter also missed these little tidbits:
Nevada is Home to the Strategic Mercury Stockpile!
and, Nevada is receiving mercury wastes form the rest of the states who
forgot to plan ahead and are otherwise
generally a drain on the production states and getting the weather they
deserve:
To wit (Nv accepting Hg waste from Hillsborough's Defense Logistics
Agency depot; New Haven, In; Binghamton,
N.Y and multiple others states:
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17853932&BRD=1091&PAG=461&dept_id=425742&rfi=6
Guess what, when the military or DOE or any other government agency
hauls hazwaste, some of it ends up where it shouldn't. I've
seen it, first hand, more than once.
Just wait 'til they start shipping the nuke waste!
I think the
100Billion dollar Yucca Mountain study recommended this transport for
getting the nu-ku-laer waste from three mile
island to
Mercury, Nv (after stopping at the mercury pickup and maybe at the
Tastee Freeze outside Indianapolis en-route).
Another no-bid
contract, for sure!
http://cgi.ebay.com/Photo-N9412H-L-049-CONSTELLATION-HAWTHORNE-NEVADA_W0QQitemZ160083895195QQihZ006QQcategoryZ806QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
Certainly hope the sun isn't sinking like Hg through the media to the
level of the review-journals 'news' standards...
2.16.07 Another anti-Hg anti mining,
anti anything 'cept more taxes and regulations bundle of love:
You ever hear about the NGO and Nambla the Clown?
http://www.nevadaconservationleague.org/edu/mercury.htm
2.16.07 Mining
and Politics: Ooops, poor jimboy – Governor of Nevada - in trouble
again/still.
what an incredible surprise. Just a few weeks after he beat the sexual
assault charges against him, poor jimboy now has an FBI
investigation to tend with. Bet it makes him pine
for his glories of yesteryear, such as failed legislation attempts
(ditched and
ridiculed overhaul of 1872 Mining Act just one recent
example of mockery and tomfoolery). Guess the luck never changes,
eh
govner? Maybe your luck doesn’t change because, um,
you make your own luck?
That’s the thing, you were never willing to change your course of action
when you had a chance, and now the stripes have set firm
and permanent.
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070215/NEWS/70215002
2.16.07 mining>power>environment>more
power. Sierra Pacific Doing Well
The parent company of Reno-based Sierra Pacific Power Co., said its
October-December profit jumped 21 percent from the
same period in 2005, to $26.1 million, or 11 cents per share.
They passed through almost another $300k to the methane digester at the
Truckee Meadows waste water plant. Turning waste
into energy.
"Headquartered in Nevada, Sierra Pacific Resources is a holding company
whose principal subsidiaries are Nevada Power
Company, the electric utility for most of southern Nevada, and Sierra
Pacific Power Company, the electric utility for most of
northern Nevada and the Lake Tahoe area of California. Sierra Pacific
Power Company also distributes natural gas in the
Reno-Sparks area of northern Nevada. Other subsidiaries include the
Tuscarora Gas Pipeline Company, which owns 50 percent
interest in an interstate natural gas transmission partnership and
several unregulated energy services companies."
2.15.07 Former Meridian Gold Chief now on
Sierra Pacific Board
LAS VEGAS, NV, Feb 14, 2007 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) -- Sierra Pacific
Resources (SRP,
Trade
) today
announced that Brian J. Kennedy, former president and chief executive
officer of Reno-based Meridian Gold Inc., has been
elected to Sierra Pacific's board of directors, effective immediately.
Kennedy, 63, served as president and CEO of Meridian
Gold, a mining company, from 1996 until his retirement in 2006.
2.12.06 Went Long GFI
Around $17.5
2.11.07 Mining and Labor:
Barrick (ABX) is certainly looking for a number of people in their
Nevada operations:
http://www.elkodaily.com/shared-content/topads/show.php?adid=371974
Teck.Cominco and Dumas are also heavily recruiting for
Nevada miners in Elko. Poaching off ABX and NEM partnership
establishing a mining chair at University of Nevada Elko
community college campus.
Mining: Water, Power, Rocks, Environment, Society and
Labor.
2.9.07 Northern Nevada and California
finally getting some rain
Glad for it!
2.5.07 Comparing two Charts
I've been watching these two dance together for few years and find it
interesting. fco leads and fan follows. fan is more droopy
and sad wheras fco is more buoyant. together they form what looks like a
very tradable SAR band. fco touches fan below which
consistently serves as support. etc.
anybody seen a library of these types of chart pairings elsewhere?
(5yr chart)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FAN.TO&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=fco.to
2.5.07 Macmillan Gold (MMEEF)
down on big volume (comparatively)
Kinross sure has been getting a lot of press of late.
Most of it good. Maybe that's why their hirin' shysters.
2.5.07 The value of a thing
Once in a while I like to get someone thinking about metals.
And I stop and pick up a nice washer off the sidewalk or out of the
gutter.
And I explain how the washer is 'worth' more than the penny in their
pocket.
And how the penny made in 1981 is 'worth' more than a penny.
And I throw the penny in the gutter and put the washer in my pocket...
2.5.07 Sometimes Mining as Part of the
Economy
and Sometimes Mining IS the economy.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/text/2007/jan/14/566649777.html
Think of the kids three ridges over in Vegas, and the issues they're
dealing with on a day to day basis.
Extracting metal from the ground is a slow, grinding, laborious process.
And it builds character, and towns and society. Not to mention anything
you use for transportation or communications.
2.4.06 Book Scanning
Saw a website that had antique books scanned in as PDF.s for sale.
Turns out a good book scanner cost a few thousand dollars.
I've struggled with the issue how to scan without screwing up the book
binding
Did some research and figured the technology was ready for purchase of a
pen-scanner. Here is the firm I bought from:
Got the C-pen 20 for Christmas, but haven't tried it out yet myself.
(other reviews were generally favorable, which is why I went
with this product).
www.cpen.com
Will try to post my experience, review, and scan excerpts when i get to
it...
2.4.06 Kinross is hiring senior legal
counsel for the Reno Office
Maybe those takeovers still, or will, have issues...
2.3.06
Hoarding and Dishoarding
For those that are selling off their
collections, I always ask the following:
Why sell off assets to get more fiat
dollars which are continuously falling in value?
Nice gun collection being parceled out
via auction:
http://www.news-antique.com/?id=782164&keys=online-bidding-firearms
Good western antique book source:
http://www.bookmine.com/bookmine_waa-m.php
2.2.06 Western Water annual
precipitation is way below average.
The January results are in. We need a good March, as February is
typically dry.
2.1.07 Reno/Sparks/Carson
Coin Shops
Gaming and coin collecting have a long and gloried
history
Some of the fabulous coin collections built in
Nevada:
Reno/Sparks/Carson/Tahoe/Virginia is a
great coin/money/collectible type of place.
There is both old and new money in town.
Fast money and slow money. Silver and Gold are mined in Northern
Nevada and
find their way into the cities and
ranches and mints and stores. Additionally, there are many cases over
the years of folks who
came to town and left lighter than they
arrived. More than one soul has sold valuable to catch a
train/car/cab/plane/Nighthorse
out of town.
There are some awesome coin/collectible
hoards that have come out of the town.
For instance, the Redfield Collection.
http://www.carsoncityking.com/Redfield%20Dollars.htm
Also, the Fitzgerald hoard was pretty
incredible.
I’ve been in a couple warehouses myself
in Northern Nevada that blew me away. One of them was owned by Si
Redd, founder
of International Gaming Technology.
Full of antique slot machines and other assorted goodies.
Unfortunately, much of the towns
silver/coin hoards/collections have been parceled out and sold off (a
good thing if you’re buying,
just unfortunate if you like to view
awesome collections intact). For instance, breaking up the
Harrah’s car collection and the
Liberty Belle’s antique collection was
just a crying shame. The Station Casino in Tonopah had one
of the finest antique slot
machine collections in the state. Alas, sold off to pay some bills no
more than 7 or 8 years ago.
There have been a few nice collections
of antique gaining/coin operated machines put together-broken up over
the years. There
have been some rich coin collectors too,
Harold ‘Pappy’ Smith for instance curried fine gold coins.
Ahhh, but onto the remaining venues:
Reno
Southgate Coin at
S Virginia and Mc Carran
(Rusty Goe – owner) has put together a fine selection and is worth
visiting. And, ff
you are looking for rare
vinyl records, ask for Paul (the owner) at Recycled Records – in the
same strip mall.
Grand Gold Coin
http://www.grandgoldcoin.com/
Located in the former
MGM/Hilton now Grand Sierra Resort. I’ve gotten some nice coins there.
It all depends on what type of
mood they're in that day,
basically.
Silver State, at the corner of 1st and Virginia (the
main drag) has a great selection. However, their prices are high
and if you can’t
get past the women at the counter – the service is poor.
Retail type of place.
Second Street
In the 1980’s I could buy bullion/coin
at five separate places in a 1.5 block stretch. One of them was a
walk-up bullion desk.
Now, you can only get jewelry or go into
Reno Coin. Reno Coin is the oldest in Town, since 1964.
Frank Rosa retired about
four years ago, this time for good and
took most of his inventory with him to Hawaii. However, his old partner
bought back in
about a year ago (the folks that tried
to run the store last time sold back out). I have done much of my local
buying in this store
and have always been treated very well.
However, the coin inventory is now somewhat depleted. He is actively
buying casino
chips; and has 100% ebay feedback.
The place across the street has
gold.silver.coins on their marquee, but they only sell coin in jewelry.
However, it is worth
stopping in to see the gold
advertisement sign on the east wall. (I tried to buy it but they
refused).
Wade’s Silver
This is a great store. Much of their
coin inventory came from Reno Coin when Frank liquidated out. Really
they are more of a
western antique place and have some
outstanding items, especially in silver. Friendly guys. On
S. Virginia (east side of the street)
two blocks north of Second St./Cal-Neva.
Pawn Shops
If you know what you are doing, really
doing, you can make some deals/cherry picks. But there are sharks
that swim these
waters for a living. They will try
to take you. I was burned a few times in my young days, but have
turned the tables since I can
now afford to be much more of a
specialist than they can and have gotten ahead in the game.
Antique Stores
Many of these in town. Generally full of
overpriced junk, but there are hidden treasures every blue moon.
Sparks
Downtown (Victorian Square) east and on
the same side of Victorian (‘C’) Street of the Silver Club is a
pawn/jewelry shop. He
rarely sells his coins, but often has a
nice display in a central showcase - calls it his retirement fund, kinda
funny.
There is a place in the Iron Horse
Shopping Center, McCarran at Prater. They used to be located
across the street about two
years ago. I’ve only been in once;
seem to remember they specialized in moderns and hosted newer
collectors.
Carson City
http://www.brokencc.com/index.php
Nice website. I have never dealt with
them.
http://www.oldmint.com/About%20Old%20Mint.htm
Joel is nice guy. Buy enough or
tell some good stories and maybe he’ll offer you a homebrew.
Also note, if you are in Carson there
are two other numismatic places worth a visit. Next door to
oldmint coin is the Carson
Nugget. They have a dollar craps table
but more importantly have a very nice display of gold nuggets in a
showcase just inside the
front door (off 395).
Yes, the old Carson City Mint is worth
the tour.
The great state of NV was admitted to
the union, in large part, to the silver reserves of virginia and silver
cities about 20 miles
from the former mint.
Once the stalwart of western coin
production; the CC mint now provides those interested few a glimpse into
what formerly
provided for a once-great monetary
foundation ( and to pay off union scrip, of course ) . her building
edifice once the grand dame
of the State of Nevada's Capitol,
relegated to obscurity and occasionally called in to bunt or even
sacrifice hit during pre-season,
now overshadowed by the many
warehouses of bureaucracy on all sides. the full splendor of grand
pronunciation of ounces
produced and witty documentaries by
Mark Twain now just echoes in a building empty save for relics of the
past collecting dust,
and trumped by the living men of state
calling for higher taxes to pave the way into the new glory days...
Additionally, the bar across from the
capital is worth a stop, one of the oldest bars in the state. A
cigar bar 2 blocks south along
395 is also worth a stop, drink and
smoke. Don’t bother with the hot spring in town, or the maximum
security prison.
Tahoe
Tahoe Coin and Collectibles sometimes
has some good stuff too.
Virginia City
The Silver Dollar Saloon has a mural
where the big woman (30 foot tall) wears a dress made of silver dollars.
And I've previously mentioned that the Marshall Mint and
Museum in Virginia City is worth a visit...
1.26.06
The Day is Getting Closer
When those who hold and trade gold
for goods and services will be declared enemy combatants or some other similar
denigrating
term by the US and her bloc.
Meanwhile, only trade using the FRN, and then only cyber digits floating
as the Amero, will be
allowed the 'privileges of
freedom' whereas those in gold shall fell well the reprisals and
retributions of the US police mechanisms.
The police mechanism,
international wing, shall ensure the denouement of those holding Gold -
Our Constitutional Republic's
original and only legal
currency - Dollar - is complete and devastating.
Meanwhile, countries all over the
world are selling US debt and setting up mechanisms where gold can trade.
Be sure they have
already, or will soon,
receive the label as "Axis of Evil", "Axes of the Weevil", "Really green
meanies", "Sponsors of Reason or
Otherwise Against Us and
Hence Fully Deserving of Economic Blockade and/or Bunker Busting Carpet
Bombing".
1.22.07 Don't
Mind the Cold, Just the Fire Dying Out
Boo Hoo Hoo, nobody wants our debt no
mo.
OPEC sells massive amounts of US
treasury bills every time the price of oil drops another 10 dollar level.
Really, though they're
not too worried as the
specialists love velocity and volatility in a market.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a5_a16pzE3rs&refer=home
Sure they've got money to invest and
drive up the interest rates, doesn't everybody? Look at all the money in
the housing ATM?
(...oops). Oh well,
easy come easy go.
(But really, when you factor in all
the cash that corporate america is sitting on, just another reason for the rise
in interest rates - so
the theory goes. But
then, you've got to figure if the best thing they can think of is to
hold cash during this recent nasty dollar
decline, they've obviously
used up all their good ideas - except backdating options of course).
The beauty of looking at the past
(like charts) is clarity that shines through the obviously opaque; like - what
does diversify mean?
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-11-09T170612Z_01_N09405530_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-4.XML
For the speechwriter, diversity means
whatever you need it to mean. For China, it means she's dumped almost 2%
of her UST
reserves in the last 12
months. OF course, I've sold more - but I have better choices.
And now, the great thinker - the one
and only GW will give a speech on all kinds of nonsense tomorrow, including
global warming.
Hence, is not the entire
Uranium sector is a sell as 'Twas a buy several months back when Goldman
Sachs began publishing $100
oil. So, now you
know what to buy after the speech tomorrow, right?
Then again, within that context -
this story gets a little scary:
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aWzeLjJpZTPA&refer=home
1.20.07 Went and
Saw a Fire Opera the Other Day
Nice way to spend an evening.
The Crucible, in Oakland California put on the show.
http://www.TheCrucible.org.
Professional ballet dancers,
fireartists, acrobats, breakdancers, and similar merriment. The fire
displays were extremely well
placed, artistic, and well
executed. Some of the better fire dancing I've seen indoors. Some
of the stunts the women perform
without a net are pretty
spectacular. The performance was a little over one and a half
hours. This was the first night of the run,
and the only one that wasn't
sold out days in advance. All last week were trial performances. One of
those performances had the
fire sprinkler go off in the
middle of the show, requiring service by the fire marshal and 1.5 hour
delay!
All in all a hot rollicking time, but
not quite on the extravaganza scale of burning man. Though - much tighter
choreography, of
course.
The Crucible provides classes in many
of the metalbug arts favored here at Coinmine including the following:
-
Blacksmithing
-
Fire Performance
-
Foundry and Moldmaking
-
Glass
-
Jewelry
-
Kinetics
-
Machine Shop
-
Neon an Light
-
Stonecarving
-
Paper Works
-
Welding
-
Woodworking
(This years burning man theme: The
Green Man)
1.19.07 Interesting story:
escl.pk
Calculating book value on
PM/collectible company requires some artistic license for sure. Thoughts
roam to Amark and how
much they must be worth
along, at this point in the great precious metal bull market...
1.19.07 The
Little Power Plant Under the Radar
Good read.
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070110/TT/701100473/1047/TT
Q: what's the lesson?
A: given enough time,
distraction and political attempts - there is a way around everything.
Lassen County is one of the
most geothermally active regions of the state, and they get the coal
plant!
kinda like iran/jordan and a
nuk-u-leor plant...
1.19.07 Who
owns options on nv minelands --
look at the ratio (bottom section of the page) between
claims/mines/plans/notices.
http://www.ewg.org/sites/mining_google/US/search.php?statemap=NV
1.19.07 What
does 'Is' mean?
Much less "perennial yield", "vadose
zone" and "surface-to-groundwater recharge
1.17.07 The
Fidelity Trust of Character
Takes a very long time to build up
that account, and is all too easy to over-draw. Character shows under
pressure. Some tips for
crisis management:
Tell it All.
Tell it Early
Tell it Yourself.
1.15.07
Resetting the Plunging Real Estate Market
We've noticed this around our
neighborhood. Three houses, each within a few blocks of each other and
each having about 200
days on market, have shiny
new signs in the front yard to accompany the shiny new realtors.
Once you find out about their dirty
trick, should be good for
another 5% off the retail price as you coyly imply their dishonesty in
marketing likely permeates all other
aspects of their dealings and
divulgences. Why trust how long ago they said they replaced
piping, roof, or wiring. These
documents can also be
altered.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2007/01/05/carollloyd.DTL&hw=resetting&sn=003&sc=662
1.15.07 The
waterpack this year in Ca and Nv. is quite poor to date.
Since the Walker Lake discussions
finally fell apart (parties stopped talking) after three years all eyes now turn
to tow locations in
the State: Lake Mead and
Churchill County.
Here is a good little write up about
how the agricultural, development, and military forces are developing the
framework for the
steady and eventual transfer
of water, both rights and incarnate, from the ranchers to the box
stores, suburban subdivisions, and
expanding military.
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070112/FALLON/701120403/1029
1.14.06 Read the
Bema/Kinross Transaction Circular over the Weekend
Well, at least most the consonants.
Looks pretty good too me. I've held on to BGO since 0.66US, despite the harpies
and sirens. One interesting 'material fact' is the establishment of B2
gold, operated by current BGO management. Since they will hold %50 of
Bema's Kupol east and west projects, does that mean certain KGC
consillierges also mirrored
the harpies concern about nationalization in Russia? At what point
does greed get the best of them?
On another note, since this is not
just a stock transfer, but includes a (very small) cash payout, is the cash
payout a taxable event?
Even in a non-taxable
account? I realize that receipt of KGC shares for BGO will not
recognize a taxable capital gain.
The KGC sheet took a major turn up
over the last year. Revenues between 05 and 06 were virtually unchanged
between 12
months of 05 and first 9
months of 06, but look at the difference in earnings. Thank the
price of precious metals. Though, no
doubt management claims a
victory by nicely incorporating TVX and the other minions bought just
couple years ago. Looks like
Kinross would rather stay in
debt and have more properties and potential production than maintain
their recently received
(relatively) clean balance
sheet.
Personally, I'm all for it. The
combined firm will have nice properties in US, Canada, Russia, Chile and Brazil.
All my favorite
sport scars!
Now, as long as the squeaky-clean
Federal Anti-Monopoly Service of the Russian Federation shows no
quarrel we're good to go,
right?
1.14.07 Heard
Steve Forbes on a Couple Radio Shows over the Weekend
Still prattling on about reducing
the size of the IRS and reducing the size of the federal reserve (not
federal and not a reserve).
He thinks we could all send
in our taxed on a postcard once his flat tax is implementing and the fed
could be reduced in size if they
only printed dollars in
reaction to market moves made by gold. Until he actually begins
calling for eliminating these functions, his
red herrings continue to pile
up and stink a little more every year. Just another contrived
distraction.
1.13.07
Went to the San Jose Coin Show Today.
Apparently it’s the last time the show will be in
the Parkside Hall on Park Avenue. Next year the show will be at the Fairgrounds.
Currently the show is in a great location, IMO – right next to the
Technology Museum. Some
complain about lack of parking but
I've never had a problem. The fairgrounds might
be a little easier to get to, at least.
Word was the show was pretty slow yesterday,
though today had a larger crowd and more business from the public.
Actually I
only bought one coin, (blew all my dough
on the entrance fee) but would have bought
several tokens and Nevada paper – stuff
I’ve been more into lately. The weather was
clear but cold and windy. Last year was quite rainy. I guess the wind is
why they
didn't put up the sandwich board signs as they
did previously stating "Coin Show Here". IMO that helps bring in retail
traffic. The
hall is hard to find from the street - basically
you have know idea that a coin show is even going on. Improving potential
customer
access, and comfort once there, should always be
a priority. For example, they closed the snack bar at 2 whereas the show
ran
until 6. Those folks who get hungry after
two had to leave the bourse to sate their hunger. Some percentage of them
won't come
back to the show, once they leave.
There were only 5 or 6 or so dealer tables
empty, so the floor had a good dealer show of hands, mostly N. Ca but a few from
far
a field. I remember thinking that the host coin club put on a nice
display, though truth be told I can't remember much of it as I
write today. (On the other hand, I definitely remember the Panama
Exposition display at last yea's Santa Clara show!)
One thing I noticed
is that several of the dealers had very minimal wares on display. Do
believe part of the reason is the highly
publicized
robbery at the FUN show in Florida last week. That hit made the major
news media. Perhaps a few people stayed
home to
watch the New Orleans playoff game. Something they did different this
year is that they attempted to make small dealers,
those
without paid floor space, pay for a temporary display identification.
Personally, don't believe it was very effective. Noticed
some folks
believe the coin market has softened significantly, but I didn't see too
much evidence of that in the prices; but naturally
that is a
small slice of observation. One thing I did see more of this time
was folks bringing in some nicer pieces from home for sell.
Per my
notes at this same show last year the strengths of Morgan VAMs and Toned
coins showed noticeable weakness; this
proved the
harbinger for the rest of the year. Didn't really notice any
trends yesterday to speak of - perhaps public selling into
these
still-health prices remains my major observation.
Two blocks east was a group of
forty or so folks protesting in front of the federal building. They were waving
flags and showing
the message that they were
against illegal immigration. Should have tried to sell them raffle
tickets for the gold piece...
1.11.07
Discovery of the exotic Zebra Mussel in Lake Mead
Could force the compact in ways
previously not imagined.
1.10.07 Get it
in Writing
Someone sent me a very good piece of prose the other day, an economic treatise
and historic reflection of youth rolled-up-in-one.
I suggested they consider keeping everything they wrote in a format that you can
pass on to others, or just leave hanging
somewhere as testimony to your observations. Much great stuff is
now lost to the aether, never to come back - just as they had
written about. And that isn’t just a shame, its potentially preventable.
1.8.07 Tahoe Fun
My buddy from grade school got a week at Tahoe Seasons Resort for $400/week on
auctionbid. The place had a little
kitchenette and sauna tub and was literally across the street from the
lift/gondola on the western property of Heavenly ski resort. I
recommend the place, for sure. Was going to be $125 a night at any hotel
for sat or sun. The old Caesers Tahoe is now
Monteblue. We saw a show there. Every other table had 2 or 3 empty
drinks in front of them, my buddy and I had 10 or 11.
Which might explain why my buddy jumped on stage near the end of the
show and tried to kiss the (female) guitarist – just before
the two beefy security guards jumped his sorry butt and threw him out of
the show. As I left to retrieve him he was talking
enough $hit to get 86d from the casino, but I dragged him out of the
place just in time.
Last time I saw a show at Ceasers was in 1987, Jerry Garcia Band. The
deadheads brought in their pets and were throwing
Frisbees on the gambling bourse and smoking copious amounts of something
(at the time any measurable amount in Nv. was a
felony) in the showroom.
So, guess I usually have a good time at that place. But, Tahoe
needs snow – in a bad way.
1.3.07
Why all the predictions for a terrorist attack in 2007
Maybe because they’re in
the advanced planning stages right now and this is a call for volunteer
labor. Not too many folks
focused on
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's speech at the end
of last year (the current President of Iran for those with political
awareness deficiencies) but his call for
the apaocalypse sounds and feels eerily familiar:
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=52071
(9.21.06)
Why does his version of
the coming apocalypse sound so similar to President Bush’s and Pat
Robertson’s fears/predictions/hopes
and plans? Well,
because all those folks are on the same team, cooperatively working
toward their shared goal. In this case, it
truly is them vs. us.
The gameplan here in the
US is another ‘terrorist’ attack, pretty much planned and funded by the
same government agencies as
the last one
(US/Israel/Arabia) but with a few more ‘partners’ this time. The target
is a mass casualty event that crosses the
border (either US/Canada or Mexico/US). The goal is to show that
the borders are truly indefensible, and that Canada/US/Mexico
must ‘partner up’ to
assure North America borders as one unit. Naturally, this is simply the
next phase following NAFTA/CAFTA
to eradicate national
sovereignty in each of those countries. The first step is removal of
trade hegemony, the next step is removal of
borders, the third step is
removal of currency and trade decisions. This will be done by
implementation of the Amero – the
currency which will trade
within USMEXICAN.
Look for it coming soon at
a boxstore near you.
1.2.07
Today the nation celebrated the life of former President Gerald Ford.
Frankly, I don’t
think may people cared, much less though of, his life much in the last 30 years.
He was the only president I ever
saw live. I
still remember the event today, the boredom stuck with me all these
years. Curiously enough the speech was at the
Cherrywood
Mall in Rockford,. Ca - the same place that supposedly some loon
tried to blow up a couple weeks ago. Both the
mall and
the man were somewhat forgettable, and I imagine that will be both their
fate, like most everything else, in due time.
May every name
Who’ve carved the
same
Enter a lighter
shaft
may the golden haze
cure darker hues,
and
softly brighten
those family days
